OCTAVE-the-RAVE

Here's a quick quiz, fellow bloggers.  What do Taylor's Special, Ogygian, Generous, Forty Niner, Precise End, Jolie's Halo, Mining, End Sweep, Afleet, Soviet Star, and Swept Overboard have in common?  Give up?  I bet you'd know if I added Sunday Silence, War Emblem, and Roses in May to that list!  That's right: all were purchased privately by foreign interests and exported to stand stud in Japan.  Can you fathom the impact the loss of these stallions has had on the quality of American racing over the past 25 years?  If you can't, consider this.  As of 2005, Sunday Silence alone had 1,408 registered foals.  Between 1995 and 2005, his progeny won a staggering 181 graded stakes races around the world.  And that's just Sunday Silence!  Now, rumor has it the Japanese are in serious negotiations with the attorneys for Cash is King Racing to purchase Afleet Alex.  Far be it for me to suggest that a horse owner should be denied the right to sell his assets to whomever he pleases.  Such rights are the cornerstones of democracy and free enterprise.  The only places here in the US where democracy and free enterprise no longer exist are the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, and the PGA & LPGA Tours, each of which is ruled by an all-powerful Commissioner, and each of which has grown exponentially since adopting that heretical concept!  Meanwhile, the other two sports beside ours that continue to resist unification - boxing and tennis -- are awash in red ink, drowning in red tape, and slowly oozing into the primordial muck of irrelevance.  Boxing? Personally, I could care less if it ceased to exist.  Tennis?  Wake me when Anna Kournikova comes out of retirement.  Afleet Alex?  The thought of losing him to the Japanese fresh on the heels of losing Barbaro's bloodline makes me absolutely crazy, because I know, categorically and without doubt, that if racing had a Commissioner, by now he'd be just as frustrated as I.  Frustrated enough, I'm convinced, that long ago he would have saddled the Japanese with a simple export tax, just like our Government does to help control the flow of American products overseas.  The Japanese want to own Afleet Alex?  Fine, they can have him, for whatever deal they can negotiate with the seller.  However, if they want to remove him from American soil, that's a whole different kettle of sushi.  To do that, they'll have to pay an export tax to the Commissioner's Office in the form of a small stipend into the Disabled Jockey's Fund.  In my estimation, a reasonable figure for a stallion of Afleet Alex's considerable potential would be ... say ... in the neighborhood of ... ohhhhhhh ... $25,000,000!  In cash.  American cash, not friggen' yen.  What's that you say?  Too much?  Unreasonable?  Exorbitant?  Oh yeah?  Well, guess what?  TFB, cuz you aren't the Commissioner of this Blog.  I am!  Get the pernt?  Thank you!  Hopefully ... someday ... so, too, will racing.

Octave the Rave

As most of you know, Andy Beyer was among Barbaro's loudest critics leading up to the Derby.  At every turn, he reminded the public that "no horse in 50 years had won the Derby coming off a 5-week layoff."  At the same time, he aggressively touted SNS as the "now horse" and his top choice -- a common miler we now know couldn't carry Barbaro's feed tub.  Even after the Derby, Mr. Beyer was still making excuses for SNS, and was less-than-glowing in his praise of Barbaro's effort, as evidenced by the pedestrian 111 Beyer Figure he ascribed to Barbaro.  Following Barbaro's tragic breakdown and Mr. Beyer's 113 for Bernardini in the Preakness, he has come under intense fire from racing fans the world over seeking an explanation for Barbaro's mysterious figure.  To date, Mr. Beyer stedfastly has refused comment.  Here's what bothers me.  In 2001, Mr. Beyer touted Monarchos as his top choice, one of few racing scribes who selected him over Point Given.  Monarchos' Derby figure of 116 lives on today as the highest Beyer speed figure in Derby history.  Coincidence?  You be the judge.  Monarchos had a perfect trip, no traffic, no trouble, and the fastest fractions in the Derby's 130-year history to run at.  But far more telling is this: on that particular day, two long-standing CD track records already had been broken, and a third tied.  Three track records in one day is unheard of for any track, never mind one of the oldest in the nation!!!!  The track that day was other-worldly abnormal.  And yet, Monachos' last quarter of :25 (:24.97) was three lengths slower than Barbaro's, and Barbaro ran his on a dead, glib racing surface.  Moreover, Barbaro was so in-hand at the wire that he was 15-20 lengths clear of the field in the gallop-out before the outriders even could get to him.  And that, I'll remind you, was after going to his knees at the start!!!!  Even visually, the two races are light-years apart.  Monarchos ran past a bunch of gasping horses, and then drifted-out in the final 16th.  Barbaro was so leveled and one-laned he looked more like a world-class sprinter finishing-up a 5/8ths work.  116 for Monarchos versus 111 for Barbaro?  Utterly preposterous.  Until Andy Beyer finally has the courage to confront his critics and explain with reasonable logic this seemingly inexplicable dichotomy, I for one forever will believe it is a function of racing's biggest ego once again run amuck.

Octave the Rave

Open the Daily Racing Form to any track, on any day, and you'll find "trouble lines" awash in comments like, "Hit gate," "Bumped at start," and "Traffic 1^st turn."  In light of the fact that roughly 82.6 percent of all runners hit the gate, get bumped at the start, and/or encounter traffic going into the first turn, I have wondered for years what purpose such meaningless drivel serves?  Trouble lines, I respectfully submit, are supposed to be significant, contributing factors that adversely affect a horse's performance, not half-baked excuses for horses that are ill-prepared, unfit, outclassed, over-their-heads, held-together-with-spit-and-glue, or just plain lumbering rats.  Would it not be more beneficial as a handicapping tool for the DRF simply to state "No excuses," and let it go at that?  

Six years ago, I addressed this very issue of "trouble lines" in a feature article published in Horseplayer Magazine.  The gist of the article was about horses that fail to change leads in the stretch, and the dramatic effect that phenomenon has on a horse's final performance.  My hope back then was that Equibase/DRF would look seriously into adding "DNCL," or "did not change leads," into its trouble lines.  Instead, six years and a half-dozen price increases later, the quality of "trouble line" information in the DRF not only has failed to evolve, in my opinion it is today so contrived as to render it useless as a handicapping tool. Given the fact that the Daily Racing Form routinely tops the list of most profitable daily publications on the planet, surely they can afford to insist on racing analysts whose analytical skills extend beyond a cursory understanding of the game.  Moreover, as America's self-styled Racing Authority, it seems to me they have a written-in-stone obligation to their constituency to ensure not just the integrity of this critical information, but also the depth and breadth, as well.