POLYTRACK or POLLYANNA?

I'm sure you're all familiar with the origin of Ivory Soap, right?  How the guy in charge of watching the 20-minute whip-vat timer went outside; smoked a joint; came back in; nodded out; woke-up a hour later; told no one; sent the product on to the production line for final caking where the QC folks discovered it floated, the result of all the extra air in the mixture caused by the over-whipping; and thus was born one of the most enduring and beloved products in home health care history -- invented, no less, by a pot-smoking bonehead!

Well, since I first picked-up a handful of Polytrack in Lexington, KY, I've had similar suspicions about its origin.  For those who don't know, Polytrack is a combination of polypropylene, rubber, and wax.  As the story goes, an English commoner named Martin Collins combined these three unique ingredients back in the mid-70's with the specific intent - the specific intent, mind you - of marketing the final product to the Equine Industry as a replacement for dirt.

Now let's stop right there, shall we?  On a scale of 1 to 10, how plausible is that scenario?  How plausible is it that some bloke with absolutely no chemical nor scientific background had the capacity to craft such a revolutionary vision?  Mind you, we're talking about a replacement for mother earth here!   I remember the furor in the religious community when Monsanto announced it was conducting research on a synthetic substitute for God's grass.  It would take another eight years and $25 million for some of their more brilliant scientists to develop what we know today as Astro Turf.  Yet we're to believe an English commoner not only set-out to invent a material superior to nature's soil, but did it under the radar with no scientific background, no funding, and basically in his spare time?  Never mind the product he purportedly envisioned as the quintessential substitute for mother nature's soil was what again?  Wax-coated poly-rubber particles?

Your attention please: Ms. Ferry.  Ms. Tooth Ferry, please meet your party in the baggage claim area!

I have a different theory.  Mind you, it's only a theory, but one that strikes me as far more likely and logical, given a commonality of knowledge about what was going on in the world at exactly the time this stuff first surfaced.

You might recall during the mid-70's there was a worldwide glut of two separate and distinct products that were causing enormous financial and logistical problems for their respective industries.  The first was old tires, stacked-up in junkyards and landfills around the globe, and under relentless attack by the world's first-ever waive of high profile environmental zealots.  Remember, this was before recycling technologies were in place, and after the burning ban had been put into law. 

The other monumnetal worldwide glut was polyester clothing.  I was in that business and remember when the material went from fashionably chic to totally taboo seemingly overnight.  I also recall reports of hundreds of thousands of square feet of warehouse space in garment districts around the world, including England, jammed to the rafters with polyester clothes that manufacturers couldn't give away. 

Well, guess what you get if you put a warehouse full of polyester clothing and several thousand old tires through a 1975 Morbark Wolverine Model 3300 Super Chipper, coat the pulverized final particles in Aunt Fanny's bees wax, and find some country bumpkins gullible enough to buy into your scientific fairy tale?   

Keeneland!

I don't know about you, but it sure sounds like a bunch of floating soap to me.

Octave-the-Rave

 
  • »Permalink
  • 2 Comments
  • Send entry
  • Posted by:Octave
  • in:Handicapping

HANDI-RECAPPING QUICKIE!!

I'm sure you're all aware that a 34-1 shot named Embossed won Kentucky Downs' premiere race yesterday.  The story in today's DRF on-line called him a "shocking" winner.  Shocking, indeed, to anyone who still uses the DRF! 

He was anything but to me.

As you know, I'm a huge fan of the Brisnet PP's, so much so that I hardly can read the DRF anymore, so limited is the information it provides by comparison.  Yesterday's G3 Kentucky Turf Cup was contested at a mile and a half on one of the most unusual turf courses in America.  Only two entrants had run previously over the course, including the 6/5 favorite Silverfoot, who was totally washed out in the paddock on a cool day.  The rest appeared to be pretty evenly matched, so I began looking for discriminators.  One stuck out like the proverbial wedding phallus.  Among the many, many angles the Brisnet PP's provide that the DRF does not is the average winning distance (AWD) of the horse's sire and dam sire.  Rarely anymore do you see a sire/dam sire with an AWD beyond 10F, or a mile-an-a-quarter, and the overwhelming majority are in the 6.5F - 8.5F range.

Get this.  Embossed's sire's AWD was 8.4F.  His dam sire's AWD was a whopping 13.7F!!!!  I had to get a calculator to figure-out how far that is.  FTR, it's a staggering one-and-three-quarters miles.  That's his average winning distance, which means of course he had to win more than a few races and 2 miles plus to achieve a 1.75 mile average distance!  Better still, Embossed was the only horse in the race never to have run the 1.5 mile distance of the KyTrfCup.  It was like his owners were sitting on this race, and had been for some time.  Best of all, he was a legitimate 12-1 in the morning line, having competed against the likes of Brilliant, Outer Marker, Minister's Joy, and Heroic Deed at CD and Keeneland, and was being sent-off at a ridiculous 34-1 in what amounted to a glorified NX3, discounting the washed-out 6/5 Silverfoot.

Now, knowing all that, is there anyone who still would call Embossed's victory "shocking?"  More to the point, what on earth would possess anyone to continue paying $5 for the DRF when you can read all the articles on line a day in advance of everyone else for free, and spend 40% less for PP's that are so vastly superior it isn't even subject to debate?  And even if they cost twice that much, I paid for mine yesterday for the next year on one race solely on information provided in these PP's that does not exist in the DRF!

Octave-the-Rave

 
  • »Permalink
  • 6 Comments
  • Send entry
  • Posted by:Octave
  • in:Handicapping

AN INESCAPABLE REALITY ...

While we wait to see if The Shark remembered to take his AADD meds this week, here's a little something I wanted to share with you.

The other day I got a very thoughtful e-mail from someone involved in this competition whose opinion I hold in the highest regard, and without whom these past few months would not have been nearly as much fun.  The gist of the e-mail was about my compulsion with the idea of a global ruling body for the sport; how he agreed 100 percent with both the concept and the need; but that I was peeing up a rope!  His exact words were, "It'll never happen in my lifetime!"

In principle, of course, he's right.  With the explosion of so many new racetracks and casinos over the past 10 years further diluting an already decreasing fan base and revenue stream, adversarial relationships not only are to be expected, they're unavoidable.  Worse, each is an independent, self-governing entity, subject only to the by-laws of its state.  As such, I understand perfectly how the idea of harnessing so many competing factions under one jurisdictional umbrella would strike most as wishful thinking, and a practical impossibility. 

What I would offer in response to such thinking is the following: the American Football League; the American Basketball Association; the Independent Hockey League; and the World Golf Tour, to name a few.  If history is our greatest teacher, then there exists today no greater lesson in the business of sport - the BUSINESS of sport - than that which can be gleaned from the histories of these organizations.  Each had a bitter adversary, not unlike a Saratoga and a Del Mar, or a Gulfstream and a Fair Grounds.  Yet like Saratoga, Del Mar, Gulfstream, and Fair Grounds, each was a stable, established, profitable entity that could have continued on for years.  So why is it that none of these organizations still exist?  They may no longer exist on paper, but their legacy lives on today beyond even their founder's wildest dreams.  I won't bore you with the numbers the NFL, NBA, NHL, and PGA Tour generate in total revenues.  Suffice to say, they are staggering, and all a direct result of the wisdom and forethought to compete not as adversaries, but rather as partners.

For those who think the idea of a Commissioner is pie-in-the-sky, I would suggest they spend five minutes acquainting themselves with a guy named Tony Robbins.  Tony Robbins became one of the most respected men of his generation, and a multi-millionaire, by preaching the gospel of common sense.  His entire philosophy for success is based on an almost mindlessly simplistic, yet utterly infallible axiom: find someone who's already done it and been successful, and copy him!

Given the historical precedent of competing venues like the NFL, NBA, PGA, and NHL; the fact that there exists today, and has existed for years, a step-by-step blueprint that each did little more than copy to achieve similar, phenomenal results, and that all racing has to do is copy; is it really too much to expect in our lifetimes for racing to do what other sports had the foresight to do 10, 20, even 30 years ago?  Because if it is, then the tide of conventional thought these days that views racing not with the admiration it once commanded as the Sport of Kings, but rather with the same contempt, inscrutability, and domain of ignorance with which it views NASCAR and the WWF, becomes a completely accurate and indefensible assessment.

Octave-the-Rave

 
  • »Permalink
  • Write comment
  • Send entry
  • Posted by:Octave
  • in:Handicapping

RYDER CUP versus BREEDERS' CUP!

The only thing I've done in my life longer than play horses is play golf.  I just watched the end of The Ryder Cup, the biennial competition between the best in Europe vs. the best in the USA.  For the third time in a row and fifth time in the last six competitions, Europe destroyed us.  During the telecast, I couldn't help but be struck by the similarities between The Ryder Cup and The Breeders' Cup, and as well, one glaring difference. 

This year marks the 23rd renewal of the Breeders' Cup.  The modern-day format for the Ryder Cup dates back only a couple of years earlier.  Throughout the 80's and for much of the 90's, both events were dominated by America.  From 1979 to the mid-90's, Europe won only two of eight Ryder Cups, with one tie. From 1984 to 2000, European horses won only four percent of all BC races in which they had an entry.  Since 2000, that figure has more than tripled, although America has managed to retain its dominance in the Classic.  Clearly, the pendulum has swung toward Europe in both sports.

Still, the thing that stands-out in my mind above all else is the stunningly different paths these two events have taken along the way in terms of their perspective on the world sporting stage.  When The Breeders' Cup began back in 1984, The Ryder Cup still was a blick on the sporting radar.  Thanks to the marketing genius of PGA of America President Jim Awtry, and PGA Tour Commissioners Deane Beman and Tim Finchem, today it is a global behemoth.  In host country Ireland, the daily limit of 45,000 tickets for the 5-day event sold-out in a staggering three hours, including the Wednesday practice session, and Thursday's opening ceremonies.  Commercial "air-time" fees reportedly were the highest in television history for a daytime sporting event, despite the fact that two of the three days of competition were televised on five-hour tape delay.  Title sponsor and corporate giants General Motors and Rolex already have signed-on for the next 10 years, as has broadcasting partner NBC-TV. Suffice to say, the future of the Ryder Cup is exceedingly bright.

Conversely, The Breeders' Cup has had no such dream journey.  This year it lost its network sponsor of 23 years NBC-TV, and has been relegated to cable status.  Tom Durkin, voice of the Breeders' Cup since its inception and the one person most associated with the event, also opted to sign a long-term contract with NBC, rather than continue his association with the event.  Gone is Tom Hammond, replaced by college football host (!) Chris Fowler.  Unlike the Ryder Cup's association with GM and Rolex, BC's title sponsors over the years have had names like Long John Silver, Visa, Citgo, and Dodge.  As of this writing, ESPN has yet to find a marquis anchor sponsor to team with Dodge for the '06 event, and hasn't even sold-out its full complement of 30-second commercials.  At the local level, my cousin called from Louisville the other day to tell me our covered, Mezzanine level box for six about three jumps from the wire cost a whopping $245, and that there still were "plenty" left!  Derby walk-around clubhouse tickets for Barbaro cost $240!  Most unsettling, unless ESPN has something of a metamorphosis between now and Nov. 4, and figures-out how to present the sport on television with even marginal effectiveness, it figures to be a huge decline in quality from what we have become accustomed in years past, and a surefire turn-off for the all-important first-time viewer.

As dreadful as it may sound, the analogy that best befits these days the sport of racing might be those first few awful seconds burned in our brain following the shuttle explosion. I remember watching it live ... seeing the main body of the vessel in tact and rocketing toward the moon ... with seemingly dozens of other smaller rockets shooting-off in all directions, zig-zagging and looping about and crossing each other in the sky in what at first appeared to be controlled chaos; followed by the looks on the faces of the spectators below, their eyes wide in wonderment, alternately looking-up at the sky, and at each other, with the same "what the heck is going on here" look.  Exactly the same look I had that day, and that I find myself wearing all too often these days with the controlled chaos that has become one of only two sports I truly love.

Thank God I'm a whole lot better at the other one!

Octave-the-Rave 

 
  • »Permalink
  • Write comment
  • Send entry
  • Posted by:Octave
  • in:Handicapping

(*) AND THE BEAT GOES ON ...

"I don't see any reason that he shouldn't have cut me back. I think he should have called me up. I think 22 years of your life given to a place is worth one phone call. I don't hold him at fault for anything other than lack of consideration to talk to somebody."

Trainer Rusty Arnold, DRF on-line Edition, 09/21/2006, speaking of NYRA Racing Secretary P. J. Campo

*************************************************************************

Tomorrow's Lead Story in the DRF is about Rusty Arnold's abrupt decision to pull all his horses out of New York, and relocate them to Kentucky.  His sole reason for the decision after 22 years can be found in the above-captioned quote.  Here on the The Big Blog pages, several of us have written searing critiques on the cold, disinterested, take-for-granted manner with which racing's management routinely treats horse players and principals alike. For those who may have thought it an aberration, unique only to their hometown racetrack, consider that the Racing Secretary for all of New York racing is as high-profile a position as there is in the game.  As a general rule, surely you would expect a person manning such an important position to possess exceptional people skills, and be thoroughly schooled in the fineries of public relations, would you not?  And most assuredly you would expect such a person in an organization whose contract is up for re-bid, and whose every action is under intense scrutiny these days, to be extremely conscious of putting forth the best possible public image for his employer, would you not?  Well, here was P. J. Campo's official, on-the-record, now-in-print reaction when told of Arnold's decision:

"If I called every single trainer that applied for stalls here, there wouldn't be enough time in the day," said Campo, who has been racing secretary here since July 2005.

My favorite term for racing's current crop of managers is "nitwit."  Mr. Campo, I pointedly suggest, makes it sound like a compliment.

Octave-the-Rave

(*) E-linked to NYRA.com on 09/21/2006

 
  • »Permalink
  • 3 Comments
  • Send entry
  • Posted by:Octave
  • in:Handicapping

HOW TO BE A LATE RACE HERO!

Like many who grace these pages, I am a track rat.  "Track rat" is a term that first appeared in the New England Journal of Medicine to describe one whose DNA at birth contains the rare PH3 chromosome: predisposed habitual horse handicapper. (It's true.  You can look it up!)  My dad was a card-carrying degenerate, so much so that the home I grew-up in remains today less than a stone's throw from the back fence of the historic Fair Grounds. 

Despite his "habit," my dad managed to run a full-time business, put five kids through college, stay married to the same sainted woman for life, and retire to a pasture of relative leisure.  Not so his only brother Bill, whom we grew-up calling Uncle "Red."  Uncle Red had more bad habits than the Twisted Sisters Society, although the ponies always topped his list.

At FG, Red was known far-and-wide as "Rip-Cord" Red for his uncanny ability to come-up with the last race winner, and "bail-out" for the day.  It really was astonishing how often he did it.  I was still a young man when Red got cancer 25 years ago this month, and my interest in racing back then had lots of competition.  Still, the last time I visited him in the hospital, we spent hours talking about the great old days of the FG when he and my dad would take my brothers and I on our weekly Saturday morning pilgrimage to the track kitchen, in pitch darkness and often freezing cold, to drink hot chocolate, hob-nob with the jocks and trainers, watch the sun rise majestically above the old grandstand, and clock the morning workouts.  At 10, it didn't get any better than that for me.  It was during our final visit that he revealed to me his "secret" for picking the last race winner.  Twenty-five years later and that secret has become such a habit, I don't think I could break it even if I wanted to. 

My uncle was a CPA ... a bean counter ... a numbers cruncher who worked for a large accounting firm.  As a young man, he was calculating speed figures long before most ever heard the term.  He also had lots of theories, many of which would make even today's modern theorists' jaws drop.  As a non-theorist, I dispatched most.  Still, one in particular stuck with me, and caused me to copy his unusual habit. 

After years of working in crowded rooms with other bean counters, Red came to realize that no matter a person's IQ, education-level, and intellect, most of us have measured-to-limited attention spans.  And that typically, our attention level start-outs at its most focused, then gradually wanes over time.  As our attention-level decreases, so too he theorized do our powers of concentration, analysis, and deduction.  It made perfect sense to me.  In fact, it described to a tee pretty much what I experienced every time I sat down to handicap a race card.  Invariably, I'd start out like a house afire, then gradually become less focused along the way. 

Well, if that also describes your typical experience, you already should know where this is going.  You already should know my uncle's "secret" to his late race heroics, because it really is quite brilliant in its simplicity. 

Have you guessed it yet?

My Uncle Red handicapped the Racing Form backwards!  The reason he had so many last race winners is because he always handicapped the last race first, and worked backwards!  And when you think about, the advantages over conventional handicapping are intriguing.  The better horses typically run in the later races, right?  Better horses run truer to form than cheaper ones, do they not?  Why would you waste your prime, peak levels of concentration, analysis, and deduction and do your best work on the cheaper, less predictable horses in the early races, when it's just as easy to start from the last race and work forward?  Besides, you know what "they" say, and what "they" say is as relevant in horse playing as it is in any other sport: "It ain't how you start that counts, it's how you finish!"

[A word of caution: Trying this the first time will seem as "natural" as walking across a water-bed in dark sunglasses and roller blades while carrying your second pitcher of margaritas! It takes some serious getting used to, but once you do, I trust you'll find it a unique and enjoyable diversion from the norm, if not a worthy addition to your handicapping arsenal.]

On the subject of memory and concentration, a final, few quick words for all over 40 about a product called DHEA.  Here are the few quick words: GO BUY IT.  TODAY! 

Thirty years ago, DHEA was an experimental drug used in studies on the 40-something siblings of Alzheimer patients.  In fact, its primary pharmacological application remains today cognitive enhancement, only it has become so popular it is now widely available over-the-counter at most groceries, pharmacies, and health food stores.  And it really works!  I gave-up one of the great loves of my life 12 years ago - high-level, tournament bridge - because I no longer could compete with the young masters of the game.  I mean, I could for a while, but as I went deeper into the tournament ... as the pressure mounted and the competition grew stronger ... it got harder and harder to maintain the intense focus and concentration that high-level bridge demands.  So I quit.  Cold turkey.  Had I known about DHEA 12 years ago, there's no telling what I might have accomplished in the game.  

As is, I can tell a profound difference in my memory, and my handicapping skills, every time I run-out, and don't take it for several days.  To me, it's a wonder drug, and one of the few "edges" we old veterans have when competing against the young masters of this game.  Clearly you should check with your local physician first, in case its ancillary "side effects" like increased energy, increased libido, improved circulation, fewer coughs and colds, improved recovery and healing power, sounder sleep, and stuff like that might not be for you!  Even if they aren't, they're worth putting-up with when you discover how much better your handicapping becomes!

Octave-the-Rave

 
  • »Permalink
  • 2 Comments
  • Send entry
  • Posted by:Octave
  • in:Handicapping

THE TURF COURSE MYSTERY ...

If you get a chance over the next few days, click on a live feed from Kentucky Downs and take a good look at their turf course.  I'm not exaggerating when I say the grass is so lush and tall, you can't see anyone's shoes in the Winner's Circle presentation.  And it's beautiful, to boot.  Mind you, they run ONLY turf races, which means they do not have the luxury of taking races "Off the Turf" for rain.  They either run, or cancel.  Here's what has me miffed.  This is Kentucky racing, not West Virginia.  Surely the Superintendents at CD and Keeneland are aware that they do this, if not Superintendents nationwide.  So why don't other Superintendents copy them?  Why is virtually every other turf course in the nation manicured to putting green height? 

Something doesn't add up here. 

A buddy of mine argued profusely that the grasses in Europe are different from ours, and that we couldn't duplicate their turf courses.  Him I've already collected from!  Another argued that management does it because there are more dirt horses stabled than turf horses; that turf races are written more for the fans than the owners; and that cancellations are a good thing because they actually cater to the owners.  Could that really be it?  I swear to you, I'm totally miffed!  Does anyone have a clue about this mystery?  Does anyone know a Superintendent he/she can call and ask?  Because short of a simple, common sense answer, I'm starting to think "America's Obsession with Manicured Turf Courses" just might make for hellacious reading in the next issue of Horse Player Magazine!

 
  • »Permalink
  • 3 Comments
  • Send entry
  • Posted by:Octave
  • in:Handicapping

A KINDER, GENTLER, MORE PROFESSIONAL ...

Rave?  Is that what you thought?  NOT!  Besides, I'm a krill in the ocean compared to this guy.

Since Andrew Beyer's DRF Del Mar perspective on "The Importance of Morning Workouts" as a key handicapping variable mercifully was retired, his weekly column has been missing in action.  At first, I thought he was on vacation, until I realized Del Mar WAS his vacation.  As an avid reader of DRF on-line since its inception, I cannot recall a longer period passing without a Beyer column.

Well, it suddenly reappeared today.  On a Friday!  I just finished reading it, and my jaw is on the desk!  It is astonishing.  No hyperbole; no exaggeration; astonishing!

For starters, it is superb, although that is NOT the astonishing part.  After all, Mr. Beyer is The Dean!  Because he is, I always have held him to standards that tower above the masses -- as I believe they should -- and as I also believe most racing fans do.  What's astonishing is that this column has been edited - edited, that is, by someone other than Mr. Beyer himself.  And not just edited for content, mind you, but clearly for legal compliance, as well!

The nuances are too vast even to list, nor are they germane. Anyone who writes and/or edits professionally and has read Mr. Beyer extensively immediately will recognize the differences.  JP will, for sure.  They are sledge-hammer in scope.  What's germane is how monumental a departure this is from the norm, not just for Mr. Beyer himself, but also for the DRF.  At the same time, it occurs to me that TVG, the subject of the piece, is a client of the DRF.  That alone might explain the remarkable restraint and professionalism of this piece, and the stunning absence of gratuitous sensationalism that has been the hallmark of every controversial subject broached, and every critical expose penned, by Beyer and others at the DRF for more than a year.

So said, if by next week they're back to calling Barbaro a druggie and Todd Pletcher a cheat, this will just be so much wasted ink.  Still, it has been weeks since such a piece has appeared in the DRF, when they seemingly were appearing almost daily.  I can't help but wonder if there isn't more to this than meets the eye?  Andrew Beyer subject to the editor's sword?  It's almost heresy, yet the proof is unmistakable and undeniable.  I can't help but wonder if this isn't a genuine reversal of form?  A serious come-to-Jesus, if you will.  And if it is, I'd love to know what prompted it, and what the impetus was for such a drastic upheaval in protocol. 

This I do know.  About a year ago, an article appeared in Horse Player Magazine criticizing Mr. Beyer for assigning a 120 fig to Bellamy Road for his stunning Woodward victory.  Mr. Beyer not only responded, but in a manner that clearly indicated his desire to have the response published in the magazine, which it was.  Well, if he reads the Magazine, why should he not occasionally visit the on-line version?  More than merely logical, it strikes me as highly likely.  While I suspect he could care less about DQ controversies and Horseplayer Paradoxes, I'm confident he monitors the sight for opinions on his speed figures, and suspect he reads everything on here bearing his name.  More than a few of us have bandied his name about, and occasionally with criticism.  While he may discount us, he cannot so readily discount our esteemed judges, a couple of whom have seen fit to agree with some of that criticism.

Then again, I could just be hallucinating. 

Maybe Gretchen & Roy Jackson sued their butts.  Maybe it was Michael Matz.  Maybe it was those folks who owned Ugottadowhatugottado.  Maybe some bad-ass New York trainer tarred Beyer with a jockey's whip!  Or maybe it's none of those things.  Maybe this column is just a mirage.  I hope not, because it is an exceptional piece of investigative journalism; a remarkably thorough and exacting portrayal of the short-comings @ TVG; and a spot-on accounting of the much-needed changes and practical improvements that subscribers have been requesting, in fact begging for, for years, without a shard of personal opinion nor gratuitous hype.

And here's the real kick-in-the-head, folks: now they'll happen!  I have no doubt the brain-trust at TVG is in meetings right now panicking over this piece, and already starting the ball rolling on every single change. 

They'll happen because Andy Beyer said they were needed.  Such is the power of The Dean.

Now, if only The Dean would direct that awesome power to where it's needed most.  If only he would pick-up the mantle of unification, and carry the torch for a Racing Commissioner.  At this point, I honestly wouldn't care if he nominated himself.  In fact, if push came to shove, I'd campaign my butt off for him.

And how's that for a come to Jesus!

Octave-the-Rave

PS: I recall someone on here wrote an expose on TVG, and I was extremely curious to compare it to the DRF piece, but I couldn't find it.  Help!!!

 
  • »Permalink
  • Write comment
  • Send entry
  • Posted by:Octave
  • in:Handicapping

ON JUDGE WHITEY, AIRFORBES1, AND OTHER TALES OF WOE!

In the past, I've written stuff in anger for therapy; posted it; re-read it; felt better; got it out of my system; deleted it; and moved on.  This is such a piece, but since a certain judge has expressed his discord with this practice, and has said as much in print, this I will not delete.  So be it.  Let the chips fall where they may.  Besides, I told you I was 2/5 to piss 'em all off before it was done!

I'm sure many on here will take Judge Whitey's query seriously, and will respond to it as penned. I think it's a crock, and instead will respond to what I believe it is.  You lost me, Shark, on the ND DQ.  If you wanted/needed the "entire footage" to make a final call, all you had to do was ask for it.  I Fed Ex'ed it to Jeremy.  I damn sure would have done the same for you.  Instead, you did the worst possible thing: you hedged your bet.  You copped out.  And to think you used to be my idol.  To think I once compared you in print to the legendary, tell-it-like-it-is Howard Cossell.  You're about as close to Howard Cosell as Airhead1 is to a real horse player, and since the both of you have me absolutely fuming, let's get on with it, shall we, starting with the mandatory response to your query, "Should the odds of a horse play any significance on a judge's call?"

Preposterous question!  Odds?  Who made odds the central focus of this debate?  Or any focus, for that matter?  And when the heck have a horse's odds ever had a bearing on anything?  At least you came closer to a relevant observation with your statement that, "I believe it is their (Stewards) job to view the race by what they see occur on the racetrack," and that's the hypothesis I'll address.  The answer to that is a resounding "NO, they do not," and I have precedent to support that claim that dates back before you and I were born.

Clearly, you are now on the official record of espousing the view that judges should and routinely do disregard all circumstances, and that they disqualify horses like Nicole's Dream for "ticky-tacky fouls" as routinely as they do 4-1 shots in a $5K claiming races.  Well, if you actually believe that, then clearly they should apply these same standards universally, should they not?  Here's a quick quiz for YOU.  Name every horse in the history of The Kentucky Derby - not every winner, just every horse -- who ever hit the board that was disqualified?  Preakness?  Belmont?  BC Classic?  Arc de Triomphe?  Travers?  Woodward?  Should I go on, or do you get the point?  The point is that judges DO NOT use the same universal, across-the-board criteria in every race of any kind, nor have they since the dawn of time.  And you know that as well as anyone.  You put yourself squarely on the other side of this issue last week, then didn't have the courage to admit the obvious, and no other way to save face but than with some smoke-screen hypothesis.  You said you didn't care.  I wish you had just left it there ...

As for AirForbes1, I also have read his posting supporting a bill that would continue the wanton slaughter of horses for profit.  To date, the reason I have had nothing to say on this matter is because there was nothing to say.  In my mind, Lady Horse Player has done a thorough and excellent job of documenting this issue from Day 1; of thoughtfully presenting its pros and cons; and of representing with grace and dignity the sentiments of the vast majority of racing fans everywhere, including mine.  However, even at her angriest, LadyBelle is far too gentile to refute with justice the searing ignorance replete throughout Mr. Forbes' disturbing diatribe, even if he is just a college kid traversing the minefield of higher education. 

For the record, when I went away to college, I used to carry a piece of paper in my wallet that my dad gave me before I left.  It read, "Remember, son, it's better to remain silent and be thought dumb, than to open your mouth and remove all doubt!"  What he meant was this: If a teacher asked a question to which you don't know the answer, don't make-up a bunch of crap.  Just say, "I don't know," or keep your mouth shut.  I suggest AF1 might want to pin this to his forehead.  Or better yet, scotch tape it over his big mouth.

Let me preface this by saying I am not privy to the economic realities of this issue, because I have not taken the time to study them in any depth.  Clearly, neither has AF1, since by his own admission he hasn't done an iota of research on his own.  (Besides, when the heck would he find the time between betting thoroughbreds, quarter horses, chariots, greyhounds, and the Mules at Fresno?  What'd they do, kid, shut down your local Jai Alai Fronton?  And when the heck do you find time to go to class, between gin rummy sessions?)   Still, for anyone to support such a bill at all, never mind with such conviction, for reasons that include "these horses might meet much more inhumane fates than slaughter" is just so mindless in scope as to render this piece utterly void of credibility.  More inhumane than murder?  ‘Scuse me: much more inhumane than murder?  What'd you have in mind, pal, attaching electrodes to their testicles in case they might actually know who killed Alydar?  Because short of that, what on earth were you thinking?

Not that it's the only thorn of mindlessness in this crown-jewel of insipidity.  Far from it.  However, it is the one above all others that makes the entire piece unworthy of consideration by anyone whose IQ exceeds the mean temperature.  That said, I do want to share with young Air an entirely different perspective, one that is based solely on fact, and that he should hope someday to aspire to, assuming he manages to avoid prison and/or the poor house first.

Over the past 20 years, I've had the privilege of knowing dozens in racing who have owned horses at one time or another.  To a man, all of them have faced the dilemma of ridding their portfolios of a previous asset that no longer had value.  None ever sent a horse to a slaughter house, nor -- I'm proud to say - are they the kind of men who even would consider such an atrocity, much less who need a stinking few hundred dollars that badly.  I don't have the words to describe such a heathen, nor do I ever want to meet, know, be around, associate with, or otherwise acknowledge the existence in the game of such low-life reprobates.  I know they exist.  Most have the good common sense to keep a low profile.  Until today, I never would have dreamed one existed who actually would ascribe to such debauchery his family name.

For the record, young man, if you had done an iota of research before banging away at your little keyboard with such alacrity, no doubt you'd know about private sales, public and private riding academies, sheriff's ranches, police academies, college agricultural departments, state-fostered equine institutes, military bases, federally-funded boarding houses and the literally dozens of other avenues available for the proper, responsible, thoughtful, caring, and humane disposition of horses other than wanton slaughter for pocket change.

The visual alone makes me want to puke.  How anyone would champion such depravity in print for any reasons, never mind ones as baseless as these, is beyond me.  Get your ass in class, pal, and stop embarrassing your Mom and Dad.

Octave-the-Rave

 
  • »Permalink
  • 5 Comments
  • Send entry
  • Posted by:Octave
  • in:Handicapping

A FINAL OBSERVATION ON THE ND DQ ...

I should say MY final observation.  Others still may be coming, including at least one differing opinion I already know about from a key player on the HP team.  I want him to know this is not a sucker-punch.  Most of it already was written before he asked for the video.  I did add a paragraph to address a point he raised with which I don't agree. It'll be interesting to hear his counter-logic; assuming, of course, he doesn't simply wash his hands of this whole mess, and at this point I wouldn't blame him a bit.  In either case, this is it for me.  I'm exhausted, and too disheartened to argue. 

I know it's fashionable to say, but I really do love this game.  It's been a big part of my life since I was a boy.  My dad was in it.  My uncle.  Two brothers.  Heck, my Mom was the best handicapper in the whole family.  Queen of the Holy Ghost, the original Pick 3!  Thirty plus years later and I still can't watch Secretariat's Belmont video without welling-up like a school girl.  And it isn't the gambling.  I don't really gamble on anything but horses.  Even when in Vegas, I still only bet the horses.  It's the game I love, and the game with which I find myself disheartened more these days than ever

Ghost Zapper, a monster, cut short.  Afleet Alex, a freak, gone.  St. Liam dead, while walking home!   Fog dying ... of cancer!  Barbaro, a generational miracle, clinging to life.  Bernardini versus Barbaro stolen from us, and I haven't the words to express what that would have meant not just for racing, but for the whole sporting world.  Drug scandals.  Kickback scandals.  The breakdown crisis.  Stallions being pilfered left and right.  A dangerously irresponsible media at the highest levels.  No more Keeneland as we knew and loved it.  Circus-carnival cow pastures with bigger purses than NY, KY, and FL. The Breeders' Cup without Fallon.  The Breeders' Cup without Bailey.  The Breeders' Cup without Durkin.  Without Durkin, for God's sake!

And now Electrocutionist, arguably the best older horse in the world and one of the favorites to win the BC Classic, dead!  Out of the blue.  Of a heart attack, no less.  What the heck is going on here?  This is madness.  Cats-sleeping-with-dogs apocalyptic stuff.  When will it all end?  And what the heck must racing do to catch a half-way decent break?

Through all the madness, what's been bothering me most is that the game I love does not seem any more respectable, any more responsible, nor any more self-policing today than it was when I was a kid, when race-fixing not only was common place, but common knowledge.  I mean, I know it is.  It just doesn't FEEL that way after watching this DQ footage. You can call it incompetence if you like.  I won't argue.  Personally, after watching it over and over, I'm convinced more than ever that what happened the other night at MTR was flat-out criminal, and not in the figurative sense.

In our conversations, Mrs. Williams kept saying, "We would never do anything to jeopardize our license."  I kept asking, "To whom?"  Mountaineer Park is under the jurisdiction of the West Virginia Racing Board.  It also happens to be the single biggest tax revenue-producing entity for the entire state of West Virginia.  Is there anyone so naïve as to think a Governor-appointed Board Chairman would call attention to something like this, much less conduct a legitimate investigation that might ultimately affect the flow of income from the state's biggest cash cow?  Maybe in NY or Kentucky.  In West Virginia?  C'mon, my guess is within five minutes of such an announcement there would be photos all over the internet of the esteemed Chairman out in the casino parking lot fondling a 15-year-old! 

I don't think anyone ever will know what really happened that night; who benefited; nor how. Only MTR has the final betting pool numbers, and Mrs. Williams saw fit NOT to share those with me. Something happened.  Someone benefited.  The head-on speaks for itself.  Notwithstanding the lack of uniform regulations regarding "sufficient cause," a steward's minimum mandates for disqualifying a horse are as follows:

Clear, irrefutable evidence that 1) The subject horse caused and/or was solely responsible for causing interference to another or others; and 2) The interference was of such a magnitude as to place in doubt the final outcome of the race. 

That is NOT my "bolding" above.  That's right out of the book, and both must be satisfied.  Both!  Otherwise, it's no different from pro football: without incontrovertible evidence to the contrary, the play MUST stand.

It's hard to believe that anyone with a solid background in the game who viewed this video would conclude that either of those criteria was satisfied as it relates to Nicole's Dream, much less both.  For three professional placing judges, in the same room, at the same time, to think both were satisfied defies the pale of reason.  One is hard enough to fathom.  All three?  I'd rather you debate with me the existence of the Tooth Ferry than a "coincidence of incompetence" on this grand a scale.  I used to be a stock broker.  I know what a crook looks like.  At least I've never actually seen the Tooth Ferry.

While I don't necessarily agree with my buddy The Ghost that it was the worst I've ever seen, I do take major umbrage with anyone who would argue that the extenuating circumstances surrounding ND should have had no influence on the judges.  Forget the fact that she was 1/5 and that there was a minus show pool.  This was a world-class mare who came in especially for the race; laid over the field on paper; proceeded to destroy it with laughing ease; and set the course record in the process.  To suggest that placing judges use universal standards ... to argue that these extenuating circumstances should not have been considered ... and that ND should have been treated like any 4-1 shot in a $5K claiming race - while admirable - simply doesn't wash with reality.  It is no different from arguing that placing judges use the same standards in Graded Stakes as they do in $46K allowance races, when anyone who's been in the game longer than a frog's life knows that placing judges are extremely reticent about altering the outcome of graded stakes, and rarely if ever do.  It is an argument that simply does not hold up under scrutiny.

Perhaps the most perplexing part of all was the total absence of press coverage.  Surely it was the buzz around the offices at the DRF after it happened, as it was @ Brisnet, and among racing fans, yet they chose to ignore it completely.  What's so strange is that just two weeks ago, a 2/5 world-class California sprinter got beat by a former claimer in a G2 race that really was a glorified NC allowance, and all we read about for days was the "hit with the whip" controversy.  This was 10 times worse, and they didn't make a single inquiry into it, nor write a bloody word. How do you explain that, other than a pervasive mindset on the order of, "Hey, it's West Virginia!  What do you expect? And besides, who cares!"

Once again, I find myself harkening back to the familiar refrain of how desperately our sport needs a Commissioner.  I have no doubt that if we had one, this incident would have been investigated within hours of occurrence, and that by now we'd have some answers.  At the very least, I'd expect that answer would be gross incompetence.  The bridge jumper still would be screwed, but his misfortune is of little consequence.  Whoever benefited still would have his bounty, and that would be unfortunate.  But at least the owners of Nicole's Dream would have the purse money that rightfully is theirs, and their mare today would own the course record, as rightfully she should, and those things should matter.  What matters most is that it would serve to restore, foster, and strengthen integrity in the game.  In my opinion, the continuing erosion of the game's integrity stands today as racing's most pressing problem, and a cancer that if left unchecked, ultimately could destroy it.  If nothing else comes of this whole frustrating exercise than convincing one more person of the need for a Racing Commissioner, then it will have been time well spent.  (And after reading the Sep/Oct issue of HP Magazine cover-to-cover, I'd vote for Randy Moss in a heartbeat!)

I also believe racing eventually will move in that direction, albeit kicking and screaming like that slowly-dying sport of tennis is doing now, thanks to the foresight and leadership of folks like John McEnroe, Pete Sampras, and others. Until racing finds its McEnroes and Samprases ... its real leaders ... folks in the game with a face, and a voice, and a platform for change who are willing to stand-up and make a difference, rather than using that platform to foster self-serving agendas that sell books and newspapers, this sort of abomination surely will continue as a matter of course.  With no one looking over racing's shoulder, your common sense tells you it's inevitable.

The big question in my mind is this: Will there still be enough of us left standing by the time racing finally does come to its collective senses and joins the 21st century, or will it be too late by then to save the game we love?

If I had to make a morning-line based on the way I feel right now, I'd call it even-money, at best.

Octave-the-De-raved

 
  • »Permalink
  • 4 Comments
  • Send entry
  • Posted by:Octave
  • in:Handicapping

WHAT A FIASCO!!!!

The things we do for the game we love!  (BTW, if anyone has any password-protected, read-only, encoded, or write-protected DVD home movies of their kids that they can't d'load, save to their harddrive, and e-mail to granny in Sheboygan, give me a call!  I'll be happy to share with you the 20 hours of sh ... stuff NOT to do, along with the simple, $35 program that does it in a snap!)

As of this posting, the nine folks who requested the Nicole's Dream head-on and DQ footage via e-mail last week all have received the files, including Rog the Ghost, Equino/Marshall, Brian @ Brisnet, The Old Hozer, The Fork Lady (!) and, of course, Jeremy.  I also have the full 10-minute original DVD in today's Fed Ex to JP.  I recall The Charm and LadyBelle also expressed interest, and I'd like to know what they think, as well, since I believe their opinions to be solid and unbiased.  If they -- and anyone else w/an interest -- would send me a blank e-mail to the below-listed address, I'll hit the "reply" key and attach the files, BUT ONLY IF YOU HAVE HIGH-SPEED ACCESS!  Even with hi-speed, each of these files is a 4-5 minute download, and there are five total files.  Rather, five files that make-up only about 25% of what's on the original!  (The original really is astonishing!)

I know this has dragged-out so long that for many, the story is old news.  Still, it doesn't alter the fact that outside the state of WV, we here on the Big Blog pages are the only folks in the world of racing with actual, head on footage of one of the most controversial DQs in recent history, and what a lot of folks still think was a great deal more than that.

Octave-the-Rave

e-mail: [email protected]

 
  • »Permalink
  • 4 Comments
  • Send entry
  • Posted by:Octave
  • in:Handicapping

STUNNING FOOTAGE OF NICOLE'S DREAM DQ ... ALMOST!

I just finished watching the Nicole's Dream DVD that Mrs. Williams sent, and I'm hyperventilating!  Before I address it, here is an e-mail I sent to Mrs. Williams only minutes ago:

Dear Mrs. Williams:   Just a brief note to thank you for the DVD.  It only arrived late last evening.  Given the long delay, I had my doubts I'd ever see it.  When it arrived, I fully expected to find a few seconds of video, and little more.  Suffice to say, I'm blown away by the effort.  Whoever put this "documentary" together must have taken hours in the control room.  It is a remarkable piece of work, and way, way beyond the "call of duty!" Once again, my sincere thanks to you and your staff for the yeoman effort that went into putting this DVD together.  
Very truly yours,
Octave J. "Bud" **********

The only thing NOT on this DVD is an interview with the Stewards!  For starters, it is three separate DVDs in one.  The first is 3 minutes and change, includes the full-view, head-on, isolated head-on, and the DQ footage.  It also includes Track Announcer Pete Barry's call of the race, heard here for the first time, since the BRISbet replay currently in archive is "silent."  He actually says, "... and they turn for home with the track record staring her in the face,"  and ends the call with "... another stunning exhibition by Nicole's Dream!"  But for the DQ, this race, and particularly this race call, would have been one of those rare keepsakes-for-life for the owners of Nicole's Dream.  DVD #2 is one minute and 19 seconds long, and is the pure head-on footage of the race, in its entirety, from break to gallop-out.  DVD# 3 is 4 minutes and 24 seconds, and is a compilation of DVD's 1 & 2, along with the slow-motion video of the DQ footage, including step-by-step, backwards slow-motion video from the top of the far turn, all the way back to the gate!

Is this a piece of work, or wot!

It also is the WORST DISQUALIFICATION I have ever seen in my 40+ years of racing.  Notwithstanding my nuclear-level penchant for hyperbole and overstatement, even I don't have the vocabulary to express to you just how bad it is.  I expected, at the very least, that it would be questionable.  In fact, it isn't even close to that.  It's a complete joke; a genuine travesty for the connections of Nicole's Dream; and a monumental embarrassment for Chief Steward James O'Brien and his staff at Mountaineer Park.  That Mrs. Williams would take the care and effort to document this travesty in such minutia is as inexplicable as it is mind-boggling.

Suffice to say, the video is way too large to post in its entirety here on The Big Blog pages.  For now, we're working on cutting pieces from it and burning a whole new DVD for mass posting.  You definitely will want to hold-up on any comments until you view the footage yourself, since my opinion clearly is biased.

‘Til later, with apologies, yet again.

Octave-the-Rave

 
  • »Permalink
  • 2 Comments
  • Send entry
  • Posted by:Octave
  • in:Handicapping

WHILE WE WAIT ... AND WAIT ... AND WAIT ...

This latest, and LAST (I promise!) Nicole's Dream update until the video arrives, will make no sense unless you read ABSOLUTPROCESSION's excellent comment attached to my previous update ("Still Nothing Yet ...), and my response to his keen observation.

As promised, I attempted to reach Brian yesterday, but he was off for the holiday.  Instead, I sent him a brief e-mail inquiring about the sudden appearance of these heads-on, and their origin.  His reply, while less informative than I had hoped, also was more detailed than I expected, and pretty much sums-up the majority view on this incident.  With his permission, it follows below:

In a message dated 9/5/2006 10:05:30 A.M. Eastern Standard Time, [email protected] writes:

Bud:

I don't know why BrisBET was suddenly supplied with these head-on videos when they never got them before the Nicole's Dream DQ, nor can I really say what was going on at Mountaineer, as perhaps the stewards did feel there was a legitimate reason to disqualify the horse.  I do know there was a huge show wager on her by a bridge jumper that would have left a negative show pool had she hit the board.  I did happen to be watching when this race ran and was absolutely shocked when she was disqualified, strangely enough, to fourth when she clearly dominated that field.

Perhaps the stewards really did feel that she needed to come down but they have never been that picky before and they picked a really suspicious time to become that picky with their disqualifications.  Whether there was intent there or not, we both know that it has cast a cloud of suspicion on Mountaineer.  Perhaps there was no intent but given the picky reason for the d.q., what was at stake, when it occurred, and the lack of a video head on replay, it definitely casts shadows of doubt on the whole operation.

Take care.

Brian Turner
Brisnet.com

Octave-the-Rave

 
  • »Permalink
  • Write comment
  • Send entry
  • Posted by:Octave
  • in:Handicapping

ON THIRD THOUGHT ...

Happy Labor Day, all.  Cute posting by Lady Handicapper. On third thought, LadyBelle, you could've gone to the racing office and said, "Hi, I flew in from Florida to pick-up a copy of the ND head-on!!"  I bet that would've sent some folks scrambling for cover!  Call me naive, but I can't believe a Director of Racing would lie on the record in her own e-mail account.  I have to believe the replay is bogged-down in the mail somewhere.  If it exists, I will get it, of that you can be certain.  And if she did lie ... if it turns out the replay was destroyed or never existed in the first place ... well ... how's this sound, JP: "And the Eclipse Award for Investigative Reporting goes to Horse Player Magazine!"

Geroctave-the-Raveiera

PS:  For those following the story, DO read the comments attached to the previous posting.  STRANGE!!!

 
  • »Permalink
  • Write comment
  • Send entry
  • Posted by:Octave
  • in:Handicapping

STILL NOTHING YET ...

I thought I better do a quick post for the weekend.  The mail has come and gone, and nothing from Mrs. Williams.  Hopefully, tomorrow (Saturday).  In the meantime, if you think it hasn't been a bad few months for bridge jumpers, check out the chart of the 2nd race on August 30th at Timonium!!!  (This DQ was completely legit, but some guy still took a $25K place hit!  I wonder if it was the same guy who got hosed on the ND DQ?  If so, he really might be off the bridge!)

Finally, and in honor of opening weekend of college football, comes this blast from the past (photo insert) -- 1960, to be exact.  Bottom row is me and two of my brothers.  Notice the programs in the pockets of our dapper Jacques C. Penney blazers!  Yikes!  My dad is upper left.  Center, top-row is the FG racing secretary.  The other two are future NFL Hall of Famer Johnny Robinson and Heisman Trophy winner Billy Cannon, stalwarts on LSU's 1959 National Championship team.

Octave-the-Rave

 
  • »Permalink
  • 1 Comments
  • Send entry
  • Posted by:Octave
  • in:Handicapping
About me
Blog-List
21Publish - Cooperative Publishing