OCTAVE-the-RAVE

Much has been written on here of late about the on-going fued between on-line wagering sites and the host tracks that provide the signal, and almost all of it has been misinformed, and some of it has been downright dumb.

In light of the fact that the outcome of these power struggles very well could hold in the balance the future viability of the entire sport, it is an issue ripe for debate, and made for these pages.  It is the LAST ISSUE in the game anyone who gives a rat's ass about his credibility should be blogging about who doesn't even know the most basic, fundamental elements of an extremely complex issue.

Instead, here's an idea: do some research!  Do some damn homework!  Find out exactly what percentage of every dollar you bet with an on-line provider they keep for doing basically nothing, and what percentage they pay to the host track that provides the product, puts on the live show, pays the tellers, pays the parking lot folks, and on and on and on.  (Here's a hint: HTF do you think some of these shops can afford to pay TEN PERCENT REBATES at the end of the year?)  Find out how this extraordinary disparity in percentages befell the signal providers; the turmoil it has created for the industry; and what its continuance could mean to the future viability of our game. 

Then write an informed blog.  I even have your title: "The Nitwit Brigade versus The Greedy Scumbags." 

Do only that and at the very least, these memoranda about which you've been opining -- and in some cases even reponding to -- I promise will read in a whole new light.

Octave-the-Rave

Tomorrow's cover photo in the DRF is about to change.  The new one will be one of the most remarkable in horse racing history.  Here's the actual chart from the race:

"LEAR'S PRINCESS, never far back, made a steady run five wide leaving the turn, engaged front-running MS SABBATICAL at the furlong grounds, brushed with that one about the sixteenth pole. At that point, the rider misjudged the finish line, rose prematurely, then, when the rider of MS. SABBATICAL also misjudged the wire and rose in the saddle, earned the nod on the wire while galloping out. MS. SABBATICAL gained slight edge from the three path, battled with PURE SILK, shook off that one in the upper stretch, was engaged by the winner in the upper stretch, brushed with LEAR'S PRINCESS at the sixteenth pole. Soon afterwards, the rider misjudged the wire rising prematurely in the iron and lost the photo when galloping out to the proper finish line."

The "winner," Elvis Trujillo, who misjudged the wire first, was riding for the first time all year at Keeneland.  The "loser," Kent Desomeaux, was in his 39th mount of the meet.  Because they finished a nose apart, the finish-line camera caught their glorious faux pas in living color, and snapped a photo that no doubt will become one of the most infamous in horse racing history!

Race Replay:  04/26/2007   Keeneland Race Course   Race 3

You won't believe it!

Rave

Note:  JP, if you agree, please print this blog and drop it in Steve Sexton's in-box upon your arrival at Churchill Downs.  Thanks.

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"Common sense," the Judges lauded this week.  If there's a commoditidy that should be at or near the top of our sport's endangered species list, common sense would get my vote.  Well, here's an idea that's so common sensical, the game would be hard-pressed to invent a reason for not adopting it.

There's no question the City of Louisville, as perennial host to our sport's greatest spectacle, is bitterly disappointed with (what now appears) the certain exclusion from this year's event of Chelokee and Michael Matz.  With all the festivities planned to celebrate the extraordinary legacy carved into the game, and into our hearts, by the brilliant but star-crossed Barbaro, having his trainer return the very next year with another legitimate potential champion is the stuff of Hollywood script writers.

The optimum words in the previous sentence are "potential champion." 

Anyone who knows Mr. Matz knows he would NEVER bring to the Derby a horse he wasn't totally convinced had a legitimate chance of winning.  The same cannot be said for many of this year's entries.  And while all have earned the right to be here via the Triple Crown's current graded earning's barometer, there are several trainers who know their horses have absolutely no chance of winning, and whose owners would be thrilled to death merely with a Top 10 finish.

And, yet again, the sport of racing finds itself on the eating-end of a s**t-stick of its own creation; and we, the fans, are deprived of seeing our best 3YOs lined-up in our sport's most prestigious event.

They want to be there?  Fine, so be it.  Here's one astoundingly common sense way to make sure they do not compromise the event anymore than they already have:

ELIMINATE THE RIDICULOUS LOTTERY FOR POST POSITION DRAWS, AND MAKE IT IN THE SAME, IDENTIAL ORDER AS THESE GRADED EARNINGS!

Then follow the same protocol throughout the Triple Crown Series.  How common sense is THIS?  How wonderful would it be every year to see the Top 5 earners - in this year's case Street Sense, Scat Daddy, Circular Quay, Curlin, and No Biz - in the 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12 posts, eyeball to eyeball, with no pre-race excuses?  And how fitting would it be for Teuflesberg to be buried in the 1-hole; Imawildrat in the 2; and Sedgefield in the 20?

Folks, I can just about guarantee you that while no "drug" will be created in our lifetimes to completely counter the brain damage that accompanies Derby Fever, this little common sense "pill" absolutely will put a knot on its ass.

Octave-the-Rave

I just read Am Cap's blog and it's GREAT, even though the guy is The Master of CYA, isn't he? "The only way he can lose is traffic!!!"  Yo Mac, you forgot one on your hysterical over/under Derby list: the number of trainers who'll use the "traffic excuse" after the race. 

What would you make the number: 15!!

Here's what knocked me out about his blog.  One of the things my Dad taught me decades ago when handicapping the Derby, or the Preakness, or really any big race was to envision in my mind as part of my handicapping and analysis how the race was going to be run.  I'm sure you do the same thing.  In fact, I know you do.  We all did it for the Blue Grass Stakes.  We not only put Teuflesberg all alone on the lead, we had him crawling on the lead.  How many folks do you think would have tapped-out on T'Berg @ 10-1 when he hung-up 1:16.4 for 6F?  We looked like Karnac, and despite his green-pea sized heart, still came within a head of ringing the bell.

Last year, the Derby was a piece of cake to envision with Keyed Entry, Sinister Minister, and Sharp Humor the clear early speed, and with NO CHANCE whatsoever to win.  Ditto the year before with Spanish Chestnut, Going Wild, and Bellamy Road, although at least BR had a shot.  Right now, if you gave me six picks to name the leader going into the first turn, I wouldn't take the bet! 

Would you?

Granted, this isn't something you'll even begin thinking about until the field has been set, and won't get serious about until after post positions have been drawn, but as of this moment, I honestly have no clue where most of the 15 will be positioned going into that all-important first turn that we already know for sure are in!  (I wonder if JP does?)

Anyway, I'm reaching-out here.  If anyone reads anything ... hears any little birdies ... has some inside scoop ... or even has a strong opinion (have you heard about the Pletcher "relay theory?"  1st - 4th - 8th - 12th - 16th?) ... please step up to the mic, no matter how radical it is.  Sometimes ... in fact, pretty often ... you can't figure-out what is going to happen until you've convinced yourself all the things that aren't.

Thanks.

Rave

The other night a good friend who's only been playing the horses for a few years was preparing for a tournament at Keeneland, and he called to ask if there was anyone in particular I liked.  I told him I loved two horses who would be too short to use in the tournament, but that I was going to bet on a horse I thought had a giant shot, and would be perfect for the tournament.  His name was Lemon Custard.  Then I proceeded to tell him all the reasons why I thought the horse was sitting on a huge race.

The next day after Lemon Custard won and paid $45, I kept waiting for the phone to ring.  When it didn't, I called him.  Voice mail!  I knew right away he didn't use the horse.  That night he told me why: "Because the horse's last three Beyer figs on Polytrack weren't good enough to win!"

I'll see him tonight.  He's bringing live crabs from Ocala and I'm doing the boiling.  After the first batch goes in, I'm going to drag his ass into this office, sit him down, and make him read the full text of the following article.  What I have excerpted below should suffice for purposes of this blog, particularly the underlined portion:

"The process used to create Beyer's speed figures back in the early 70's was a painstaking and laborious task.  It involved creating "par times" for races run at certain levels, and at different tracks, based on the final times of those races.  It took Beyer and his staff many thousands of hours to log into computers these historical times over many different race tracks in order to arrive at the formula used to compute the extremely popular Beyer Speed Figures."

Fortunately my buddy is an extremely bright guy.  I feel certain he'll figure-out on his own without me having to tell him that the Beyer figures on which he currently is relying for his Polytrack handicapping may as well have been pulled from Mr. Beyer's ass, for all the validity they have.

For the rest of you doubting Thomases, you need simply ask the most ardent Beyer Fig guys and to a man each will admit they discovered YEARS ago that his dirt numbers were far more reliable than his turf numbers.  Well, unless you believe that Mr. Beyer spent an additional "countless thousands of hours" creating separate par times for turf racing, then clearly his turf numbers are more arbitrary than scientific, which perfectly explains their relative unreliability.

More to the point, it's been 35 years since Mr. Beyer developed his Speed Figures.  It will be another 5-7 years before the data even exists for him to create the same accurate "par figures" for the nation's new wave of synthetic racing surfaces that form the basis of his BSFs.  Even then, the idea that a man of his age would have the same dedication, enthusiasm, and energy level that he had 35 years ago to tackle this entire process all over again - never mind the willingness to invest the money - seems highly unlikely to me.

Whether he does or not remains to be seen.  In the meantime and for at least the next few years, ANY polyturf speed figures you see, not just his -- because of the relative newness of the surface, and the very basis on which speed figures have been calculated for decades -- MUST be more arbitrary than scientific, and therefore of little or no significance in the handicapping process.

Octave-the-Rave

PS: Did anyone else "go horizontal" in the last P3 at Keeneland today with the 1/5 mortal lock Safari Queen in the feature, caught the $67.00 winner in the 7th, and is sitting on a nice payout in the last? 

If you don't plan to buy tomorrow's DRF, by all means go to DRF.com, scroll down, and click on the link "Tomorrow's Cover."  There you'll see a photo of Rags to Riches and Circular Quay during their most recent work.  Now, CQ is a small colt, but he's no midget.  Next to her, he looks like a chihuahua!  Plus, check-out how CQ has his ears pinned-back and how he and Angel are eye-balling the filly, while she looks like she cruising the Boardwalk!  Poor Octave.  She's gonna run second again!

Rave

Poland's most noted horse expert Jerome Polonski, aka Judge JP, aka Karnac the Maleficient, has been assuring everyone FOR WEEKS that his under-the-radar Derby steed - and MINE --CHELOKEE was a cinch to make the final line-up.  "No problem."  "Piece of cake."  "Done deal."  "In the Clubhouse and Awaiting the Kentucky Derby."

Yo, wildandcrazyguy, it's getting a little stormy in May ova heah.  My friggen' slew's in a tizzy.  Never mind I reported for duty last Saturday and made a large futures' wager on Cheloski with ... hellooooooooo ... no exchangers!

What in the Sam P. sayeth your all-knowing, made-in-Poland, cobalt blue Acrylic Ball this week?  Am I sedgefried?

Octavski-the-Ravski

For the 37th consecutive summer, hope will spring eternal at Calder Racecourse where the 2-year-old is king.  As usual, 2-year-old racing will be featured prominently throughout the meet, highlighted by the Florida Stallion Stakes program, which this year will be the richest ever.

  Mike Welch - Daily Racing Form - April 23, 2007

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Recently, The Race Book posted a blog on here that only barely scratched the surface of a development in our game that I believe has been the single most destructive in my lifetime, if not the most destructive in its history: the over racing/over exposure of our two-year-old babies.

It made me recall a blog I posted almost a year ago listing the Top 10 things I'd do as Commissioner of Racing.  Neat the top of that list was "limiting the number of races a two-year-old could run each year."  It wasn't original.  I stole the idea from none other than Jerry Bailey, who has been advocating it for years.

In fact, for years I have believed that it is this development in our sport, and not drugs, that lies at the heart of the "weakening of the breed" debate; is the primary cause for the early retirement - forced or otherwise - of so many of our 3YO Classic Champions; is 100 percent responsible for the truly alarming decline in recent years of our N.A. Handicap Division; and, most ironic of all, has been the single biggest catalyst for the explosion in popularity of synthetic racing surfaces.

Comes now the announcement by Calder, self-styled "King of the 2YOs," of its richest season ever just weeks on the heels of an announcement by the Breeders' Cup Committee of yet another million dollar race for two-year-olds, and the clear picture it paints for all who love the game is a business motivated by greed, managed by nitwits, and utterly hell bent on self-destruction.

Octave-the-Rave

Horse players who routinely bet the bulk of their bankrolls each wagering session on tris and supers are known in the gaming trade as vertical players.  The term was coined to differentiate them from their casino clones who routinely play Vegas' highest house-advantage games, and are referred to there simply as suckers.

Those who routinely bet the bulk of their bankrolls each wagering session instead on W/P, Exactas, P3s, and P4s are known as horizontal players.  The term was developed to differentiate them from their casino peers who play only the house's smallest take-out games, and are referred to as SMFs.

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If you're serious about trying to eek-out a profit at your avocation - as opposed to someone who just loves the game and loves the action - and you don't know what makes the above statements immutable, you really should go back to Square 1, start from scratch, and unravel the mysteries of what actually happens to those illusive sponduits you hand-over each day to your favorite teller vis-à-vis the "type of receipt" she hands you. 

For those who understand the critical role take-out plays on year-end ROI, my guess is you already are a horizontal player; will know most of this by rote; and likely can add stuff of your own to it.  What you may not know is how much more attractive horizontal play has become since the High Priests of Value took to their pulpits and began preaching the "Evils of Underlay Betting" gospel to the collective masses.

You'll recall in Part 2 of this series I opined that, "the debate on ‘value' begins and ends with your strong opinion horses."  What galls me about this "Value Determination" system is that it is the most pompous and elitist gospel ever preached.  You realize, of course, that in order for this system to have any practical merit, the person using it MUST be smarter than the playing public! Think about it.  What the heck are "underlays" and "overlays" anyway but one man's belief that his opinion is smarter than the collective sampling of opinions of the entire wagering public?

Years ago, that was an easy sell.  No longer.  In fact, ask me as a 40-year veteran of the sport to name the single biggest change in the game over that entire period and I'll tell you without hesitation it's the level of knowledge and sophistication of my pari-mutuel competitors.  The information age has changed everything, what with an avalanche of real-time data at our fingertips, and blinding-fast ADP betting programs pounding every pool.  Whereas getting a horse past the public years ago was a walk in the park, today it is a practical impossibility.  And whereas finding and taking fullest advantage of races that feature "false favorites" remains today one of the game's best angles, if not the best, the incident of badly overbet horses gets smaller and smaller with each passing year.

Management has gotten stupider; not the public.  And since it's the public that all-too-often makes big favorites out of our strong opinions; and it's our strong opinions that we count on to carry the day; how do we still manage to stick to our guns without taking the worst of it?

One way is to go horizontal.

From a purely mathematical standpoint, DDs, P3s, and P4s are BY FAR our game's best wagers.  What they are, in effect, are 2-horse, 3-horse, and 4-horse win parlays, yet unlike the actual parlays themselves that are subject to 2, 3, and 4 win-pool take-outs, each of these wagers is subject to a single take-out.  And while the take-out on P3s and P4s has risen dramatically in recent years to the point where they now rival trifectas, they still dwarf the combined win-pool take-outs of the respective parlays, which is one reason they typically pay a lot more than the pure parlay.  There's another reason, and within that reason lies the real "value" of these wagers, and the key to taking best advantage of our strong opinions.

Why do most people gamble?  For instant gratification and big payoffs, right?  Where do you find both in our game?  In tris and supers.  Where do you find neither?  In P3s and P4s where payouts are far less often obscene, and where the player has to wait 3-4 races to cash a bet.  I know it sounds overly simplistic, but trust me, this is a huge reason, if not the main reason, why so many more players in general, and so many big bettors in particular, choose tris and supers as their wager of choice, and all but eschew these dragged-out, horizontal wagers.  And because they do, it creates for the rest of us a dynamic that exists nowhere else in the game.

What started this dissertation in the first place was a face-smack from one of our fellow bloggers - a disciple of the "Enlightened Ones," no less - about how playing short-price horses is a one-way ticket to the poor house.  Because our competition in the mutual pools today is so much more informed than in years past, more often than not they are going to find the horse in exactly the right spot, at precisely the right time, to the exclusion of all others in the race, that formulates many of our strong opinion horses.  That's the reality today, and it isn't going to change.  However, do you know when they'll find him?  During the 25-minute-or-so timeframe it takes to tear-up their trifecta tickets from the previous race, and to single our strong opinion horse on top in their next handful of trifecta tickets!

Rarely will they find him the race before.  They won't even know he's running two races earlier.  And three races before that, they'll be lucky to know what day of the week it is.  Here's the point.  Even though you might know your strong opinion horse's 5-1 ML is bogus, and that he's a cinch to get hammered down to 9/5 by post time, on a 3-races-out horizontal P4, you will get the equivalent of his full 5-1 ML value in that pool, and you'll get it virtually every time.  You'll even get the bulk of it on a 2-races-out horizontal P3.  And even though most tracks now publish probable DD payouts, you'll be astonished how often they get completely ignored even then.

And this is just one facet of these horizontal wagers.  If you learn to exploit them, and do it well, you'll be astonished by the real "value" you can create on your own - without having to rely on the wagering masses to create it for you - and you even can do it at the most extreme end of the chalk spectrum that would make the Enlightened Ones puke.  At meets like Keeneland, Saratoga, Del Mar and others that feature exceptional racing, you're going to find horses like Sierra Heat, Magical Ride, Asi Siempre, Cosmonaut, Lady in Venice, etc. in spots where they literally have to fall down to get beat.  The other thing you'll find at these exceptional meets that you will not find at the Calders, Gulfstreams, Aqueducts, and Oaklawns where these virtual locks occasionally might pop-up is LARGE fields in the races that make-up the DDs, P3s, and P4 in which they are included.  

Even if you have no strong opinion horses in any of the races within these four separate betting opportunities, most of you are good enough to narrow the field and find the likely winner within the tolerances of your bankrolls; and because of these large fields, the value typically is outstanding.  What's really exciting is when you do find a strong opinion horse - another cold-cock single - within this same sequence of races, and your steed isn't one of the program choices.  Then, instead of only spreading, you can cover your butt with a spread (All-Single-Lock) for peanuts, and make some nice tickets with two or three in the spread leg, or one big ticket with your top choice in the spread leg, and really try to put a knot on their ass for the day.

As long and drawn out as this series has been, it doesn't scratch the surface of all the many ways there are in the game today - ways that never were available to my Dad and Uncles when they played the game and loved it - to get paid-off, and paid-off well, for picking winners, without having to listen to a bunch of elitists telling you that picking winners no longer is the most important thing in the game.  Without having to buy into a bunch of malarkey that to make a profit today, you not only have to be able to pick winners, but also have to be content when the public agrees with your strong opinion, and makes your horse an "underlay" ... whatever the hell that is ... that dang it, you just have to bite the bullet, pass the race, and wait for the next time the public decides to go brain-dead.  Or take a dump break.  Or whatever. 

It's a tough enough game without buying into a bunch of false prophets running around trying to turn it into the practice of microeconomics.

Octave-the-Rave 

It's impossible these days to attend a seminar, access a handicapping podcast, speak with a public handicapper, or pick a pro's brain without hearing the word "value."  It has become the gospel of our game's self-anointed high priests of evolved thinking, and towers over its wagering landscape like few in history, despite the fact that not many folks outside the game's elite have a clue what it really means.

Before the "theory of value" exploded into the massive black hole of misuse and misapplication it is today, it was nothing more than a by-product of one of the world's oldest and most primal economic dictates, TO WIT: the amount of risk should never exceed the expected return.  Remember that?  Economics 101?  Chapter 1: "Supply and Demand." Chapter 2: "Risk/Reward Ratio."  Chapter 3: "Late Double at the Fair Grounds." 

Along the way, the term "value" somehow has become interchangeable with words like "overlay" and "underlay," when in fact they have little practical relationship.  You know how you can know that?  Go fetch your old Economics 101 text book, blow-off the cobwebs, turn to the glossary in the back, and see if can find the words "overlay" or "underlay" anywhere in the book?  The reason you won't is because they are made-up terms that have no basis in fact, nor real-world application, and exist entirely within the mythical realm of individual perception.

In fact, if you examine closely the core of horse racing's "risk/reward ratio" in real world application, you'll find it hardly could be more 3^rd grade simple.  2/1 - Risk: $1; Reward: $2.  7/2 - Risk: $1; Reward: $3.50.  Fixed.  Known in advance. And tangible.  Even when you take it to our game's most diverse and complex levels, there you will be greeted by computers capable of estimating within a +/- 10% margin of error the likely payout on a Pick 6 ticket even before the ticket has been submitted. 

In short, for all the many real vagaries with which we as horse players have to deal every day, determining the value of our "investments" is not one of them.  Or, rather, it shouldn't be.  Unfortunately, the theories with which the term "value" has become inexorably linked, and the confusion spawned as a result, in my opinion has caused more harm than good.  The game on its merits already was the ultimate brain buster long before these new-age value disciples took to their pulpits and started rewriting the gospels.  In Greek, no less! 

Well, let's see if we can't convert some of this stuff back into simple English.

According to the new-age doctrine of value determination, today's Enlightened Player ("EP") eschews the old, stand-by Morning Line, and instead makes one of his own.  (The fact that a rather large number of these EPs have no clue what the industry-mandated formula is for creating a ML apparently is of no relevance in this system!)  This new-age ML represents the EP's estimation of each horse's "fair odds," i.e., the upper limits of his risk/reward tolerance.  For example, let's say the EP determines that "fair odds" on the #1 horse, his first choice in the race, are 5/2; and that "fair odds" on the #2 horse, his second choice in the race, are 4-1.  That means either horse is playable at his "fair odds" or higher.  Only, with a couple of minutes to post, the public has decided to hammer the EP's first choice from 5/2 all the way down to 9/5, at which point he becomes an "underlay" and a no-bet, since there no longer is sufficient reward to assume the level of risk ascribed by the EP's "fair odds."  Worse, the public also has decided to hammer the EP's second choice from 4-1 down to 5/2, making him an underlay and a no bet, as well.  Worse still, the public is boxing the dog out of the (1-2), making the exacta the biggest underlay of all.  However, the EP's third choice in the race which he had listed at 6-1 has been completely ignored by the public, and has skyrocketed all the way up to 10-1.  That horse thus becomes the "overlay," and an attractive investment, since the amount of reward now far exceeds the EP's perceived level of assumed risk.

There it is in a nutshell, folks, the new-age wagering philosophy that has taken the nation by storm, and captured the fancy of horse players the world over.  Find the value and act accordingly!  So whadda ya think?  Sounds pretty dang sexy, doesn't it?  Only, here's the real-world blow-by-blow account of that wondrous new system in practical, everyday application.

For starters, you pretty much have to get used to going to the track not only not knowing on whom you're going to wager, but even on which races you're going to wager.  The public, you see, determines that for you.  And you pretty much have to become a board watcher, and in some cases ... worse ... a pool watcher, since your mandate now becomes finding "value."   Also, you can forget about those leisurely-strolls-with-10 minutes-to-post wagers to which you've become so accustomed.  Au contraire!  This is white-knuckle, down to the bloody last minute stuff, so you better like high drama, as well.  Oh yeah, and because it is, you're just going to have to accept the fact that being shut-out a lot simply is a small price to pay for such a fabulous new betting system.  But really, though, the toughest part is learning to tell yourself on all those many, many occasions when the horse you loved the night before and thought laid-over the field but that you couldn't bet because the public agreed with you and made him an "underlay" goes ahead and beats the snot out of the horse you didn't really think could win the night before but that you wound-up betting anyway because the public agreed with you again and made him an "overlay," that your losing wager was really evolved because it had value, whereas the public's winning wager was really stupid, because it had no value.

Huh?

OK, I'm being a tad Sarah Bernhart.  A smidge facetious.  It isn't THAT bad.  But I had to exaggerate in order to make clear to all from whence this wondrous new system emerged.  I mean, who but a Canal Street pencil seller can't tell that this system sprung straight from the bowels of the NHC and its fixed-bet, value-added format - for which, by the way, it is perfectly suited - and then somehow found its way into the only demographic group even remotely capable of actually putting it in play: the hardest-core, everyday, chained-to-a-computer, non-stop-grinding-away hardboot for whom the game long ago ceased being a game, and instead became either a full-time profession, or a full-time obsession. 

Do you know anybody in his right mind who would subject himself to such lunacy in the name of sport?

Well, for me the game is neither profession nor obsession; nor, I assume, is it for you; nor would it be, I feel certain, for either of us, if this was the kind of nonsense we would have to endure everyday to make it a cost effective pursuit.

Fortunately, we don't have to.  Fortunately, there's a much better way.  It's called "going horizontal," and I'll cover that in the fourth and final installment of what rapidly is turning into a full-blown White Paper!

In the meantime, I wonder how many folks have had the nads to try my little experiment, and what they've discovered?

Octave-the-Rave

"Whatever mechanics you employ to determine the horse most likely to cross the finish line first, the end result, ideally, should be a strong opinion.  It is squarely within the framework of these strong opinions that the debate on "value" begins and ends since every bet you make throughout the course of your lifetime without a strong opinion is nothing more than an action wager."

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There are few people in the game I like and respect more than my buddy Michael King Dusst.  Years before anyone heard of Team Valor, Barry Irwin, or the Sakatoga boys, The King put together a group of friends and started a racing stable that remarkably has made money 22 of its 25 years.  One day in the midst of a particularly hot streak, I began ragging The King about how impossible it was to get a decent price on one of his horses when he made a most remarkable observation.  He said, "Listen, you mope, if you ever see one of my horses more than 2-1 at post time, it means I put him in the wrong spot!"  If you forget everything that follows, I suggest you remember those words.

In PART 1 of this piece, I submitted as fact that horse racing as a gaming pursuit revolves around our ability to consistently pick winners, and that everything else is secondary thereto.  To reaffirm, if you believe something different, this is not for you, nor should you even bother with it.

For those who agree, let's take a look at the mechanics involved in that pursuit, starting with the only mandatory item we all really need: the PPs.  For some, PPs are all they use; and for a handful, they can turn a nice profit each year using nothing more.  I cannot.  Since becoming a replay rat, the PPs have become for me a roadmap to the replay library, and it is on the basis of these replays that I pin the bulk of my analysis.  I use the Beyer figs only as a negative indicator, i.e., when a replay indicates a severely skewered number in either direction, which occurs with alarming frequency.  Conversely, I find the Brisnet speed figures often useful, especially in helping point-out an improving horse (82, 84, 89), and lone speed/clear lead.  Like everyone else, I also rely on Stable Mail, local knowledge, trainer angles, and myriad other variables - including "the Sheets" for big cards -- but my everyday #1 handicapping aide is the replay library.

Does that mean I watch replays of every horse in every race?  Of course not.  Who has the time, never mind the patience?  I don't have to.  Years ago I realized the only way I ever was going to beat this game was to concentrate exclusively on one meet at a time - and the best meet running at the time since quality horses always run truer to form than do cheap horses -- and enjoy the others as spectator sports.  For me, it's the proven path.  Is it the only way to win year in and year out?  I have no idea.  What I do know is that the person who plays one track at a time has twice as much chance of being successful as the person who plays two, and three times more chance than the person who plays three.  (If you play four or more at a time and aren't getting free limo and lunch service from your local OTB, you're getting hosed.)

Concentrating on one meet at a time provides a huge advantage starting in about the third week of the meet when horses begin to reappear.  Today, I pretty much can look at a horse's previous race over the surface and not only recall it, but glean from that performance his chances, or lack thereof, against the current field.  That elimination factor alone saves huge time with replays, and helps narrow the focus on the remaining bunch.  As more time goes by, it becomes even easier and less time consuming to eliminate the pretenders.

Whatever mechanics you employ to determine the horse most likely to cross the finish line first, the end result, ideally, should be a strong opinion.  It is squarely within the framework of these strong opinions that the debate on "value" begins and ends since every bet you make throughout the course of your lifetime without a strong opinion is nothing more than an action wager.

So what constitutes a strong opinion?  For me, it's that rare feeling of absolute assurance that a particular horse is in exactly the right spot, at precisely the right time, to the exclusion of all others in that race on that day.  In short, that a horse stands-out like the proverbial wedding phallus, and that short of a major calamity, there's no way he can get beat.

That's my definition of a strong opinion, and yours should be pretty darn close.  If it isn't, then you need to narrow your focus, and the best way to do that is by eliminating from the "strong opinion" category horses like the $25K claimer whose replay indicated that he likely would have won last time out except for an horrendous trip that the Equibase Chart boys missed completely - and you'd be amazed how often that happens - and is wheeling right back at the $35K claiming level at a juicy 12-1 morning line.  While horses like this should be Stable Mail'ed, followed, and absolutely played back, they cannot - repeat CANNOT - be "strong opinion horses" simply because your vast experience in the game tells you that his trainer is a gooberhead who saw exactly what you saw and instead of running him back at the identical $25K level where he likely would have been 9/5 to win 60 percent of a $28K purse, Mr. Slick decided instead to get greedy and take a shot at winning 60 percent of a $39K purse, while also taking a shot at cashing a nice bet as well. 

Folks, if your knowledge, experience, and understanding of the game do not point-out such things about such horses by rote, i.e., instantly and automatically, then frankly your acumen-level is no where near where it needs to be even to have a strong opinion, much less have any shot at playing this game successfully.

In PART 3, I try to explain for all the mechanics of the new-age "Value Determination" wagering system. 

Octave-the-Rave

Take a close look at the short-list of bloggers who have penned these pages almost from the beginning, and you'll find most share a common thread: rarely, if ever, do they give handicapping advice, nor espouse wagering theories.  Conversely, the list of bloggers who have come and gone from these pages, and presumably from the game, typically did nothing but give handicapping advice.  I would submit to you that is neither coincidence, nor at all unusual.  In my 40+ years in the game, it has defied coincidence how often the guy running around telling folks how not to go broke is the guy who winds-up going broke fastest of all.

It further has been my experience that the WORST public handicappers in the history of this game - from Alan "The Black Cat" LaCombe to his modern-day clone Andrew Beyer - ALL ... without exception ... preached as their sole and abiding mantra the infallibility of VALUE.

They're utterly clueless, and so totally absorbed in the bliss of their cluelessness as to preach it as gospel, and even write books about it.

God bless ‘em!  If only there were more!

To understand just how patently overrated is the "theory of value," one need simply reduce the game to its most fundamental element.  To the very first "How to" all of us were told we had to learn in order to participate in this great game.  Were your lips moving when you read that?  Were they mumbling, "Read a Racing Form?" 

And why were we told we had to learn how to read and understand that mind-boggling tabloid?  Don't look; just say it out loud.  I'm sorry, the Victrola was blaring.  What's that you said? 

So we can pick winners?

Folks, that first and most basic of all teachings remains as sacred and primal today as it was when I first learned it as a kid almost a half-century ago.  It had not changed.  What has changed is that back then, all we had was the DRF, and all we could bet was W/P/S and Daily Doubles.  Today, we have speed figures and pace figures and trip sheets and trainer angles and on-demand race replays and more.  But far more important, we have so many ways available to us today to take advantage of those winners, and create opportunities to explode their face-value that weren't even imagined 30 years ago.

Even so, the basic challenge remains unchanged, namely: determining through analysis the horse most likely to cross the finish line first, and the likely order of those to follow.  If there is anyone reading this who might disagree with that primal assessment, might I suggest you take immediate advantage of the gigantic, once-a-year blow-out currently underway at Dick's Sporting Goods on bowling equipment, and forget all about this horse nonsense.

For the rest of us, I am compelled to end this PART 1 here, and save my lessons-learned on the overrated nature of "value" until a time when it might have some relevance.  For that time to come, you my fellow horseplayers first must summon the gump to try a radical and potentially ego-shattering exercise, one that will answer with reasonable assurance the extent to which you can, or cannot, perform that most fundamental of all tenets of the game: Read a Racing Form! 

Before my younger brother the Clocker became a Brisnet Ultimate PP's convert, he began every handicapping session for years the same way: with the DRF, a cup of coffee, an 18" ruler, and a black Dryboard marker.  While his coffee was cooling, he was busy going from page to page drawing thick, straight, black lines through the Beyer Speed figures, and blacking-out every horse's morning line.  He did this every day for years.  Only then would he begin handicapping for the day.  The reason he did this is because he wanted to rid from his sphere of influence all semblance of what he considered then, and still does today, arbitrary, non-scientific, non-essential opinion, and reduce the page solely to fact.

At first, I thought he was nuts, until I happened to remember that his IQ was 40 points higher than mine, the proof of which was on display recently in a TVG feature filmed on a recent Saturday morning @ Keeneland in the midst of a non-stop, no-break 150-horse set during which as many as five singles/pairs were working at the same time, and which he kept track of and clocked from start to finish on a single stop watch!

Don't ask!

It wasn't long before I was doing the same thing, and what I discovered was life changing.  I could not believe how influenced I had become by the opinion of others until I began handicapping the races without these "crutches."  More to the point of this piece, it was that exercise that reshaped forever not only my definition of the term "value" as I had come to know it, but far more important, its true relevance within the global dictates that determine the measure of consistency we all seek at this most mentally challenging of sporting pursuits.

Unless and until you have the courage to try this exercise, I promise you will NEVER know your true level of acumen in this game, nor will you ever come to realize how overrated is the "theory of value" on which so many of us rely as our guiding light, and regard as unimpeachable truth. 

A final note: DO NOT use a Marks-a-Lot or Magic Maker.  It soaks through to the next page.  Welcome to racing's version of the "no-spin zone," but only if you have the nads!

Octave-the-Rave

Doncha love these guys who show-up out of the blue and make-up their own rules?  You know, like they own the jernt!  Oooooops ... you're right: he does!   Hey, I ain't stupid!  My Derby field follows, but first an interesting tidbit I thought I might share with you.

As you no doubt know, all ML Makers have a formula they follow when setting odds.  Briefly, they begin with the number 100 (100% of the wagering pool) and work backwards.  First, the ML Maker determines the favorite.  If, for example, the ML Fav is 2-1, he then adds a digit (2-1 + 1 = 3-1) and divides that number into 100.  The favorite thus would command 33% of the action, and the remaining horses in the field must then add-up to the remaining 67%.  Sort of!  Point in fact, all ML Makers are MANDATED not to exceed 125%, which represents 100% of the pool, plus an additional 25% allowance for the take-out -- which should be the actual, final figure -- and in fact the vast majority take advantage of this allowance to "spread" the odds better for the bettor.

And I'll bet you thought all the guy did was read the PP's and stick some arbitrary number next to the horse's name, right?  Try this sometime.  You'll be astonished how hard it is to do at first! 

Well, with the Derby's 20-horse field, and published 20 percent "mean" take-out, I got to wondering how accurate this formula was in real life application, so I went back over last year's Derby, took every horses final odds, added 1 digit, divided each of the 20 horses into 100 to get their final percentage of the total, then added those percentages to see if it added up to 120.  Here's what it looked like:

Barbaro 14.08%; Bluegrass Cat 3.23%; Steppenwolfer 5.78%; Jazil 3.97%; Brother Derek 11.49%; Showing-Up 3.67%; SNS 15.38%; Deputy Glitters 1.62%; Point Determined 9.61%; Seaside Retreat 1.85%; Storm Treasure 1.89%; Lawyer Ron 8.92%; Cause to Believe 3.71%; Flashy Bull 2.27%; Private Vow 2.41%; Sinister Minister 9.43%; Bob & John 7.19%; A. P. Warrior 6.62%; Sharp Humor 3.22%; and Keyed Entry 3.36%  =  (drum roll maestro) 119.70%! 

Whadda ya know?  There's method to the madness somewhere in racing afterall!

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Revised Derby Field Per Judge JP:

                                          PROJECTED                      FAIR

1.   Curlin                                   7/2                             5-1                              

2.   Street Sense                         9/2                             6-1                  

3.   Scat Daddy                          7-1                             8-1                  

4.   Nobiz Like Shobiz                 9-1                           10-1                

5.   Circular Quay                     10-1                             7-1                 

6.   Great Hunter                      12-1                             12-1                            

7.   Dominican                         13-1                              25-1                

8.   Cowtown Cat                     14-1                             20-1                            

9.   Hard Spun                          15-1                            12-1                              

10.  Tiago  *                            16-1                             30-1                   

11.  Any Given Saturday            17-1                            15-1                  

12.  Chelokee  **                     20-1                            25-1                  

13.  Zanjero                             26-1                            20-1                            

14.  Stormello                           34-1                            50-1                            

15.  Liquidity                             38-1                            50-1                              

16.  Cobalt Blue                         47-1                            75-1                            

17.  Sam P.                                52-1                           25-1                            

18.  Storm in May                      80-1                            150-1                          

19.  Reporting for Duty              99-1                             200-1                          

20.  Teuflesberg                        99-1                            200-1

(*) Territorial bliss if you think this horse has no chance, because every swinging Richard and Rochelle in the state of California will have a "few bucks" on their home-state horse, as they did with Lava Man who had no shot in the BC, and as they do every year.  Gotta love those California gooberheads!

(**)  The Matz connection makes this horse a lead-pipe cinch to be the Derby's overwhelming sentimental favorite, and therefore a certain underlay.  I covered him in the futures @ 27-1 for this very reason. 

P.S.:  The PROJECTED ODDS above, per the formula, add up to 119.20%.  They may not be accurate horse by horse -- or even close -- but this is what the final tote board likely will resemble.

Octave-the-Rave

Well, it's time to shoot a Judge! 

Two weeks ago when The Maven went out of his way to take a shot at last year's contest winner Jon Forbes for not blogging, I bit my tongue and resisted the urge to respond, even though I was flabbergasted.  Twice in three weeks would have been way more than enough to push my get-a-friggen-grip button, but the editorial comment that accompanies this week's Shout-out is even more outrageous.

So, let's set the record straight, shall we?

In last year's contest final, Maven voted for MALL; Whitey voted for me; and JP voted for Jon Forbes.  When I bailed from consideration for reasons that will become eminently clear, Whitey changed his vote to Jon Forbes, and thus was crowned the victor.

The announcement of that victory came during the first week in December, 2006.  Following the announcement, Jon Forbes posted five, full-length blogs in the month of December, including (in my opinion) the best and most important blogs posted on these pages in 2006: his exceptional Racing Symposium coverage.  In January, he posted again, and even apologized for his recent absence, citing what I thought was a fairly reasonable excuse: COLLEGE FINALS!  In February of this year, he posted again, this time his exceptional paper on Racing in Sweden, at which point his active blogging ceased - A/O February, 2007 - and his assignment for Horse Player Magazine began in earnest.

The last entry submitted by Maven's candidate MALL was posted on November 19, 2006, two weeks BEFORE the announcement of the contest winner.  Once the announcement came, Mall of the Friggen' Americas was never heard from again.  Now assuming Mall's still alive, who in your opinion deserves to be singled-out for blogging "only for money," and thrashed for disappearing from these pages: MALL or The Kid?

Wait, hold that thought.  There's more to the story about which few folks are aware, and that the time has come to reveal.

The reason I bailed from contest consideration last year was because the thought of researching and writing six, full-length feature stories for publication in a single calendar year - and doing them well - struck me as a practical impossibility.  Mind you, I've made my living writing for more than 20 years, and have a lot more free-time than most, as you can tell.  Still, six full-length features in one year?  Research.  Photos.  Interviews.  Draft.  Rewrite.  More rewrites.  Edits for accuracy.  Edits for compliance.  Final copy to Jeremy.  Edits/cuts/recommended rewrites from Jeremy. Final, final copy back to Jeremy. Final revisions.  Final layout.  Publication.

Every other month!  Six times in one year?  Are you kidding me?

I couldn't do it.  Not for $3,000.  Not for $30,000, because I can't eat on thirty grand, and this gig not only would have been my full-time job, but I would have been stressed to the max every second of every month worrying about meeting the deadline.  And let me state again: I've been doing this exact thing professionally for more than 20 years, and was published nationally for the first time in 1975.

For a rookie to undertake something of this magnitude ... for a 23-year-old kid barely out of college who has never published anything in his life and ... AND ... has a full-time job or Graduate School or both ... strikes me as overwhelming.  Blog?  It's a wonder to me the kid has time to shi ... eat.  The fact that so far he not only has done it, but done it well, speaks volumes as to who made the right choice last year, and who put his money on a slug.  On a DNF.  On a big, fat WD.

Maven, you are so out-of-line it is unbelievable, and you owe Jon Forbes not one, but two apologies.

Octave-the-Rave

OK, boys and girls, dress rehersals are over.  It almost Show Time.  What say a challenge?  Let's see who can come closest to naming the 20 starters in this year's Derby, along with their riders, and likely post time odds.  Remember, not the odds to indicate the horses you like, but rather the odds you think the public will make the horses at post time. (And good luck keeping those columns straight!!!)

********************************************************

PP       HORSE                                  TRAINER                 JOCKEY                    OFF ODDS

1.         Any Given Saturday             Pletcher, T.                Dominguez, R.             17-1    

2.         Chelokee                             Matz, M.                     Prado, E.                  26-1

3.         Circular Quay                      Pletcher, T.                Velazquez, J.            10-1

4.         Cobalt Blue                         O'Neill, D.                   Espinoza, V.              47-1

5.         Cowtown Cat                      Pletcher, T.                Jara, F.                     14-1

6.         Curlin                                  Asmussen, S.             Albarado, R.              7/2

7.         Dominican                           Miller, D.                    Bejarano, R.              13-1

8.         Great Hunter                       O'Neill, D.                  Nakatani, C.               11-1

9.        Hard Spun                          Jones, L.J.                Pino, M.                      15-1    

10.        Liquidity                             O'Neill, D.                 Flores, D.                    38-1    

11.       Nobiz Like Shobiz                Tagg, B.                   Velasquez, C.               9-1    

12.       Reporting for Duty              Asmussen, S.            Meche, L.                     99-1  

13.        Sam P.                                Pletcher, T.              Desormeaux, K.           52-1 

14.       Scat Daddy                          Pletcher, T.              Gomez, G.                    7-1 

15.       Stormello                             Currin, W.               Plonk, J.                      34-1

16.       Storm in May                       Kaplan, W.               Leyva, J.                      80-1

17.      Street Sense                         Nafzger, C.              Borel, C.                       9/2

18.      Teuflesberg                          Snaders, J.              Elliot, S.                       99-1    

19.      Tiago                                    Sheriffs, J.               Smith, M.                     23-1   

20.      Zanjero                                 Asmussen, S.           Leparoux, J.                17-1   

Octave-the-Rave

"He was two works short, but I had to get a race into him," Tagg said.

Trainer Barclay Tagg following Showing Up's loss in the G2 Maker's Mark Mile

**********************************************************************

You folks know how I feel about Mr. Tagg.  I thought his decision to run Showing Up in last year's G2 Jamaican instead of the Breeders' Cup was less an embarrassment for the sport than it was startling proof of how little Mr. Tagg actually knew about his horse's ability after training him for more than a year.

I'm sure all by now have read Jeremy's latest edition of Countdown to the Crown.  For the record, his opening salvo at trainers who wait ‘til the bloody last minute to ship TC entrants to the subject track -- and his spot-on request for a tenet precluding this practice -- easily could be called, "The Barclay Tagg Rule."  Mr. Tagg did it with Funny Cide in '03; did it again last year with Showing Up; and no doubt will follow that same tact this year with No Biz.  For all the worthy racing/wagering points Jeremy made for why this practice should be stopped you can add this one: it's extremely inconsiderate.  I saw first-hand the logistical nightmares Mr. Tagg caused last year for CD with this self-absorbed practice.

Moreover, I couldn't agree more with Jeremy's adroit observation that No Biz Like Shobiz's Wood Memorial DID NOT raise his Derby stock, and in fact pointed to a horse who is every bit as green today as he was as a juvenile.  And unless No Biz is an exceptionally stupid animal who had to be weaned of the habit of eating with his butthole, the absolute very least one should expect from a marginally capable conditioner at this late date is that his Derby candidate no longer resembles a four-year-old school kid in a playground relay.

Comes now the above quote attributed to Mr. Tagg following Showing Up's loss in the Maker's Mark Mile.  Not one work short, mind you, but two works short!  Twenty-one to 30 days short of being ready, depending on how quickly he recovers!  Folks, prior to yesterday, Showing Up hadn't run since last friggen' Thanksgiving!  That's almost five months of inactivity, yet he was still 21-30 days short of being ready for a quarter million dollar Grade 2?  Are you kidding me?

I wonder how many folks like me singled Showing Up in their horizontal wagers yesterday?  It cost me a P3 with a $41 winner; a second P3 with a $59 winner; and the P4 with both!  How's your math?  Still, it's a fraction of the $100,000 it cost Roy and Gretchen Jackson.  And that's utterly insignificant compared to the extraordinary risk Tagg took running their potential $30 - 50 million superstar two works short of being ready.  To me, it is nothing short of mind-bending.

I've been around the game a long time.  What I feel extremely comfortable in submitting is that the number of trainers in history who have run horses in G2 events two works short of being ready likely can be counted on two hands.  What I can assure you with absolute certainty is that NONE ... not a single one ... ever was stupid enough after the fact to admit it aloud to a reporter with a microphone in his hand.

Octave-the-Rave 

I'll be watching the 3rd Future Pool closely to see if Chelokee goes up from his current 15-1, which to me is an obscene, almost idiotic price on a horse who may not even get in.  Seriously, can anyone fathom Chelokee being the same ML number in this pool as Notional, Cowtown Cat, and Any Given Saturday? 

What was that wickdeed thinking about?

I'll be watching The Oaks pool even closer to see if the current price of 10-1 holds on my namesake Octave -- who I can't fathom (Or is it whom?  Let's see:  "Knock, knock.  Who's there?  F**k!  F**k who?  It's whom.  F**k whom!"  Right.  Got it.) ... whom I can't fathom being higher than 9-2 or 5/1 by post.  What I'm afraid of is that Rags to Riches at 2-1 might get overlooked, and that her price might drift-back up to her previous closing odds of 3.5 - 1.  As a race horse, Rags to Riches has been jaw-dropping, and with the exception of Octave, this might be the most mediocre bunch of 3YO fillies slated for The Oaks since ... since ... last year! 

I'll be shocked if by post time Rags to Riches is a click higher than 8/5, which could set-up an interesting dilemma come Sunday night.

Octave-the-Rave

BTW, did I happen to mention that math was never my strong suit?  Turns out the 1/8th mile World Record of :09.60 reported by Thoroghbred Times from Monday's Select 2YO's in Training sale, and the 9.3 seconds time I reported a few days earlier, are identical.  The :09.60 reported by Thoroghbred Times is the actual work in hundreds of seconds, while the 9.3 shown on the screen by Keeneland following the work was the old stand-by clocker's designation of fifths of a minute!

OK, now that we've cleared that up -- and I'm still mind-boggled that a 2YO baby can run that fast on Polytrack -- maybe yawl can help me with this:

Train "A" leaves the station heading North going 45 MPH.  Train "B" ...

DUH!

Octave-the-Rave

You'll recall on Monday I reported some ungodly times coming-out of the 2YOs in Training Time Trials on Keeneland's Polytrack surface, including a :9.3 and a couple of :9.4's for the 1/8th mile distance.  In a later posting, I noted that those figures had been "adjusted upward" to :9.6 and :9.8, the former still being a world record.

I was watching the trials live, and recording the times on my HIP sheet, so I knew my original reporting was accurate.  As for the "adjustment," I have no clue what promted that, but below is the actual link to the archive of works, complete with video, for your amazement and enjoyment:

http://ww2.keeneland.com/sales/lists/workout%20videos/allitemsalt.aspx

Octave-the-Rave

A Yankee Gentlemen colt and a Lemon Drop Kid filly ran two furlongs in :20.20 at the under-tack show on Monday at Keeneland Race Course for the Keeneland April selected two-year-olds in training sale.  Keeneland officials reported the quarter-mile times were a world record for a two-year-olds in training sale.  Additionally, a Mineshaft filly from the consignment of Hartley/De Renzo Thoroughbreds, agent, worked one furlong in :9.60 to tie the world record for that distance at a two-year-olds in training sale.

Thoroughbred Times - April 10, 2007

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TWO THINGS: 1) This has Cowboy-Up written all over it!  And, 2) On my helluva handicapping, dear, sweet, missed-to-this-day Momma's headstone, I posted this BEFORE reading this week's Shout-Outs!!!  (There's a Master Card "priceless" in here somewhere!)

In addition to the two world records noted above, Thoroughbred Times also reported that a total of nine babies broke the magic 10 second barrier for an eighth of a mile "breeze."  That figure is nothing short of mind boggling.  Equally as mind boggling is the following.

According to the DRF, earlier that same morning (58) "older" horses logged 5/8^th mile works on the main track work tab.  Despite a set working in company going 1:04.4, the average time for the 58 works was 1:00.24.

Remember, that was Monday.

This morning ... Wednesday ... (27) "older" horses logged 5/8^th mile works on the main track work tab.  By my calculations, the average time today was 1:02.20.  That's almost two full seconds slower!

For starters, who isn't shocked ... and I mean TOTALLY SHOCKED ... by Monday's times?  Who could ever have imagined that ANY poly-type racing surface currently in place at any race track in North America could produce not one, but two WORLD RECORD TIMES in the same day?  Remember, this isn't some phantom event or cosmic distance.  Two year olds have been running 1/8^th mile time trials on dirt surfaces for almost half a century!

I'll be just as shocked if Dean Beyer isn't flipping his wig right about now.  I suggest you keep an eye on his column in the DRF.  I'd bet the farm he's going to be on this phenomenon with both feet, and will be asking the same how-the-flying-frog-can-that-be type questions a lot of us were asking back in November following the Breeders' Cup.

Which reminds me, I probably should call and prep the Keeneland boys in advance.  You know?  Since I know all the pat answers:

"I'm dumbfounded.  I don't know what to say." 

"Musta been the Dirt Ferry's colloidal cousin, the Poly Ferry!"

"What speed bias?"

"I'm sorry ... we're breakin' up ... hello? ... hello? ... "

Octave-the-Rave

"Racing, Christiansen believes, is managed like an art institution, with a management mind-set that seems to say, "I like racing, and if the public doesn't, the hell with them."

Eugene Christiansen - World-Renowned Gaming Consultant

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If you haven't already, copy the link below, paste it to your browser, and read this article.  It is stunning ... electrifying ... and DUH !!! ... everything we've been screaming on here for more than a year!

http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=83732&subs=0&arc=0

Octave-the-Rave

"It just confirms that many in the industry see us as marks, derelicts, compulsive gamblers, fools, or some combination that don't deserve any real consideration that a customer in any other commercial enterprise would receive."

Caesar's Ghost - The Big Blog Pages - April 9, 2007

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I just read with interest the Ghost's follow-up to Silver Charm's blog lamenting the 2.5% "stand-alone" take-out imposed by some OTB parlors.  Of particular note is the underlined portion of the above-captioned observation.  If you think that observation isn't spot-on, consider the following.

I live in a large metropolitan area of South Florida about 75 north of Calder and Gulfstream.  When I moved here in 1986, there were two active pari-mutual licenses authorized by the State of Florida for my county.  One was operated by a Jai-Alai fronton, the other by a dog track.  For about five years following the advent of simulcasting, both venues offered full-blown simulcast horse wagering.  Although the dog track was a much nicer facility, many times my buds and I would hit the Jai-Alai fronton because it was a shorter jaunt.  In 1994, an announcement hit the papers that the Jai-Alai Fronton, a family-owned fixture in the County since 1955, had been sold, and "was closing temporarily" for renovations.

In fact, it has never re-opened to this day.  The building has stood vacant for more than 13 years! 

Astonishingly, the new owners turned-out to be the same family that owns and runs the dog track!  They turned around and sold the building at a nice profit to Don King, whose intent was to convert it into a boxing auditorium.  Lord knows what happened to that deal, but here's the kick in the head: King bought the building WITHOUT the pari-mutual license!  It is still owned by the same family that owns and runs the only other licensed pari-mutual facility in the county.  It, too, has sat dormant for more than 13 years! 

Now ... now go back and take a second look at the underlined portion of The Ghost's observation, then try to recall Economics 101, and something called the Sherman Antitrust Act of 1890.  Remember that?  The 117-year-old, written-in-stone statute that precludes restraint of trade, and expressly prohibits the creation of monopolies?

In addition to playing Augusta National and attending The World Cup live in Dubai, getting to the bottom of how this extraordinary phenomenon in modern American enterprise passed the Florida Legislature is on my list of things to do before I die, and the longer the building sits empty and this travesty continues, the more startling will be the story when it finally unfolds.  In the meantime, strap this little tidbit on to the controversy just for good measure.

On Breeders' Cup Day 1999, I walked into the Dog Track just as I had a thousand times or more since the closing of the Jai-Alai Fronton in '94.  In all that time, I had never been charged a dime for the privilege of betting my money.  On this particular day, I was informed that the price of admission was $35, and included lunch.  More succinctly, a short-order menu consisting of sandwiches and salads, the most expensive of which on a normal day is about $12.  That practice continues to this day for The Derby, Preakness, Belmont, and Breeders' Cup, and no one is exempt from the "cover" charge. 

Do you think they could get away with that kind of garbage if there was a competing venue in the county that offered simulcast horse wagering?  Not a friggen' chance.

Since that day, I have averaged a couple of dozens visits a year to the Kennel Club just to commiserate with my buddies, whereas I used to go 4-5 times a week.  Even then, I too sneak-out the side door and call-in my big plays to my Brisbet account.  The idea of giving these scoundrels the take-out on my wagering action makes me sick to the marrow of my bones.

Granted, there isn't a whole lot we can do as individuals to counter the gross injustices in our sport.  That said, I'm absolutely convinced that if more of us did them, and did them with conviction, they wouldn't be nearly as prevalent today as they are.

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Interesting doings over the weekend and this morning @ Keeneland, with Circular Quay and others putting in works.  However, the 2YOs slated for next Tuesday's Select Sale @ Keeneland -- 200 in all -- are doing their time trials today, and suffice to say my brother is buried.  (Get a load of these little monsters.  He said they've already had several "9-and-changes," including a 9.3 and a 9.4!  That's 9.3 seconds for an eighth-of-a-mile!!!  Wait 'til you see these prices!)

[NOTE:  The above times later adjusted to 9.6 and 9.8]

Meanwhile, you will find his info as it's posted under this same "Keeneland Derby Works" heading.  Each posting will be listed by sequential numbering (KDW-1, -2, -3, etc.) so we can keep track going forward.

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For years, I and others have lobbied Equibase to put the symbol "G" in a square -- or some similar designation -- either in the PP's, or the program/entries, or both, to denote "first-time geldings."  Seems a simple enough request, does it not, yet not only have they never done it, I can show you horses owned by my buddies still listed as colts/horses in the PP's today who were whacked six months ago!  Today, I decided to do what I thought would be some quick research.  Folks, if you'd like to see our sport at its most convoluted, just click on the link below and check-out the all-new, Rapid Reporting System for geldings:

http://www.registry.jockeyclub.com/registryIncludes/flash gelding/index.html

If this is the new rapid system, wouldn't you love to know what the old system was!  Unbelievable!

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All the talk leading to the Bluegrass Stakes this Saturday no doubt will be about No Biz's sterling victory in the Wood Memorial.  By my calculations, he staggered the last 3/8ths in 38.56, with a final quarter somewhere in the neighborhood of 26.10.  Those are not the finishing fractions of a horse looking forward to the Derby's grueling extra eighth of a mile.  Tiago's last 3/8ths was better in the Santa Anita Derby, but only slightly.  He finished-up in 37.85, with a final quarter somewhere around 25.75.  Cowtown Cat's performance in the Illinois Derby was "fastest" of the three, although an argument could be made that his performance was the least impressive.  I caught his last 3/8ths in 37.65, with his final quarter in the neighborhood of 25.40, but that was after walking the first three-quarters in 1.13.56.  With respective final times of 1.51.21 for Cowtown Cat, 1.49.51 for Tiago, and 1.49.46 for No Biz Like Shobiz, it will be interesting to see what their final Beyer numbers are, but I'll be shocked if any top the 100 mark.  I suspect the Raguzin numbers more accurately will reflect what I perceived as thoroughly uninspiring performances by all three winners, and to an even greater extent, those who were left in the wakes of these dawdling finishes.

The exception might be Any Given Saturday, who looked liked a tired horse even before Johnny V. gave him the parking lot tour once again.  That said, this was never a race that AGS had to win, just hit the board, and to me, that perfectly explains the expeditious route JV chose.

So where does that leave us heading into the Bluegrass Stakes?  It leaves us with Street Sense, Great Hunter, and Hard Spun, and to a lesser extent Ketchikan and Zanjero.  About the latter and regarding that sizzling 1:12 flat ¾'s work at Keeneland last Monday in company with Curlin (as reported on the new "Countdown to the Crown" page), my brother observed that Zanjero was all out to pass Curlin and never did, while Curlin basically was pricking his ears and having fun!  Frankly, I find it astonishing that so many trainers have decided to contest the Bluegrass Stakes just 21 days prior to the Derby.  Instead, I'd be far more inclined at this point to favor the tactics of Circular Quay with eight weeks rest and a fresh horse, historical precedent notwithstanding.  Barbaro came into last year's Derby off five weeks rest, and all he did was blow the doors off the world in the race, then gallop-out like he wanted to go around again.

I'd love to see a grueling race in the Bluegrass for all three top contenders.  I'm still confident that Pletcher will enter only four horses in the Derby - Scat Daddy, Circular Quay, Any Given Saturday, and Cowtown Cat - and save King of the Roxy, Sam P., and Soaring By for the Preakness.  Remember, Pletcher will be under huge pressure all week not only to break his 0-for-14 Derby record, but also to win a Kentucky Oaks that basically already has been conceded to him with the overwhelming top two favorites in Rags to Riches and Octave.  That's six horses!  Can you imagine looking after the well-being of six horses during Derby week?  I simply can't fathom him taking on a greater burden, but stranger things have happened.

If these variables do play out - and of course I could be 100% in left field on all of them - the likelihood is it will open the door for Chelokee, to me the complete mystery horse in this year's field of contenders.  No one, not even Michael Matz, has yet to see a "clean" race from Chelokee, nor has a clue about his true potential.

So, short of a stunning hand-ride win in the Blue Grass from either Great Hunter or Hard Spun - and I doubt it will be Street Sense, since Calvin figures to find his ass in the infield this time if he even thinks about coming-up the wood - Chelokee could be the sleeper in this year's Kentucky Derby sponsored by ...

BTW, you have my permission to shoot me if I ever write that tripe!

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UPDATE A/O 04/09 - 12:09 pm:  Wow, I'm shocked!  Apparently the Beyer boys agreed.  Here are the numbers just released:  Tiago - 100; No Biz Like Shobiz - 98; Cowtown Cat - 98!

Is there a doubt in anyone's mind who the best filly in the G1 Ashland was today at Keeneland?  Talk about a girl with seconditis!  Nor can I fault Garrett Gomez for the ride, nor Todd Pletcher for the tactics.  Despite being slammed from both sides coming out of the gate, it was apparent the tactics today were to take her back anyway, where she would have been in the BC Fillies had everyone else not fallen asleep, and where she was in the FG Oaks, despite the dawdling pace.  Like her sire Unbridled's Song, clearly she does her best running covered-up, and with a target to shoot at.  The problem with those kind is that so much depends on racing luck, and she had none today.  Even when it looked like she'd get clear at the head of the lane, Julien Leparoux inexplicably layed all over her -- not once but twice -- when he had to know he had no horse under him.  That was all it took to allow the winner to spurt-clear on the wood, and barely last.

The very good news is I can't recall when a filly was better prepared coming into a Kentucly Oaks.  As you know, Oaks Day is locals day, and truth be told it has become my favorite day of Derby week.  I would have been lit-up even if I thought she had little chance of winning.  Instead, with the race's demanding extra eighth-of-a-mile, Churchill Down's long stretch, the already confirmed presence of speed ball Baroness Thatcher, and the fact that her stable mate Rags to Riches figures to get all the attention at the windows, don't be surprised if you see a Horseplayerdaily.com ballcap in this year's Kentucky Oak's winner's circle celebration.

By the way, JP, that's a LARGE hint!

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One of the first things my dad taught me when I was a kid was the importance of reading the conditions of a race.  What I didn't realize 'til many years later was that @ FG in the early 60's, the going rate for an owner or trainer to get the Racing Secretary to write a race for him was a case of Old Crow!  Times have changed, but still it remains a key handicapping angle, especially at short, 15-day meets like Keeneland where Racing Secretaries use their leverage to "write" races as a means of encouraging powerhouse stables to bring-in their big guns.  Saturday's 7th race is a perfect example.  Check-out the conditions:

1 1/8 Mile. (Turf). Alw 67000C Purse $67,000.  FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON $35,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OVER A MILE ON THE TURF SINCE JUNE 30.  Weight, 123 lbs.

The conditions go on to provide weight allowances up to five pounds for horses that haven't won squat under these same conditions, and sure enough, of the 11 horses entered, all carry 118 pounds except one, BRILLIANT, who carries the maximum 123.  That alone gives you a good idea for whom the race was written.  However, on closer inspection, it becomes really obvious.  On June 17th of last year, BRILLIANT won the G2 Jefferson Cup at 1 1/8th miles.  June 17th -- just 13 days prior to the cut-off date for eligibility under these conditions.  And at 4/5, no less, about what he figures to be on Saturday.  Or less!

Not all "written" races are this obvious, nor are the horses for whom the race was "written" always prohibitive favorites.  Sometimes they manage to fly-in under the radar.  Nor do they all win.  Just most of them.  Like ... big time most!  The key is the "since" date.  The closer a horse's victory is to the "since" date that otherwise would eliminate him from eligibility, the more likely it is the Racing Secretary had the horse squarely in mind when he wrote the race.

I suspect we'll be seeing this a lot over the next 14 racing days.  Be alert ... pay close attention to the conditions ... and the likelihood is one or more of these under-the-radar types will catch the public napping.

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Read the conditions of today's 8th race at Keeneland, and factor-in SHOWING-UP's rare public workout for the opening-day crowd, and it becomes eminently clear that the race was written for Funny Cide.  Racing Secretaries often will write races at the behest of certain owners/trainers, or to accommodate special situation horses.  The practice is fairly common, although rarely does the horse for whom the race is written perform as poorly as Funny Cide, who beat two horses, and was never in the hunt.  Of course, the story will be that he "disliked the Polytrack surface," but truth be told, a former Kentucky Derby champion has no business even being in an optional claimer, much less embarrassing himself to the extent Funny Cide did.

I distinctly remember how appalled Louisville's oldguard, blueblood establishment was in 2003 that a gelding even was entered in the Derby.  It was THE topic of conversation all week long, and folks there didn't mince words about the yayhoos from New York with the gall to defy a certain unwritten, unbreakable law of the land.  Following his victory, the outcry locally to ban geldings from the race  was immediate and palpable, yet drew little attention outside Kentucky because of the enormous publicity those "little guys" had garnered from the national media.  Even when the subject was broached nationally, the slant always was in favor of the Sakatoga boys, and against the Kentucky bluebloods, whose outcries invariably were dismissed as "sour grapes."

Well, I wonder what those same media-types would say about the appearance of a Kentucky Derby Champion in an optional claimer, regardless of how he fared?  To me, it is unconscionable, and yet another glaring indication that the entire Triple Crown process is in dire need of re-tooling.  In my opinion, geldings absolutely should be banned from the race, if for no other reason but to preclude this kind of embarrassment.  But far more germane, the race itself holds in the balance tens of millions of dollars for our American breeding industry; and our breeding industry is the lifeblood of the sport.  Already we've seen the industry take a huge hit from the Japanese, Saudis, and others with their carte blanche pilfering of our stallion stock.  Carte blanche!  No regulation; no special conditions; no export fees or industry-imposed tariffs to help offset the damage.  For years, I've thought it insane, yet it continues unabated.  Banning geldings from Triple Crown races at least would ensure the integrity of our newly-crowned 3YO champions each year, without tossing those tens of millions atop a shedrow next to some horse's reproductive organs.

I also feel adamantly that three Grade 1's at 2-turns for almost four miles at three different tracks in a span of five weeks in the heat of early summer for 30-month-old babies is the definition of INSANITY, and the primary reason why so many of our potentially great young horses -- those who survive, anyway -- are never heard from again.  Tradition notwithstanding, the laundry-list of dead and permanently crippled young horses over the past decade leaves little room for debate that the time is long past due to change the Triple Crown schedule to the first week in May, the first week in June, and the first week in July, but that's a whole 'nother blog in itself.

For now, hopefully the powers-that-be in our sport will take a cue from the not-so-funny side of Funny Cide, and restrict the Triple Crown races to colts and fillies.

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Nice way to start the meet, Keeneland!  While we in cyberspace and on simulcast outlets across the globe were watching a replay of the first race, patrons on track were watching turf superstar SHOWING UP working on the turf course.  (I have to believe SOMEONE taped the work, and will show it before the day is out.)  With Cornelio Velasquez in the irons, SHOWING-UP breezed a half-mile in fractions of 26.13, 50.99, before being set-down for the final quarter, completing the six panels in 1.14.06.  What's eye-popping about the work was that final quarter.  SHOWING-UP polished-off the last quarter in a scintillating 23.07 -- into a 20-30 MPH head wind!

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My brother just called to say that SHOWING-UP, arguably the best turf specialist in America, will be working LIVE, under tack, on the Keeneland Turf Course tomorrow (opening day) between the first and second live races.  No confirmed word yet on who will be airing the work, but almost certainly TVG, HRTV, and Brisbet will provide a feed for viewers.

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For those who might be new to The Big Blog Pages, do not fail to click-on the link on HPdaily.com's home page entitled, "Countdown to the Crown."  There you will find the most comprehensive pre-Derby coverage under one roof anywhere in cyberspace.  As good as it is now, it only figures to get better and better the closer we get to the big day.  About the only thing you will not find on there is live, on-track updates of this year's Derby crop, and we're about to take care of that little item right here on The Big Blog Pages.

As most of you are aware, Keeneland's all-weather surface will be hosting Derby preparations for many of this year's East Coast-based candidates, several of whom already have arrived.  On Monday, my brother returned to the Clocker's stand at Keeneland, and will be manning the watch for every Derby workout from now until they depart for Louisville.  

By way of background, my brother has been a clocker for more than 25 years; routinely keeps tabs on upwards of 200 horses in a single session; and generally is regarded among the two or three best watchmen in the industry.  When I say "keep tabs," I mean by markings, and by mid-meet, almost exclusively by memory!  He also just completed his first year of double-duty as FG's Morning Line maker.  Despite having to provide the ML 96 hours in advance of race day - the longest lead-time in the nation - he came within an eyelash of breaking the meet record, finishing with a top-choice win-rate of 37.86 percent.

Beginning next week and continuing straight-up through Derby week, I'll be sharing with you under this banner my brother's personal observations on every Derby horse that takes to the Keeneland surface - whether working or merely galloping - along with the same "star" system he's used for years to rate a horse's overall appearance/impression.  He has no idea who's working on what day until they show-up and report, so you'll just have to check-in often, and for sure every afternoon as we get closer to the big day, and the morning activity reaches it peak.

Finally, either Mike Welch or Marcus Hirsch of the DRF will arrive sometime next week to begin their own daily posting of observations of this year's Derby crop in the DRF.  Both are exceptional at this unique assignment, although no one, in my opinion, is better than Welsh.  Year-in and year-out, his pre-race observations of Derby and BC candidates are uncannily accurate.  Of the 14 2006 BC participants about whom Welch had guarded-to-less-than-favorable observations, only one - Friendly Island - hit the board.  The rest got drubbed.  It will be interesting to see how my brother's observations stack-up with Welch's.  That said, if I had access to only one, I'd pick my brother in a heartbeat.

How's that for pressure, little bro!

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Sweet Haysoos, is this sport ever gonna catch a break?  Comes now a genuine, potential superstar, and wouldn't you know she's the new Poster Girl for the Nitwit Brigade!

OK, maybe I'm overly sensitive.  Maybe I feel too strongly about the extent to which I dearly would love our sport at least to be conscious of ... if not actually make a concerted effort to do something about ... the primordial ignorance with which it is so universally viewed by the rest of the world of organized sport.  I mean, how tough must it have been for educated men like Tom Hammond, Randy Moss, and others on Breeders' Cup Day to have to keep saying "Orientate" over and over, singularly the most ignorant fricken' word a broadcast journalist can utter, never mind having him win, and having that monument to insipidity splashed all over the world press.

Comes now the magnificent filly Magnificience.  Only, take a close look at her name.  For the record, the correct pronunciation is:  mag-ni-fi-CI-ence!  Do you think that's what the owner had in mind when he sent in her name-request form to The Jockey's Club?  Or did Bruce Headley, or whoever named her, in fact mean to name her mag-NI-fi-cence, and couldn't spell a word that most sixth graders can handle without a spell-checker?  And I wonder which track announcer will be the first to have the nads ... OK, check that, I mean the awareness, and then the nads, to pronounce her name correctly ... as spelled ... since it already has zoomed over Trevor's head not once, but twice.  I guarantee you Vic Stauffer (Hey Che-if) will.  I suspect so will John G. Dooley.  And I have no doubt Mr. Durkin will have some fun with her name.

Wait ... I'm getting a vision ... a headline ... the Courier-Journal ... November 2, 2014:

MAGNIFICIENTATE WINS BREEDERS' CUP SPRINT!

Tongue-in-cheek?  I only wish ...

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Octave-the-Rave Blogger Horseplayerdaily.com 

Following Discreet Cat's disappointing performance in the Dubai World Cup last night (Saturday, March, 31), he has undergone a complete veterinary check at Al Quoz Stables this morning. This included an endoscopic examination of his respiratory tract, which revealed an obstructive granulomatous mass within his throat, in addition to significant swelling of the underlying throat wall, as a result of an infective process. In the opinion of the Godolphin veterinary surgeons, this would have affected his performance, firstly by physically obstructing the airflow into his throat and lungs, and secondly by causing him significant discomfort. He is now undergoing appropriate treatment and assessments. Discreet Cat had a routine endoscopic examination performed of his respiratory airways earlier in the week, and no abnormalities were found.

Note:  I BOLDED the last sentence!!  Otherwise, this is the verbatim announcement a/o 9:00 am Dubai time (2:00 am EST) today, April 1, 2007.

(And, NO, this is NOT an April Fool's joke, although it certainly reads like one!)

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Here are a few lessons I learned on Saturday that might serve you well on Breeders' Cup Day, and absolutely will serve you well for next year's World Cup:

>>>  Invest $14.95 and become an on-line subscriber to Britain's The Racing Post. There you will find a library of race replays not only for the Euro entrants, but also those of the Japanese who - thanks to good old American greed - have parlayed their stallion pilfering into a world-class racing operation that no longer can be ignored on racing's two biggest stages.

>>> Eschew the layoff horses! In yesterday's World Cup, "recency" was as key an angle as any throughout the day. Every winner, without exception, had raced at least once in 2007, and most more than once. Even the few coming off long layoffs who did run well like Sir Percy obviously were "short" horses. Most got drubbed.

>>> Be aware of trainer/barn cycles coming into big events. As Randy Moss pointed-out during the re-broadcast, Goldophin was an ice-cold 3-for-44 for the year coming into The World Cup, yet their horses got pounded at the windows throughout the day, including some of my sponduits on Day Pass. For the record, Big Blue's 10 runners finished 5^th, 11^th, 7^th, 9^th, 10^th, 10^th, 15^th, 5^th, 13^th, and last - at 4/5. (Wait ‘til you read the results of Discreet Cat's post-race physical! If not the pinnacle in creative excuse-making, then surely a Guinness Book anomaly for the Veterinary community. Unbelievable!)

>>> In the Shaheen @ The World Cup, give huge credence to any horse drawn in Posts 1 through 6 with tactical speed, and toss every horse outside Post 6 without tactical speed. I got to Kelly's Landing late, and he turned-out to be the key to my day. That said, he was not the best horse. I would love to know how much further Friendly Island ran than K.L., despite being only five stalls removed. If ever the geometric axiom, "the shortest distance between two points is a straight line" can be applied to horse racing, it's the Golden Shaheen.

>>> DO GOOD WORK! If on Thursday and Friday before The World Cup or The Breeders' Cup you're still handicapping cheap claiming races at your local venue instead of studying the WC/BC cards, clearly the financial aspects of this game are not among your priorities. Nor after all these years and the staggering payouts that routinely are the hallmark of these two rare days in our sport does that contention require a shard of further explanation.

And finally ...

>>> If you've been in this game for any length of time and still find yourself betting fillies against colts and mares against older horses, here's a pointed adviso: do it quietly! Ouija Broad's nickname around the barn was "Butch," and she reportedly raced motorcycles on her off days. Statistically, it is now, and has been from the dawn of time, one of the worst bets in the game.

The lessons I learned yesterday I paid to learn.  Nature of the beast!  Fortunately, I knew a few more going in that more than offset the investment.  Perhaps you also have some "lessons learned" about these unique racing days that the rest of us can apply going forward to the Breeders' Cup.

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Shortly after the Barbaro Memorial Fund was announced, Churchill Downs reportedly ordered 100,000 "Riding with Barbaro" blue wrist bands for sale during Derby Week to support the effort.  If the $100K Chelokee banked for finishing third in the Florida Derby following yet another calamitous trip somehow gets him to the Big Dance, CD likely will wish they had purchased more.

Chelokee, like Barbaro, is trained by Michael Matz.  It's been 10 years since Kentucky saw back-to-back Derby winners.  The conditioner was Bob Baffert and with his Left Coast roots, laid-back style, and disdain for tradition, the likelihood that Mr. Baffert ever was going to be a favorite son of the bluegrass bluebloods was remote, at best.  Not so Michael Matz.

It's hard to put into words the impact Barbaro's legacy has had on the City of Louisville.  For an entire generation of Louisvillians raised in the shadow of Churchill Downs, weaned on tales of the legendary Secretariat, and told repeatedly how his equal never again would grace the twin spires, in Barbaro finally they have their own larger-than-life superhero to share with their kids and grandkids.  To a person, they know the names Jackson, Matz, Prado, and Richardson as well as they know their own.  And yet, I'm sure few could have imagined they'd see Matz back in Louisville in 2007 except as an honored guest of their great city.  Well, not only could he find himself back in Louisville with steed in tow, but one I believe has a giant chance to put him back in the winner's circle.  Here's why.

If you go back and look at the tape of Chelokee's N1X win at Gulfstream, it's pretty amazing.  I can't remember the last time at Gulfstream a horse got stopped on the far turn, dropped back to dead last, then managed to catch the entire field in that short stretch and still win going away, much less a three-year-old.  Chelokee make it look routine.  And except for steadying again today around the entire far turn behind a tiring Stormello, and then being completely sawed-off at the 1/8^th pole when Espinoza knew he had no horse left, and easily could have let him underneath, it's quite possible Chelokee and not Scat Daddy would be the Florida Derby Champion.  At the very worst, he would have run a close second, and except for the medium-sized suitcase of fun tickets that stunt cost me, I'm fairly certain I finally found my Derby horse today.  Despite the eye-popping accomplishments and seeming extraordinary depth of this year crop of sophomores, none had yet punched the complete ticket that has been the hallmark of the overwhelming majority of Derby champions: a horse with enough tactical speed to get position out of the gate and stay in contact with the field; a good turn of foot when called upon; and - MOST IMPORTANT of all - one who appears to be crying-out for, rather than dreading, that final 220 yards down Churchill's long stretch on Derby Day that has crushed the dreams of so many young horses.

Mind you, I said might have found my Derby horse.  I'm still keen on Great Hunter, and think No Biz absolutely towers over the whole bunch in terms of pure, raw, athletic ability.  That said, as green as he still is with full vision, it wouldn't surprise me a bit in his next out with his new blinkers if he hits the first turn full-bore and keeps going into the parking lot!

Phew, I'm getting punchy.  And why not?  I mean, if you love horses, was this a great day, or wot?

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