OCTAVE-the-RAVE

Yawl know there's no one on here I respect and like more than Lady Horseplayer, right?  This is NOT an attack on her latest.  In her world of pleasure horses, everything she wrote is 100 percent accurate and meaningful.  Unfortunately, in the business of racing, it simply does not apply, and I'm certain she'd want to know why not.

You all have watched horses being saddled, right?  How the trainer yanks on the saddle strap with both hands and with all his might to get it as tight as humanly possible, right?  You all have seen this a thousand times or more, have you not?

So how is it, do you suppose, that at least once a day ... somewhere at some racing venue ... we read where a jockey's "saddle slipped?"  How is that even possible given the way these horses are saddled?

When race horses do not feel like running -- whether in the morning for a work or the afternoon for a race -- one thing they'll do during saddling is fill their diaphragms with air and greatly expand their girth.  This is particularly true of older, seasoned veterans of the game.  (Neat little trick, don't you think?)

Well, guess what the instant cure is?  Yep, a quick knee to the stomach.  And now that you know, watch how SELDOM you'll see a saddle slip on the horse of a veteran trainer!  It only happens to rookies, and typically it only happens once.  After that, they becomes stomach kickers!

By the way, does it hurt the horse?  Compared to having a leather strap driven into his hind quarters in the same spot 10-15 times in succession at 75-90 MPH?

The reason I thought this was important to share is because you won't be reading it anytime soon, anywhere else.  The "experts" at the DRF have no bloody clue, and those who do and can come to Molina's defense have absolutely nothing whatever to gain by "enlightening the public" to the realities of the game.

He'll get buried for getting caught on camera what other trainers do in the saddling enclosure every day, but are smart enough to make sure the dreaded "red light" isn't anywhere near them!

Octave-the-Rave

Mornin'All:

Been in Ocala all week, am on little sis's VERY SLOW ‘puter, heading out for a day of fishing with the Crew, and wanted to thank everyone for their interest in the "DNCL" idea.  CLOCKER-1 thinks I'm nuts for giving-up the edge, Whitey agrees, K-Man thinks I'm from Outer Space, and Jeremy didn't even mention it.

Besides, I think Rog's idea of the AAHP (American Ass'n of Horse Players) is smokin'.  Sounds like the perfect alternative, and you bet your butt I'd pay to join with the right person(s) doing our bidding.

Knock ‘em dead over the weekend.

Rave

Postscript to Am'Cap:  If you do savers as a general rule, try the general rule of savers: 75/25!  $20 to wager:  $10 win; $1 exacta key Your Horse over 5; 5 over Your Horse.  (Better than the place bet as a general rule!)  $10 to bet: $4 win; $1 ex key Yours over 3; 3 over Yours.  With the take-out, you have to keep 70-75 percent of your wagers "live" or you'll get eaten-up.  My two cents!

I'm reading all these astonishing marketing ideas about game shows, and lottos, and reality TV shows, and I'd like to bet a dollar to a donut that NO ONE here saw even a single episode of this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Dream_Derby

For the record, my baby sister was one of the 12 contestants, and she did it all on her own, with no help from me, her brothers, nor anyone.  She lives in Ocala; saw the promo that required a 5-minute video about "why she wanted to be a contestant;" had a buddy film her at her barn; sent the thing off to Los Angeles; and wound-up on the show!  She spent 6 weeks in Los Angeles totally sequestered.  She couldn't even call home until she was eliminated, the result of her picking a filly over a colt in her ultimate Guts Match!  (DUH!!!)  Then they called her back and told her she was voted back on the show by the viewers for the final live episode to be filmed at Santa Anita.  Fifteen of us went for the finale, and spent Thursday and Friday gambling at Santa Anita. 

On Saturday, they had private accommodations in the Turf Club for family members, and unbelievable promotion not only on track, but in the local papers about the live, final race, which went off between Santa Anita's 8th and 9th races, and that the public got to bet on.  My sister had the 7th pick of the eight contestants out of the 11 horses remaining in the 17-horse stable, the winner of which got $250,000 in cash plus her choice of eight of the 17 horses, a total package valued at around $300K!  You think this was a little exciting for all of us, or wot? 

Not until two o'clock that afternoon were the selections revealed, and unbelievably, my sister picked the same filly who got her beat in the Guts Match, and the only filly in the field of eight!!!!  (I swear to God, my brothers and I were in the bar getting hammered and talking to Bob and Beverly Lewis while the race was running.  Her filly, Sharp as a Fox, went off 34-1 and ran dead last!)

Now, ready for the punch line?  Two years later, and only one of those 17 horses is still active today: Sharp as a Fox, who had won 10 races when last I saw her, and was up to the $25,000 claiming level!

The bottom line is it was a great television show on its own merit, and one I would have watched even if my sister hadn't been a contestant.  It also remains today the lowest rated in-house produced television series in the history of The Gameshow Network, and one they never repeated!

Rave

Before I list my TOP 5, I just wanted to say how much I LOVE the LOTTO idea.  For years, I've been trying to get CLOCKER-1 to move to South Florida.  With this new, national horse racing lotto, I figure within six months he'll be settled into his new digs on Palm Beach Island next door to The Donald, and down the block from his new neighbors Robbie, Calvin, Kent, Cory, Mark, Brian, Larry, Jamie, Shaun, and ... well ... you get the picture.  Still, it is a really neat idea, assuming The Humane Society doesn't go nuts over chimpanzees in silk blouses!

Besides, if I read the challenge correctly, the premise was how to improve horse racing's STANDING among the nation's other sports.  Or, rather, the Top 5 things we'd do to make the rest of the sporting world sit-up, take notice, scratch its collective balls, and start taking us seriously as a global athletic enterprise, rather than some glorified haven for gambling junkies whose drug of choice happens to be an animal instead of a pair of dice or a deck of cards.

Here's my Top 5, in no particular order:

5)  Name a Commissioner of Racing, and make him every bit as powerful as those in baseball, football, basketball, hockey, and the PGA and LPGA Tours.

4)  See #5 above.

3)  See #4 above.

2)  See #3 above.

1) Take a wild guess?

Mind you, naming a Commissioner and joining the 21^st Century of major sports' marketing and management isn't all we have to do.  But until we do THAT, everything else -- however well-intended -- is perfume on a pig.  An umbrella in a hurricane.  A trout net for a bridge jumper.  And, seriously, who among us doesn't know that?

Rave

I was perusing Godolphin's website yesterday to check my contest standings and came across a really strange photo.  Once again, with the assistance of my esteemed Associate Editor Lady Horseplayer, it's the photo currently posted at her Lady Horseplayer-2 site.  If you would, spank this closed for a minute, take a good look at that photo, then come back here.

That's a photo of Godolphin's Ramonti winning the Group 1 Premio Vittorio di Capua at San Siro, Italy, last October.  Mind you, I d'loaded the photo exactly as you see it.  I didn't alter it in the least. 

Does any one have a clue what that "circle" is about?  There wasn't a word ... not a mention of it ... in the accompanying article.  Does it appear to be something "photoshopped" after the fact, or rather part of the original photo?  And if it is part of the original photo, could it have been taken by the on-track equipment at the finish line?  And if it was, could it be standard of all finish line photo equipment in Europe?

Here's where I'm going with this.  What possible reason would there be for an isolated finish-line camera on a horse's legs if not to determine whether he crossed the finish line on his correct lead?  Can anyone think of one?  And if not, is it even remotely possible that while we can't even get the Equibase boys to put this info in our trip lines, it's so important in Europe they actually verify that information through photographic evidence? 

Is that possible?

And even if it isn't, do you suppose the boys at Equibase are gullible enough to buy that story?

Rave

First some Monday morning musings for your edification and contemplation!

One of the hallmarks of good writing is being considerate of your readers.  I often abuse it by being too damn wordy.  By far the worst and most prevalent abuse on here is basing an entire blog around an article or news story, and NOT listing the news story in the blog for the reader to access.  If you don't know how to do it, simply copy the web address in your browser, and hit "paste" somewhere in the body of your post, like this:

http://www.horseracingintfed.com/resources/2007Rankings/6_15_07_WorldLeadingHorses.asp

Jeremy thoughtfully has engineered this feature into our software.  (Now, if we can just get him to add a damn spell-checker!)  Personally, I think this list is extremely generous toward American racing.  Asiatic Boy 19^th!!  Pride and Sir Percy 33^rd!!  No DISCREET CAT anywhere in the Top 50!!  Is that an international slap-in-the-face to Godolphin and Sheikh MoMo, or wot?

Next, my buddy @ Brisnet informs me that they aren't sure yet whether they'll have PPs for the Royal Ascot Festival that begins tomorrow.  However, if they do, they'll show-up later today under the "FREE Int'l PPs" listing on the Product Page.  (How's that for s**t or go blind?  Free or none!!)

Finally, yawl have to read comment #10 on my PART II Challenge blog.  I thought we had the market cornered on "jaded" players, and along comes Pete!  Come on out of the woodwork, big guy, and get your blog on.  You definitely are our kind of character!

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Now, about the epiphany I had this morning.  Over the weekend, I got a great comment/question from Davey G., aka Lost Code, that read, in part, as follows:

"If DRF includes this, should it be for every horse in the race that failed to change leads, or just the ones in contention in the stretch?"

How astute is that, and from a self-professed rookie, no less?  It caught me completely off guard. I even went back and changed the verbiage on the draft petition CLOCKER-1 requested.  It originally read: "DNCL at the following race meets."  I changed it to: "DNCL in the stretch at the following race meets;" then changed it again to read: "DNCL in contention at the following race meets."  After my epiphany, I left the original as is. 

Get this.

A couple of our boyz were in a tournament over the weekend that included Hollywood Park.  This morning, I punched-up the Brisnet free charts on yesterday's Hollywood card to see how they had done, and noticed where the Chart guys had noted a deadheat in yesterday's 8^th race at HP.

A deadheat for LAST!

At which point I recalled how often we see this DH designation in the charts for 5^th, 6^th, 8^th, and even LAST.  Well, does that put this request of ours in proper perspective, or wot?  I mean, if they're SO CAREFUL and SO ATTENTIVE TO DETAIL in their work that they actually can pinpoint dead-heats in mid-pack, then spotting horses who fail to change leads, by comparison, is child's play, is it not?  A piece of cake!  A walk-in-the-park by comparison.

Nice work, Davey boy!

Rave

I've been sitting on this piece since The Preakness Stakes.  The 1978 Preakness Stakes!

If you believe what they say about "timing being everything," this one is a no-brainer.  It took a colt named Curlin, a Hall of Fame trainer induction, and a landmark anniversary upcoming to make it that way, but sometimes these things happen for a reason. 

Maybe that reason was PART I of this piece, although I didn't even know about the measure when I wrote it.  Nor should it be our motivation for taking-up this challenge.  Instead, our motivation should be as it always has been: to help our fellow players, and improve the game we all love.

For while it remains a frustrating fact that none of us, individually nor collectively, can do a bloody thing about the internet wagering wars, massive take-outs, self-serving product providers, nitwit rule makers, horrendous point-of-sale customer service, and the like, when it comes to the issues that affect us as everyday players, we already have proven we have the power to make a difference.

What follows is the actual, recent, real-life event that inspired this Call to Arms. 

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Last Tuesday, I got a Stable Mail alert on a veteran mare named No Llores Catita for Wednesday's card @ CD.  My notes on her last read simply "DNCL" -  my longtime designation for Did Not Change Leads.  In fact, here were her three previous running lines and trip notes as posted by Equibase:

May 18^th  -  2^nd/2^nd/2^nd/2^nd      Dueled; all out

Apr 20^th  -   1^st/1^st/4^th/8^th          2W; pace; tired

Mar 31^st  -   2^nd/3^rd/3^rd/3^rd        Steadied 1/8^th pole; faltered late

All out; tired; and faltered late!  A classic hanger, right?

Out of curiosity, I watched her two previous races, and sure enough in both, she also failed to change leads in the stretch.  Then I watched her race four back, the line to which read:

Mar 16^th  -  1 by ½  ... 1 by 1 ... 1 by 2 ... 1 by 3         Driving!

Take a wild guess?  She changed leads on a dime that day, and looked like a completely different animal.  Why it is that older, experienced horses sometimes fall into the habit of suddenly not changing leads I do not know, but it isn't all that unusual; nor, as you might expect, is it so often an indication of physical problems, especially when there are no breaks in the horse's racing lines.  Sometimes, it just happens.

Still, there are several indicators I look for next time out ... clues, if you will, that point to the horse changing leads this time ... any one or a combination of which is a "green" light.  In this case, NoLoCat had an intriguing one.  She had been ridden last out by Brian Hernandez, the same B.J. Hernandez who only recently was giving his little brother a serious tongue-lashing for not getting one of his own mounts to change leads.  Moreover, it was the first time Brian had ridden her.  Knowing what a stickler he is about getting horses "over," I surmised it caught him by surprise, and bet my money on the assumption he wouldn't let it happen twice in a row.

Cha-ching!

In fact, the ride was a gem.  NoLoCat was in mid-pack and covered-up in traffic when she straightened out in the lane, and once again failed to change leads on her own.  In heavy traffic, most riders won't even bother to "help," since the technique requires a pronounced jerk on the right rein, which naturally causes a horse to go right, with "go" being the optimum word and big unknown!  Watch Curlin in the Preakness, and you'll note he "floats" over to his right side when Albarado engages the technique, barely altering course in the process.  Some horses react less professionally, often moving-out one entire lane when changing to their right, or outside, lead.  A few have been known to wipe-out entire fields, and one or two have wound-up terrorizing the parking lot crew.

NoLoCat looked like a pinball going through the lane, bouncing off one horse and then another before Brian finally got her "over," ducked her to the wood late, got lucky, found an opening, and managed to clear in time. 

In fact, the list of jocks today dedicated to this critical aspect of race riding is a fraction of what it once was.  That Brian Hernandez, at 22, is on such a list is why I'm convinced he is going to be so much fun to watch in the years ahead.   Growing this list is one thing I think we have the power to influence, but it isn't the most important thing. 

Here's what is.

Unless you had the time and luxury to watch race replays - and how few of us do anymore? - there was no way you possibly could have known from the PP trip-lines provided by Equibase that No Llores Catita failed to change leads in each of her previous three races.  To me, there's something cosmically WRONG about that, especially when you consider what a fundamental and important aspect of the game this is. 

Far more germane to this call to arms is this: watching race replays is what the Chart guys get paid to do! 

They have to watch replays.  Every replay, of every race, every day, and sometimes multiple times.  It's how they write the race recaps in the Charts, and from whence these trip lines originate.  Assuming as we must, since Jeremy Plonk comes from this very background, that each of these individuals is more than capable of recognizing when a horse fails to change leads in the stretch, then how much trouble would it be for them simply to note "DNCL" - did not change leads - in the subject horse's trip line? 

Why is this critical to know?  Why has it been critical to know for a hundred years?  Because if they did that for us ... if they provided that simple designation ... then whenever we saw notations in the trip lines like hung, faded, weary late, tired, yielded late, faltered, gradually yielded, out-finished, needed more late, weakened late, flattened out late, gave way, no late bid, no late gain, and every other such "late" phrase to describe a horse that hangs through the lane, we would know they were describing a horse who ACTUALLY DID THOSE THINGS, as opposed to those things being the natural and unavoidable by-product of a horse that fails to change leads in the stretch, and simply lumbers home like so much heavy baggage!

The difference between a horse that changes leads and "hangs," and a horse that fails to change leads and simply staggers home, is ENORMOUS.   And yet, never in the history of PP trip lines has there been a way to determine this critical difference.  To me, the ignorance on which something this primal borders in the year 2007 with "advances" like Beyer Speed Figures, pace figures, distance lost, and the like - and for which we're being charged-out-the-ass -- is nothing short of mind-boggling.

Just how enormous is that difference; the extent to which this information will influence your entire handicapping approach; the number of "hidden" winners it will ferret-out ("hidden" as in tournament type winners!), and/or odds-on droppers you virtually can eliminate; and the sheer enjoyment it will add to the game for those with the knowledge and insight to take advantage of it; towers in value over many of the new-wave technological advances.  If you don't know, you're just going to have to trust me until you can see for yourself in everyday application how gigantic it is.

More to this call to arms, when you consider what a monumental improvement in accuracy this "DNCL" designation will make in the trip lines for us players; that it would alert riders and their agents - ALL OF WHOM read the Racing Form religiously every day - that they're riding a horse today that failed to change leads last time out; how simple it is for Equibase to work into its protocols; and that they could start tomorrow without having to invest a penny to do this for us; is there anyone who isn't as miffed as I why they steadfastly have refused for years to adopt this simple upgrade?

In my mind, there can be no debate that this too-long-overlooked piece of key handicapping information will make the game better for every horse player, and substantially better for the knowledgeable player who knows how to take advantage of this critical information.  That, folks, will be ALL of us.  Of that you can be assured if we're finally able to bring this to fruition.

And I genuinely believe we can.  We!  Us!  All of us!  I can't.  They've ignored me for years, including a piece I wrote back in June, 2000, that was published in a certain major racing quarterly whose rather well-known-to-all Editor with total control over the title, headline, and layout chose on his own to title "The Dreaded DNCL."  (See Lady Horseplayer 2's latest entry; again with my sincere thanks.  The rat in the photo is Arazi, history's second most infamous "DNCL" specialist!) 

The very first sentence in that three-page feature article read as follows:

"For years, I have been lobbying the Daily Racing Form to include the letters ‘DNCL' in its Past Performance trip lines."

I even bought an extra copy on the newsstand, cut-out the article, and Fed Ex'ed it to the DRF with a cover letter attached.  I got a "Thanks for your interest," generic, form-letter in return!  They shined me like a cheap claimer in a stakes race.

That was seven, long years ago, and still, nothing has changed.

Well, I'd like to bet they can't so easily shine all of us. At the very least, we can force the powers-that-be at Equibase/DRF to explain why they steadfastly refuse to adopt this simple efficiency into their trip-line protocols.  Frankly, I can't even fathom what such a reason might be, except that maybe it's a case of too few people over the years making this request to be taken seriously. 

You know?  Like too few people complaining about DQs to be taken seriously!

If enough of us are up to the task, I'll get the e-mail and snail-mail addresses of the decision-makers at Equibase, the DRF, and Brisnet.  Hopefully, we might even persuade our esteemed panel of judges, and some of their prominent associates, to join us in this quest. 

Whadda ya think?  Can we do this?  Give me a quick "hurrumph" if you're in ... thank you ... have a great weekend ... and knock 'em dead.

Octave-the-Rave

I have PART II ready to post, but wanted to share this with everyone first. 

I just got a call from CLOCKER-1.  It sounded like he was in the middle of a locker room celebration.  In fact, he was on a bus.  You got that?  A bus!  The noise in the background was being made by 27 jockeys from Churchill Downs, including Calvin and Robbie and the entire jock's colony except for John McKee and Colby Hernandez, who had to go to Keeneland this morning.

They're on their way to Kosair Children's Hospital to visit the kids, sign autographs, hand-out goggles and whips, and bring a little sunshine to many who will never see the real sun shine again. 

Derek and A-Rod do it in a limousine, with a few hundred reporters in tow.  Our boys are on a bus, and there isn't a camera or reporter in sight.

Stick that in their noses next time you get grief about your avocation.

Rave

I forget how subjective this medium is, and how hard it is to tell when one is being serious, or rather when writing with tongue planted firmly in cheek.  You know?  Like citing the vast expanse of NBA expertise of ESPN's Rachel Nichols!  (Who IS she sleeping with, anyway?)  Or, worse, horse racing's male equivalent from that same network, who shall remain nameless! 

For my part, I had no intentions of actually owning that rat Four Aces.  I just thought yawl might enjoy his astonishing PPs.  And, no, I did not hit a guy in the head in Nu Joisey with a can of pork n' beans.

It was Chicken Noodle Soup!

Now that that's cleared-up, the following IS NOT tongue-in-cheek.  Far from it.  Hold onto your hats, kids, because this is really exciting!

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I got a terrific e-mail late yesterday afternoon from a buddy with a reliable source on the Eclipse Award Committee.  According to my buddy, there's a motion before the Committee to create a new, permanent Eclipse Award category beginning in 2008:

The Horse Racing Blog!

After the initial excitement wore-off, my next palpable emotion was, "No Kidding!"  I mean, it's only by a few thousand times the most prevalent and practiced daily sports' medium on the planet, and where three out of every four major breaking sports' stories today are first broached.  (That's an actual statistic from Technorati.)  Horse racing certainly is no exception to the worldwide explosion in blogging.  In fact, when you think about it, has there ever been a bigger lay-down for a new Eclipse Award category than this one?

To me, the more germane question is this:  do we have the goods?  Are The Big Blog Pages worthy of consideration by the Nominating Committee for the initial award? 

Let's take a quick look at the resume, shall we?

Last year, Lady HorsePlayer introduced the controversial Horse Slaughter Act (H.R. 501), we debated it with fire, and wound-up on the winning side of the ledger. 

Even though we were overwhelmingly on the side of Barbaro for 3YO of the Year and lost, I still believe unwaveringly that history will record this slight as the worst vote, and lowest point, in Eclipse voter history. 

Those aside, clearly there were two high-water marks on the BB Pages in 2006: the Breeders' Cup bias debate, and the Nicole's Dream travesty.

In my mind, Jeremy's exclusive interview with Butch Lehr - and I'll remind all he introduced it on The BB Pages under his blogging banner "Judge JP" - deserved a nomination on its own merit last year either in the News/Commentary category, or the Feature/Enterprise Writing category.  Playing the devil's advocate and donning my voter's hat, I suspect the nominating Committee may have had reservations about the author's objectivity, given his extremely well-documented position long before the interview vehemently opposing any semblance of a rail bias.  Still, what hurt the most, I believe, is that even now two out of every three racing fans, and presumably the same ratio of Committee members, still disagree with his position, and still believe there was, in fact, a pronounced bias on Breeders' Cup day, despite his insightful and superbly detailed accounting of Lehr and Crew's preparation of the racing surface.

Indeed, perception is 90 percent of reality, and horse racing is not immune! 

Still, Jeremy got the only exclusive story directly from the horse's mouth, whereas everyone else in the entire industry crapped his Sans-a-Belts.  That in itself, given the magnitude of the story, in my opinion deserved nomination.  

Shortly before the BC controversy in October, 2006, I wrote the following verbatim passage in a blog: "With only two months remaining in the year, clearly the #1 Topic of Debate on here for 2006 has been ‘Disqualifications.' Even before the Nicole's Dream fiasco, there was plenty of discontent with the process expressed here on The Big Blog Pages." 

Unless and until we hear different, I believe we have every right to assume that the stink we raised all last year v. DQs; the extent to which we proved Nicole's Dream's DQ a total travesty; the way it resonated throughout the game; and the overwhelming number of us who expressed STRONG displeasure with the way DQs were being handled everywhere; all were major contributing factors to the positive changes we've seen in DQ protocols in 2007.

In fact, positive is an understatement.  Everything about DQs has improved, from the noticeable decline in Steward's Inquiries, jock's claims, and actual horses DQ'ed nationwide, to the virtual disappearance from the game of the inordinate delays those DQs used to cause, and that had become common-place.   Does anyone recall this issue being raised at the DRF formblog?  Bloodhorse?  Thoroughbred Times?  NYRA blogs?  Anywhere but here?  As I've stated: I don't believe in coincidence.  I believe in cause and effect.  Something got the game's attention; the game responded; and today it is better for it.

Still, even though the repercussions of what we accomplished last year impacted the game in calendar year 2007, these were all 2006 blogs.  The Committee may not even consider them, and look instead only at 2007 content v. the nominations.  And even if they do take them into account, no doubt ... no doubt ... they'll be musing aloud, "OK ... fine ... they had a great 2006.  Now, what have they done lately?  What did they do in 2007 to prove that 2006 wasn't a fluke?" 

Know what?  They'd be right to ask!  That's what I'd ask, wouldn't you?

So, what have we done?  I mean, what have we done different?  What have we done different from every other horse racing blog that handicaps, forecasts, analyzes results, and occasionally pisses and moans about the nitwits who run the game?

Not much that I can tell. 

Ah, but it's only June.  Plus, you know what your Daddy always told you: "It ain't how you start that counts, it's how you finish!"

PART II ... the finish ... tomorrow!

Octave-the-Rave

Fellow Mavens:

I'm seriously looking to claim a horse today whose PPs -- to me anyway -- appear to be going in the right direction.  I'm thinking this horse might be sitting on a big race.  First and foremost, I'd like your opinion, but if anyone is interested in taking a piece, give me a jingle:

http://community.drf.com/formblog/files/four_acres.PDF

Rave 

I just hung-up with my source at Brisnet, who has been there forever; is very high up on the information food chain; did not wish to be identified by name; but had no problem going on the record.  Here's was the gist of that conversation.

For starters, he and the entire staff and crew at Brisnet learned of the acquisition only hours before it went public, via a company-wide, speaker-phone address by Churchill Downs officials.  According to my source, the call was "extremely positive and uplifting."  CD officials assured the staff that there would be no changes whatsoever either in management or rank and file; and little or no involvement by CD officials in the day-to-day operations of the company.  In fact, when it was announced that Happy Broadbent would continue in his current position, the announcement was met with wild applause.  CD made it perfectly clear that they were purchasing Brisnet and Brisbet because of its exceptional reputation for customer service, and exemplary way of doing business.  As far as my source is concerned, he is convinced that as it relates to current Brisnet and Brisbet customers, "the acquisition will be 100 percent transparent."

The one thing I was most concerned about was the "free" PP program for Brisbet customers.  Some of my buds d'load as many as four to five cards a day.  If that program suddenly ended, to them it would represent a $400-$450 a month hit.  My source informed me that exact question was asked point blank of CD officials during the question/answer period, and they were adamant that it not only wouldn't change, but in fact was one of the key motivators in the acquisition, given the "extraordinary loyalty factor the hard numbers point-out among Brisbet on-line customers."

On a personal note, I have huge trepidation v. this announcement.  However, my source also is a friend.  There's no way he'd say any of these things if he wasn't reasonably convinced of their veracity.  In other words, rather than spew "the company line," he simply would say "no comment."  The extent to which they play-out as advertised I suspect we'll all know soon enough.

Octave-the-Rave

Disclaimer:  Just in case yawl think what follows is more shameless sucking-up to the Judges, perhaps this would be a good time to mention that I'm currently wanted on assault charges in the state of Nu Joisey.  The one time I was there I was in the "10 or Fewer" line at Kroger's, a guy in front of me had like 40 items in his shopping cart, I mentioned something to him about it, he screamed at me to go "F**K MYSELF," and I dropped him like a rock from 10 paces with a can of Bush's Baked Beans.

The economy size!  (And, gee, what a surprise that is, right?)

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Anyway, I was just over on the NYRA blogs looking to see if any of the boyz had posted a Belmont recap, and found only one, from the inimitable Mr. Shandler.  You'll recall we ragged him unmercifully for being so negative after the greatest Preakness in 132 years, right?  Well, if his Belmont recap was any more syrupy-sweet it would need a diabetic warning!  That said, check-out this little ditty from Mr. Shandler:

"And finally, I know it's not in good taste to gloat, but I can't resist. As many of you know, I did in fact nail the tri in the Belmont."

I know only heathens gloat, but ... ! 

But, my butt!  In fact, you know who gloats, folks?  You know who crows?  The ones who go one-for-the-decade!  And you know I'm right because your common sense tells you that for the ones who do it routinely, it becomes ho-hum.

Back to the K-Man.  While there, I decided to reread his pre-Belmont post to see how he had done.  Now, I'm on record as touting him as towering over the other lads there on acumen and IQ, right?  (The "other lads" not being Dean the Dream and His Honor 1.)  Let's just say he did better than most.  Anytime you can hit an 8-1 exacta on a 3-horse box, you did alright in my book.  I just thought I'd let him know as much in a brief comment, only when I clicked on the "comment" box, I got the following prompt:

"Excuse me, but you're confusing me with someone who actually gives a s**t about your opinion!"

Now, izzat smart enough for you, or wot?

Rave

I've gotten a "redboarding" jab and a couple of interesting e-mails v. my observation that Hard Spun is better suited to shorter distances, one that agreed, and the other that said I was off my rocker.  Both thought I was implying by the Shaq & Cheryl analogy that Hard Spun was a "small" horse!  I was not.  I simply was trying to make a point about physiology versus breeding.

And since this is, and has been for a very long time, a HUGE bone-of-contention for me in the sport, I briefly want to explain my thoughts.

As you all know, size is only one aspect of physiology, and not nearly the most important v. this debate on Hard Spun.  The most important by a landslide aspect of a horse's physiology in determining the distances for which he is best suited is his endurance level, defined in medical terms as, "the ability of animals to exert themselves through aerobic or anaerobic exercise for relatively long periods of time."  Part of this endurance level determination in a race horse is his heart size and lung capacity, both of which, as we know, can vary greatly from animal to animal.  Rather than get too technical, here are three examples, from recent to lore, to illustrate just how critical is this point.

Have you seen the sprinter Fabulous Strike?   He's HUGE!  Sixteen hands plus, and weighing probably 1,200  pounds.  Yet, he's a pure sprinter, despite the fact that he's by Smart Strike, the same sire as Curlin, for whom the 1.5 miles was no problem.

Conversely, Google a photo of Concern, and you'll likely be shocked. Concern was by Chef-de-race sire Broad Brush, who won four times at a mile and a quarter, despite the fact that he was by Ack Ack, America's Champion Sprinter in 1971, and one of the fastest horses that ever lived.  Concern was a midget, and skin and bones, to boot, who looked less like a "distance" horse than any in recent memory.  Plus, he was slow.  A slug!  Yet no horse in my lifetime ever was able to maintain his optimum speed for longer periods than Concern.  When all the rest were gagging, he was still running his first quarter times!

Doubtless the perfect combination of size and endurance in our lifetimes was the legendary Secretariat.  However, not until 15 years after his career ended was the secret to his extraordinary ability to run really fast, for really long periods, revealed: the size of his heart.  As you know, on autopsy it was determined that Secretariat's heart was twice the size of that of the normal race horse, estimated by Dr. Thomas Swerczek, the veterinarian who performed the necropsy, at a staggering 22 pounds.  Here is the actual verbiage from Dr. Swerczek's report:

"Certainly, after performing autopsies on several thousand thoroughbred horses, including mares and stallions, no other horse came close to Secretariat's heart size. The second largest heart I found was the heart of Sham, who actually broke the Kentucky Derby record, but still lost to Secretariat. Sham's heart weighed 19 pounds.  The average race horse's heart weighs between 10 and 12 pounds!"

To me, the tip-off with a horse like Hard Spun is his other-worldly, raw, natural speed.  When you have a horse THAT fast, you're in the business of racing horses as a profession, and your IQ is above 60, should not a little bell go off in your head that asks, "Gee, let's see, who in recent history was THE LAST HORSE as fast as my horse who was able to carry that speed around two turns?"

My 60+ IQ tells me the answer to that query is Spectacular Bid in 1979, twenty-seven years ago!  Can anyone name a horse since 1979 with blindingly fast sprinter's speed who was able to carry that speed beyond a mile, and proved himself a classic, distance champion?  Ghostzapper?  Agreed, but remember, GZ's first seven races were sprints, and 8 of his total 11 career starts were at one turn.  In fact, he didn't even attempt 2-turns until August of his 4YO year. 

Now, how many other-worldly fast horses can we all name during the past 27 years whose owners/trainers kept trying to prove they could carry that extraordinary natural speed around two turns, and flat-out ruined them in the process?  What will make it even more devastating should it happen to Hard Spun is his phenomenal, off-the-charts turf breeding.  Assuming he inherits the "foot" v. his lineage, can you imagine in your mind a faster horse on the planet right now going a mile on the turf than Hard Spun? 

All I'm saying v. this debate is this:

1)  It still isn't too late for Hard Spun.  Rather than pointing him to the Breeders' Cup Classic and more futility and frustration, and where he'll face not only Curlin and Street Sense but likely Invasor and others; why not give him his shot on the turf?  Or point him to the new $1M, 1-turn Mile Event, where he'll surely be one of the favorites?  Or even the $2M BC Sprint, which appears to be notoriously weak this year?

2) If more trainers were aware of the history, they would understand that on those exceedingly rare occasions when they've been blessed with a horse of generationally-abnormal foot speed ... a freak ... a friggen' lightning bolt ... that the overwhelming historical eviidence dictates that they, and their horse, would be far better served embracing, nurturing, and exploiting that God given speed, rather than getting greedy and stupid and eventually ruining that gift, as so many owners and trainers have done in recent years.

Octave-the-Rave

Well, historically speaking, anyway.  Still, I don't get it.  When I read Scott Blasi's quote in the DRF about wanting Curlin "on the bit a little earlier this time," I thought it was just conjecture to stir-up the Hard Spun camp.  Sure enough, as JP predicted, Curlin even was ahead of the filly early, despite the fact that R2R had never been more than three lengths behind the leader in a 2-turn race in her career.  In my opinion, the race was lost in that critical eighth-to-quarter mile sustained run entering the far turn that Curlin ran on the bit and climbing, with nowhere to go, and fighting Robbie every step of the way, while the filly was parked outside, perfectly relaxed, and conserving her energy.  And as good as R2R is -- and she may be the best filly ... dare I say it ... since Go for Wand -- in this case, I believe after waiting as long as he did, and enduring all the frustrations he has endured, the 2007 Belmont Stakes was won as much by trainer Todd Pletcher and his superb tactics, as they were by his extraordinary filly.

Now ... didja notice:

What your daddy always told you?  About "following the class?"  There were two colts not in the Belmont Stakes on the card today who ran in the Kentucky Derby, Teufleserg and Stormello, and they almost cold-cocked the exacta in the Woody Stevens, w/T'berg a huge overlay @ $18.40.  There was one filly not in the Belmont Stakes on the card who ran in the Kentucky Oaks, Cotton Blossom, and she whacked ‘em in the Acorn @ $14.20!

ABC-TV again?  And how they completely ignored the two races leading-up to the Belmont Stakes?  Seriously, are they stupid, or is it that they just don't give a s**t?  They own ESPN.  Surely they had to know a few million viewers spent the day at home so they could enjoy the entire card on TV.  It's just so bush league.  So completely indefensible.

How often during Derby Week CLOCKER-1 pointed-out in his observations re R2R's company-works with Circular Quay that the filly REFUSED to let CQ pass her?  Even in the gallop-outs?  How much of a factor today in the outcome did that series of works with CQ play, do you suppose?  Nice call, Willie ... 

What a complete nutcase Hard Spun is?  If you haven't watched the replay, check-out his journey from the gate to the first turn.  It looks like a purse snatcher on crack running through a crowded mall with the cops chasing him!  I pray he doesn't wind-up like Keyed Entry, or Sinister Minister, or Henny Hughes, or Discreet Cat, or Smoke Glacken, or the dozen or so other-worldly speed-freaks of our generation who were demoralized and disemboweled by a 2-turn experiment for which their physiology NEVER was intended.  I mean, if Shaquille O'Neal and Cheryl Miller had a dwarf, would you still try to make an NBA center out of him?  Breeding will never overcome physiology.  It's something Sir Vincent O'Brien and his European training peers learned a half-century ago, and why it's so common-place in Europe to see horses for Sir Michael Stoute, Aiden O'Brien, and others with 10-furlong pedigrees who are strict, dedicated milers.  Clearly, it's something we still don't get over here.

How right JP is about the current jockey colony?  And how important "changing leads" is to a horse's overall performance?  Check-out the replay of today's 4^th race from Belmont Park, and the favorite, #9 Smoky Chimney.  The Smoky one ran one of the most amazing races I've ever seen last out, going 1:02.4 for 5.5F despite NOT changing leads.  He was ridden that day by Cornelio Velasquez, as he was today.  Going the extra half-furlong on Belmont day, you could naturally assume that Velasquez would get him over this time, would you not?  No effort!  No clue!  He just let Smoky stagger thru the lane, when he was TONS the best.  And this guy is one of the Top 10 riders in the sport today?  JP is soooooooooooo right.  Fifteen years ago and three-quarters of the game's current riding colony couldn't have gotten enough mounts to survive. And THAT, folks, is no exaggeration.

How lucky we all are as horse players to be living at the same time as Tom Durkin?  What we heard today was completely unscripted, unrehearsed, and unpracticed.  Just Durkin being Durkin.  And when it was over, he barely could get the words "photo-finish" out of his vocal chords, so juiced were they still, and so genuine was his rapture.  There has never been another remotely as good, nor will there likely ever be again.  I just pray we have a few years yet to treasure his incomparable artistry.

How Dean Beyer can stop a run-away freight train going downhill?  "Curlin Proves to be Extraordinary" wrote the Dean this week!  This, I'll remind you, just a few weeks after guaranteeing the world that Curlin wouldn't finish in the TOP 10 in the Kentucky Derby!  Yeah ... well ...extraordinary though Curlin might be, it takes a Secretarbaro or a Barbatariat these days to overcome the aircraft carrier-sized leg anchor that is Dean Beyer.  Yawl thought the Q-Man was exaggerating?  He is the absolute worst.  We should have known!

That the Pick 6 with the filly paid $417,000, and apparently three people had it?  In retrospect, the only horse that was hard to come-up with was the first winner, Will He Shine.  (Doncha love how simple it all becomes in retrospect?  Doink!)

How much money there is to be made in this game on certain days of the year strictly off the bozos in California?  I thought Lava Man in the BC last year was the worst underlay I had ever seen, but Tiago @ 5-1?  Excuse me?  Do you know how much money was bet to win on Tiago?  Over a million dollars!  Where do you think 80 percent of that money came from?  And Lord only knows how much of the $20M total exacta/trifecta pool had him on top.  On top!  Giacomo, Jr.!  Yes sir, you gotta love those Left Coasters.

What a really, really, really good thing it is we all have real jobs?  And that we don't have to do this for a living? 

Octave-the-Rave

For those who don't know, in order to work a horse on the turf course in most racing jurisdictions, the owner/trainer must first nominate the horse for a Stakes race, which is why in lower level condition allowance races, you rarely see horses with turf works; and just about never in MSW events.  (Note: This does not apply to private training centers like Peyson Park, Palm Beach Downs, Fair Hill, etc.)

That said, by the time most horses reach the N2X level, they already have some established form on turf.  Not so at the entry level condition.  Often the fields are made-up entirely of young horses trying the weeds for the first time, and it becomes pretty much an educated guessing game v. breeding, trainer angles, and the like. 

Every so often, a horse in an entry level condition turf race will show a recent work on the subject track's turf course.  It even happens on extremely rare occasion at the MSW level.  What this means is that his connections thought enough of his potential to nominate him for a Stakes race at the subject track.  It's a pretty square angle, and worth noting, especially since in these type races, we have so little else to go on anyway.

Rave

Until recently, I had no idea how many dedicated horizontal players we had on the BB Pages.  For what it's worth, I got five Stable Mail alerts for the Belmont card, all tape follows v. last out trouble, a couple of which the Chart boyz whiffed on completely.  Since today's card arguably is the third best of the entire year v. horizontal play; and since ya caint watch 'em all; any surprises you folks gleaned in your replay homework I'm sure would be greatly appreciated.

Smoky Chimney (4th); Flow Chart (5th); Cotton Blossom (9th); Steppenwolfer (10th); Cosmonaut (10th); Quiet Rendition (12th).

Break-a-leg!

Rave

A quick word about Jon Forbes' (AirForbes1) beautifully crafted piece on "keeping 3YO's in training," and the literally dozens of others like it that continue to pop-up here, at the DRF, Thoroughbred Times, Bloodhorse, and elsewhere in print, and throughout cyberspace. 

Here's the word: CROCK!

The clear inference of these articles is that the #1 reason why our 3YO Champions do not compete in their 4YO year is because they are whisked-off to the breeding shed.  Well, that's just plain horses**t.  Wrong.  Factually inaccurate. 

How wrong?  What if I told you that only one 3YO Champion in the past 15 years, Bernardini - and he didn't deserve the honor anyway - made it all the way to the Breeders' Cup in November of his 3YO year, and then failed to compete in his 4YO year because his owners caved-in to the lure of the American breeding industry? 

Would that make it wrong enough for you?

In 2005, Afleet Alex was injured prepping for the BC Classic, and forced into retirement.  However, another late-bloomer named Roses in May had eased the pain of that loss and was setting the game on fire until he was abruptly snapped-up and whisked-off to Japan. 

In 2004, Smarty Jones also never made it as far as the BC Classic, instead retiring in August of that year, the result of chronic bruising of his ankle bones.  In 2003, Funny Cide competed in his 4YO year.  War Emblem (2002) also was whisked-off to Japan before the BC Classic.  Point Given (2001) also never made it as far as the BC Classic, retiring after his Travers victory with a severe tendon injury.  However, runner-up Street Cry raced in his 4YO year. 

Tiznow (2000) raced well beyond his 4YO campaign, as did runner-up Captain Steve.  Charismatic (1999) suffered a career-ending injury in The Belmont Stakes of his 3YO year.  Real Quiet (1998) not only raced as a 4YO, so did his conqueror, Victory Gallop.  Silver Charm, 1997's 3YO Champion, had a tremendous 4YO campaign.  Skip Away (1996) raced well beyond the age of four.  Thunder Gulch (1995) and Holy Bull (1994) both were injured during very active 4YO campaigns, and retired to stud.  Prairie Bayou (1993) was fatally injured in the Belmont Stakes. 

In 1992, 3YO Champion A.P. Indy, indeed, was retired to American stud in his three-year-old year following his victory in the Breeders' Cup Classic, making him the last American 3YO Champion prior to Bernardini to be retired to stud in his 3YO year!

Now, does that pretty much spell CROCK v. this myth about the breeding shed? 

In fact, beyond the #1 by-a-landslide reason - injury and death - for why our 3YO Champions of the past 15 years have not raced at four, the next most prevalent reason is because they've been pilfered from the continent by the Japanese, never to be seen nor heard from again.  Pretty much the same effect for American racing as if they had suffered a fatal injury, wouldn't you agree?

Perhaps this would be a good time to mention the reason why the vast majority of healthy 3YO Champions continue to race these days into their 4YO campaigns.  Or rather, the SIX MILLION reasons.  It's called the Dubai World Cup.  

In fact, the 3YO year no longer officially ends with the Breeders' Cup Classic in November.  It ends the last week of March of the following year with the Dubai World Cup -- at $3.6M for the winner already the world's richest race -- and openly reported by Sheikh MoMo on Godolphin.com to be going to $10M.  

That's SIX MILLION DOLLARS to the winner of a single horse race! 

To further illustrate this point, every healthy-at-the-time American 3YO Champion has competed in the World Cup since its inception except Bernardini and Tiznow.  Bernardini is owned by Sheikh MoMo, host of the event who already had the Big Dog of the Day,  Discreet Rat, and had no incentive whatever to run against himself.  Tiznow was being pointed to the event, but was withdrawn late due to travel problems.  And our newly-turned 4YOs have done extremely well, including winners Street Cry (2002), Captain Steve (2001), and Silver Charm (1998).  And unless the Japanese get a hold of Curlin, you can bet your ass he'll be in Dubai come March, 2008. 

But wait.  Remind me again who bought Street Sense and Hard Spun? Sheikh MoMo?  Host of the Dubai World Racing Festival?  Everyone naturally assumes he bought these two, and Epsom Darby Champion and certified monster Authorize (sic), so they could be whisked away to the breeding shed.  He bought them, first and foremost, to make sure the embarrassment he endured worldwide last year in Dubai -- ZERO FOR 15 WITHOUT HITTING THE BOARD -- doesn't happen again in 2008.  And, of course, the breeding rights, just not nearly as soon as everyone is assuming.

Here's the deal.  Until we have a Commissioner of Racing with the balls and common sense to change the Triple Crown schedule to a 7-week event instead of five, we will continue to lose our 3YO Champions to fatigue-related injury and death.  That's a sad commentary on our priorities, and as well an absolute given that it will continue to rip the guts out of the 3YO ranks.  As well, I have no doubt the right Commissioner of Racing immediately will impose a MASSIVE EXPORT TAX on the Japanese, as other industries have done for decades, as a deterrent to pilfering our breeding stock, and that will take care of reason #2.  But even beyond these pie-in-the-sky pipe dreams, there seems to me a perfectly doable way to make it extremely difficult for anyone to retire a champion three-year-old to stud even after the World Cup, which currently is more the norm. 

And that, folks, simply is by making the Breeder's Cup Classic a $10M race!

Sound impossible?  C'mon, it only money?  And only $10M, at that!  That's chump change today in corporate America.  Billy G. spends more than that on his Christmas party!  Warren B. just gave away 3,000 times that amount. 

Gave it afriggenway! 

Think about it, though.  The World Cup is in very late March, right?  By the time participants clear quarantine and arrive back home, it's already well into April.  Breeding season is over.  They're sent to the farm anyway.  Imagine the temptation to keep them in training if just six months away, there was another SIX MILLION dollar 1^st prize carrot dangling in their greedy faces?  Would that make the insurance premiums palatable?  And, of course, they'd have to have a tune-up following their rest, and before the CUP, right?  Which means we'd all get to see our 3YO champions race a minimum of three times as 4YOs! 

I could live with that, couldn't you?  And all for simply coming-up with a stinking six mil! 

Octave-the-Rave

For anyone who might be curious, here's is the link for the chatroom transcript with Mr. Veitch:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/talkinhorses/JV060707.asp

To Mr. Veitch's credit, he did not back down from the controversy.  In fact, of all the questions I and others submitted on Alydar's failure to change leads, the two he chose to address directly were those submitted by Roger (Caesar's Ghost) and Davey (Lost Code), and I sincerely thank them both. 

I wish I could tell you after waiting 30 years that I think Alydar's performance is any less an enigma, or that Mr. Veitch bears any less blame for this travesty.  I do not.  To the contrary, I now know without a shard of doubt he bears ALL the blame for one of the great travesties in racing, and I know from his own lips.  Only, it wasn't the same mystery I've been thinking it was all these years.

All along, I've been thinking Mr. Vietch wasn't aware that Alydar was failing to change leads throughout the 1978 Triple Crown series.  As it turns out, it wouldn't have mattered one way or the other.   By his own stunning ... astonishing ... almost inconceivable admission, he didn't think then, nor does he believe today, that it was such a big deal one way or the other!  I quote Mr. Veitch:

"It did put Alydar at a little bit of a disadvantage!"

A little bit of a disadvantage!!!!

Folks, I feel confident that if you asked any competent trainer what influence "changing leads" had on a horse's overall performance, the answers would range from "huge" at the very lowest end of the spectrum, to "all the difference in the world" at the top.

For a member of racing's Hall of Fame to think it so trivial as to characterize it a "slight disadvantage" is truly jaw-dropping.  For that same trainer to have had in his charge one of the great equine athletes of our generation is every bit the travesty I've thought it to be all these years.

Octave-the-Rave

OVERVIEW:

With all the last minute activity pouring in and out of the entry box for this Saturday's Belmont Stakes, the one constant is that Street Sense is the horse no one wanted to face.  Curlin, it seems, scares no one, including a natural gelding!  Speaking of whom, if this race ever set-up better for a filly to win, I can't remember one, and R2R might be the best to come along in decades.  Having said that and despite today's press releases, I don't believe this was as much Todd Pletcher's decision as it was Michael Tabor's.  I suspect Mr. Tabor's vision when Street Sense defected was hitting the board here (G1 black-type males), with the eventual goal of winning the Breeders' Cup Distaff powdered by Scented Stay-Free Maxi Pads (that was for you, AmCap!), before selling her in foal to Storm Cat or Street Cry @ the Keeneland April, 2008 Horses of All Ages sale for $12.5 million, give or take a few quid.   Regardless, who of sound mind wants to second-guess Michael Tabor?

CURLIN

On paper, he appears vulnerable.  The rigors of three Gr. 1's in a span of five weeks for any normal horse who only broke his maiden five months ago speak for themselves.  I just don't think this horse is remotely normal!  For starters, he's held his flesh remarkably well, and looks superb.  But more telling, it's impossible for me to envision a trip worse than his Derby nightmare, nor a set of circumstances more calamitous than those he encountered in the Preakness, yet was special enough to overcome and win.  The one thing no one apparently has taken into account is what might happen should everything fall into his lap, and he gets the dream trip.  "Curlin by 10.  Curlin by 14.  Curlin's moving like a tremendous machine!"

RAGS TO RICHES

Dream set-up!  Third would accomplish Tabor's objective of Gr. 1 male black-type.  Second makes her the highest placed filly in the Belmont Stakes in 100+ years.  And how much easier is it to win when 2nd is the target?  I'll be very surprised if she doesn't have the lead at the 1/4 pole.  After that, it's simply a matter of whether Curlin fires.

WHOGIVESASHEYIT

Yet another late entry into the starting box, this 3YO Mississippi-bred by Whogivesaflyingphuque (pronounced fu-quay) by the Louisiana-bred mare Wherey'atdawlin' comes off a smashing 12-length romp this past Memorial Day in the Four Cartons of Marlboro Edwin W. Edwards Almost Memorial Steeplechase over  4.5 Canefields at Angola State Prison and Racino.  Whether he can convert his form from Angola's all-weather crushed crawfish shell racing surface to dirt is the big question mark, assuming anyone actually gives a sheyit!
 

VALUE PLAYS :

WHADDA YA JOKIN' WITH THAT?

Neither Slew's Tizzy nor Hard Spun strike me as the kind with a fondness for being told what to do, never mind with 100,000 screaming drunks likely throwing beer cans at ‘em.  That said, can you feel like a bigger idiot in this game than shining the controlling speed in a marathon event - either turf or dirt - then watching him loaf around the track at double digit odds?  Having trouble recalling how that feels?  Remember a couple of years back when you left Intercontinental off the first leg of your BC Pick 6 ticket?  (Notice I said, "your Pick 6!")  Small field notwithstanding, I expect the pace to be reasonable, with the filly sitting in the garden, Curlin closer than normal, and the rest simply waiting to pick-up the scraps.

WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100 Bankroll)

Disclaimer:  The only bets I've made in my life without actually seeing the horses on track are Oaks/Derby doubles.  This almost certainly will change, depending on how they look, particularly warming-up.

First Wager:  $5 exacta box SLEW'S TIZZY and HARD SPUN  ($10)

Second Wager:  $10 Win SLEW'S TIZZY  ($10)

Third Wager:  $10 exacta RAGS TO RICHES over CURLIN ($10)

Fourth Wager:  $4 trifecta key CURLIN with C.P RAT, WILDRAT, and TIAGO over RAGS TO RICHES  ($12)

Fifth Wager:  $6 trifecta key CURLIN with RAGS TO RICHES over C.P RAT, WILDRAT, and TIAGO  ($18)

Sixth Wager:  $40 straight exacta CURLIN over RAGS TO RICHES  ($40)

Octave-the-Rave

"It must be stated right off the bat that Street Sense is an enigma, in that he is unlike any horse seen in quite a while. He is remarkably consistent in the way he mows down horses in spectacular fashion, and he rides the rail like the Orient Express. It's what happens after he turns into the stretch that makes him so perplexing. Is he going to lose focus and relax once he gets in front or is he going to blow his field away?  Here is a horse who wins the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and Kentucky Derby drawing away, yet blows the Preakness, Lane's End Breeders' Futurity and Blue Grass Stakes.  Can anyone recall a horse with his running style - coming from far back with a devastating run - losing three grade I stakes by getting caught each time?"

Steve Haskin  -  Bloodhorse Magazine - June, 2007

***************************************************

Recently, one of our bloggers came to Mr. Haskin's defense as one of racing's more exceptional reporters.  While I, too, enjoy much of what he writes, I find Mr. Haskin afflicted with the same condescending and redoubtable lack of respect for his readers that so often characterizes the reporting of Dean Beyer, Alan Shuback, and others at the DRF.  The bolded and underscored above is a perfect example of that affliction.

Surely you would think Mr. Haskin would be absolutely certain of his facts prior to writing such a passage?  Wouldn't you be absolutely certain merely as a blogger?  Moreover, isn't "accuracy" the overriding priority of any journalist, regardless of his field of endeavor?  And failing this unflinching devotion to accuracy, even once, is not a journalist's credibility forever suspect thereafter?

In fact, if you watch a replay of the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity using a stop watch, what you'll discover is that Street Sense has a clear lead (ONE LENGTH or more clear of the field) for exactly 3.8 seconds, almost entirely on the turn!  No sooner had Street Sense straightened out than Great Hunter was at his flank and motoring past.  The idea that Street Sense "blew the race" is preposterous. He was beaten by a better horse that day.  More to the point, the idea that he "blew the race because he lost focus and relaxed" is at best idiotic, and at worst completely contrived so as to conveniently fit Mr. Haskin's premise.  In either case, it shows a despicable lack of respect for his readers.  It clearly infers either that we're too lazy to go back and watch the tape, or too stupid to know any better once we have.

As bad as that is, lumping-in the Bluegrass Stakes in this premise is unforgivable.  Without even going to the tape, does anyone remember Street Sense EVER having the lead in the Bluegrass Stakes?  Well, he did.  For TEN ONE HUNDRETHS OF A SECOND!  In fact, I couldn't even click the stop-watch twice in what little time Street Sense had the lead before Dominican "caught" him. I'm "guestimating" the time.  It could have been five one hundredths!  Whatever it was, the inference that a horse could "lose focus and relax" in the amount of time it takes to blink your eyes twice is just moronic. 

Only, Mr. Haskin is no moron.  To the contrary, he's an extremely bright man with as wide-ranging a knowledge of the game as anyone who covers it.  So is Dean Beyer.  So is Alan Shuback.  Unfortunately, all three - and others like them who routinely cover this sport - have some perverse misconception that unless they're being provocative, nobody will read them. 

You know?  The old "controversy sells" adage?

And, of course, they're right.  It does.  What better proof need anyone of that adage than right here on the Big Blog Pages.  We LOVE controversial issues.  They're the lifeblood of these pages.  But do you see any of us making-up stuff, or pulling completely contrived premises out of our asses, purely for the sake of being "provocative?"  We may, on occasion, pose some far-flung theories, or speculate on an issue beyond the bounds of factual reality.

That isn't what Mr. Haskin does here.  He bought into the myth that Street Sense is the kind of horse who "pulls himself up on the lead," then contrived some total nonsense v. his past performances to reinforce his premise, and proffered it as fact.  Dean Beyer, Mr. Shuback, and others do it all the time, and I'm sick of it.  We ALL should be sick of it.

This stuff never used to happen.  Today, it happens everywhere.  Routinely.  What I don't get is the regularity with which this garbage finds its way past these people's Editors, and into print.  An Editor's ONLY job is to preserve and protect his employer's credibility.  The only conclusion one can draw from the proliferation of such tripe is that today's fraternity of racing Editors has no more respect for its readers ... for US ... than its reporters.

That, folks, is less an unacceptable insult to our intelligence than it is a despicable affront to the entire sport of horse racing.

Octave-the-Rave

Holy Moly, I can't believe it!  Someone ... a viewer of these BB Pages ... sent me a heads-up about Hall of Fame inductee John Veitch that I never would have known about otherwise. 

Whoever that is, THANK YOU!

Get this.  On Thursday, June 7th, Mr. Vietch will be in the "chat-room" @ Bloodhorse.com.  The pre-event pub reads, "Mr. Veitch will be answering questions about Alydar ..."  The questions must be submitted in advance.  Here's the link for doing just that:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/talkinhorses/JV060707.asp

Here's the one I submitted:  "Thank you for allowing me to ask Mr. Vietch a question that, to my knowledge, has never been posed in 30 years, namely: How does he explain the fact that after Alydar failed to change leads in the stretch in the Kentucky Derby, and failed to change leads yet again in the Preakness -- and with three weeks to prepare to make sure it didn't happen again --astonishingly, Alydar once again failed to change leads in the Belmont Stakes?  Thank you."

Clearly, this is a question Mr. Veitch WILL NOT want to answer.  If it is the ONLY such question in this vein, it will be easy for the Chat-room Moderator to ignore.  However, if Mr. Veitch receives SEVERAL on this subject, it seems far more likely he will have to address it.  And, folks, my penchant for nuclear hyperbole notwithstanding, even I cannot exaggerate to you the extent to which this has knawed at me for 30 years!  Please, take a minute, and help me out here. 

Thank you ... sincerely!

Rave

First, a simple word game.  Pick the word/word phrase in the following list that does not belong:

1)  unity ... harmony ... working together ... horse racing?

2)  leadership ... control ... organization ... horse racing?

3)  experimentation ... change ... progress ... horse racing?

4)  megalomaniacs ... sociopaths ... tyrants ... nitwits ... horse racing?

Note:  #4 is a trick question!

*****************************************************************

I got a wonderful e-mail from a fellow "hedger" about my St. Anthony comment.  I wasn't joking.  My poor Mom kept the dude in new sandals for the better part of two decades, so often did he deliver.  Does it work?  If you have to ask, see #4 above.  As ye sow.  Whatcha put down, come back around.  Karma.  However you term it, it's a lay-down.  A no-brainer.  Give $20, you get $40.  Steal $20, it costs you $40.  Help a guy broken-down on the side of the road, and when you break down, help comes in minutes.  Fail, and you'll be standing on the side of the road with your thumb up your ass cursing your "bad luck!"  And no, it has nothing to do with religion, nor far Eastern philosophy, nor any such meta-physical mumbo jumbo. 

It's simple business.  Chapter 1.  Insurance!   Life's insurance policy! And cosmically lost, it seems to me, on the sport of horse racing. 

What other possible explanation can there be?

Consider this.  San Antonio Spurs vs. Cleveland Cavaliers!  Ottawa Senators vs. Anaheim Ducks!  Are you yawning yet?  Federer vs. Nadal ... again!  The Yankees 13.5 games behind, and awful.  The Cubs 7.5 games behind, losers of six in a row, and dreadful.  Don't nod on me.  There's more.  A steroid-addled, self-absorbed, smart-mouthed slug who for years has been walking to 1^st base on infield grounders (and isn't that a lovely example for the youth of America, Barry, YFAH) who's about to break sport's most hallowed record, and nobody gives a s**t!   Phil's hurt. Tiger's in the maternity ward.  The ho-hum summer of the century!

How ho-hum?  The Scripps National Spelling Bee was the lead story on Sports Center the other day!  I kid you not.  Now consider this:

Street Sense vs. Curlin in The Belmont Stakes with the Triple Crown at stake!

Is there a doubt in anyone's mind what the lead story in the entire world of sport would be right now, but for a scant 12 inches?  A bloody foot.  As sad as it all is, it's also true that in sport, like in life, you make your own breaks.  Still, how often in such matters does divine intervention ... the "sporting Gods" ... Lady Luck ... or however you term it, play a hand in the process?  Almost always, right?  Well, can anyone remember the last time the sport of horse racing got a decent break?  Not divine intervention, mind you.  Not some mystical Hand of Fate.  Just a simple, common, decent break?

What the hell is going on here?  And when did it all start to go so terribly amiss? 

The 70's gave us Secretariat; Seattle Slew; Affirmed & Alydar; and Spectacular Bid in a span of six years, arguably the single, greatest 6-year run for any sport in the history of modern era. 

The 80's gave us ... and hold on to your butts ... Bill Shoemaker; Laffit Pincay; Angel Cordero; Jacinto Vasquez; Jorge Velasquez; Chris McCarron; Eddie Delahoussaye; Pat Valenzuela; Gary Stevens; Pat Day; Jerry Bailey; Mike Smith; Julie Krone; and Steve Cauthen; often in the same place on the same day, and occasionally, in the same race!  The decade ended spectacularly with Sunday Silence vs. Easy Goer.

The 90's began with Unbridled, Mrs. Genter, and one of the great stories in racing lore.  Not long after came Cigar.  America's horse.  The incomparable, invincible, unbeatable Cigar, and what an unbelievable three-year run that was for racing.

And then, just like that, it ended!  Like the big bang.  Like a huge, black cloud rolled in, engulfed the sport like a specter, and has hung there ever since.  Every time a ray of hope or a sliver of light has managed to fight its way through the veil of darkness, the big ogre in the sky has whacked it off at the knees with a giant belly laugh.

Does anyone get it? 

I sure hope so, because if you're waiting for the "God came to me in the night and told me how to slay racing's dragons" ending to this piece, you're shit of luck.  In fact, blind shit out of luck.  I'm as baffled as anyone.  Totally miffed.  No bloody clue. 

What I do know ... what I can tell you with absolute clarity of mind ... is this: it's unprecedented!  Not uncommon.  Not unusual.  Not even extremely rare.  Unprecedented.  As in, without prior history.  No organized sport from the dawn of time ever has endured an uninterrupted, 10-year run of calamity and misfortune to equal this past decade in horse racing and managed to survive.  None.  I defy you to name one, or any decade in any sport for that matter, where you can't point to something in that decade and say, "THAT was positive.  THAT was good for the game.  THAT helped moved the sport forward."

Polytrack?  Maybe, but just as likely, maybe not; and perhaps even the biggest mistake of all.  Only time will tell, and time, it seems to me, is the one commodity in shortest supply in the game.  For if you believe, as I do, that "time waits on no man," then WTF is it going to take for the powers-that-be in this game to wake-up and smell the manure?  Another 10 years of bickering, lawsuits, and adversarial relationships? Another 10 years of self-imposed bad karma, and the abject futility that commonality of purpose dictates must result?

Any business, regardless of product or service, that steadfastly refuses to adapt, evolve, change with the times, and remain current, eventually will rot on the vine.  There is no less arguable, more immutable tenet of free enterprise.  And yet, at this point in the game's history, I don't think it would be the slightest exaggeration to say that time is cruising alone on the far-turn, still under wraps, with a five length lead, and the game we love is moping along at the back of the back ... unhurried ... unconcerned ... and seemingly oblivious to its peril.

The Old Hozer is right: sometimes blogging is a total waste of time.  Like debating the relative merits of the Beyer Speed Figures!  I mean, in the overall scheme of things, how utterly insignificant are they anyway?

Octave-the-Rave

Here's why you have to watch replays:

GATORIZE, within easy striking distance and four or five wide, came up empty.

You gotta love those Chart boys! 

First an aside, then the real scoop.  It occurs to me that when you take everything into account, it just might be that our sport has the best athletes in the world!  Jockeys!  There's no question they're pound-for-pound the world's best athletes.  But even in an open and unrestricted comparison, who's better?  Hockey players?  OK, I'll give you that, with the ice, blades, speed, conditioning, stick handling, hand-eye coordination, and toughness.  But after that?

Here's a tape for you to watch that'll demonstrate in spades what extraordinary athletes they are, and a horse for your Stable Mail to boot, since the Chart boys missed this completely.  Today's 9^th Race at Churchill Downs.  Watch #9 Gatorize.  About midway down the backside, you can clearly see that Shaun Bridgmohan has a ton of horse, and is in perfect position, when all of a sudden a huge chunk of dirt hits Garorize in the face, she throws her head violently, and Bridgmohan loses his left iron.  (Can you imagine the athleticism it takes not to go flying on your head after that?)  About the only indication it even happens is Bridgmohan's butt slams-off the saddle a couple of times, and Gatorize takes a really bad step, after which Bridgmohan bounces right-up and continues to ride with one leg in the irons!  Before you know it, he manages to re-engage his other iron, but by then Gatorize had lost too much precious ground.  Still, she ran-on great, and should be a terrific follow.

NEWS FLASH!!!  I just watched Fabulous Strike walk to the lead in :22.3, then cruise home in a seriously depleted 5-horse G3 in 1:07.64.  In a hand-ride, no less!  Seriously fast animal.  Only, if his :57 flat for 5F in a $75K stake @ Mountaineer Park got a 118 ... and his 1:10.1 for 6F in a $75K Stake @ Mountaineer Park before that got a 119 ... what-the-frog does the Dean do with a 1:07.64 hand-ride in a Grade 3 race @ Churchill Downs?

I mean, it can't go down.  It HAS to be higher, right?  What would you guess, 122?  And if it is, then how ridiculous does Curlin's G1 Stakes-tying record 111 look two weeks earlier?

This should be interesting!

Octave-the-Rave

Amazing the immediate reaction anything relative to His Deanness inspires.  Kudos to The Ghost and The Queen for their excellent observations.  (Re the latter, I rather suspect there may have been some cocktails served at the Q-Man's roundtable that day.  Conventional wisdom holds that one far less often is in Mr. Beyer's company, as he is in Mr. Beyer's presence!)

That aside, both learned observations wholly endorse my primordial bitch with the BSFs, which coincidentally I have never mentioned.  It is this: in my opinion, the cost/benefit ratio for the regular horse player re these figures over the years has been an unmitigated disaster. 

Here's why I think so.

Go through a week's worth of race cards at any meet, anywhere in the country, and what you'll find is that the BSFs are no more accurate than the old Speed Ratings.  The horse with the highest last race BSF wins no more often than the horse with the highest last race Speed Rating.  Ditto, with trends.  Horses trending upwards v. the BSFs (82, 85, 92) win no more often than horses trending upwards v. their last three Speed Ratings.  They simply aren't that different. 

What's different is that these Speed Ratings were around when the DRF was a dollar!  The amount of money the DRF pays to Mr. Beyer and his staff each year is unknown, since they do not have to publicly divulge such figures, but I'd like to bet it is among their single, biggest annual expenditures.  As such, there's no telling the extent to which this expense has contributed to the obscene increase in the cost of the DRF in recent years.  Worse - in fact, far worse -- is the extent to which they have contributed to the alarming decline in overall quality of the DRF in general, and its real-time reporting capabilities in particular.  The latter was never more evident than following the Preakness Stakes, when the last story about the race was posted at 8:06 p.m. on the evening following the event, and the next "new" story relative to the Preakness and/or any of its participants/principals appeared at approximately 6:00 a.m. the following Tuesday.  This is the standard USA Today business model.  USA Today has no live reporting on Saturday and Sunday; DRF has no live reporting on Sunday and Monday.  Only, USA Today costs fifty cents!  The DRF costs ELEVEN TIMES MORE! 

The question thus becomes: would the every day horse player be better served if the BSFs were discontinued, and the money instead was used to return to the full, live Sunday coverage that was standard faire at the DRF for almost 100 years; to fund innovations in its PP lines, like differentiating between "hung" and "DNCL" (did not change leads); to provide accurate, real-time, race day reporting of "first geldings" (a "G" in a square, for example); and other such innovations and efficiencies?  At the very least, it would allow the DRF to carry much of the outstanding information currently contained in the Brisnet PPs like jockey/trainer percentages, AWD for sires and dams, and the like.  And this is just off the top of my head.  I'm sure you folks can think of several more meaningful handicapping/reporting innovations you would love to see in the DRF every day that are just as "doable," and that they would be far more likely to provide, I'm sure, if they didn't have the major expense every year of the BSFs.  As is, I can't recall off-hand a meaningful innovation at the DRF this entire century, can you? 

I don't know how you folks feel, but if I were Editor-in-Chief at the DRF for only one hour, I'd spend it issuing Dean Beyer his official "Thank you, but ..." notice.

Octave-the-Rave

Even after thirty years!

While this year's announcement of our sport's Hall of Fame inductees was for Silver Charm a cause to celebrate, for me it was a giant gut-punch, and a painful reminder of what I would argue with anyone is the single, biggest training travesty in the history of the modern game.

Next year marks the 30^th anniversary of one of the greatest rivalries ever in sport, that of Affirmed and Alydar in 1978.  Affirmed's trainer was 54-year-old veteran Laz Barrera.  Alydar's conditioner was a 32-year-old, silver-spoon kid named John Veitch.  Since many of you weren't even alive then, what I am about to share you may not know.  Even if you had, I doubt it would have had the same impact prior to Curlin's remarkable victory in the Preakness, and the main reason why he was able to pull-off such an unlikely finish. 

What everyone in racing knows is that in 1978, Alydar lost the Triple Crown to Affirmed by a total of 1.5 lengths. By today's fractional timing, that total margin of defeat equates to approximately 30/100ths (0.030) of a single second of more than six minutes of eyeball-to-eyeball warfare between these two great combatants. 

What most folks don't know is this: Not once in any of those three races did Alydar switch leads in the stretch!

Let me say that plainer.  In 1978, Alydar ran the entire length of the Churchill Downs stretch in the Derby, the entire length of the Pimlico stretch in the Preakness Stakes, and the entire length of the Belmont stretch in the Belmont Stakes ON HIS WRONG LEAD!  At no point in any of those three races after turning for home and straightening out for the run through the lane did Alydar ever once, not even for a scant second, take a single stride with his fresh, right lead!

I know it sounds impossible to believe, so do not take my word for it.  Instead, if you have never seen these extraordinary races, or if it has been years since you revisited them, do yourself a favor.  In fact, give yourself a HUGE TREAT.  Someone, presumably a lifelong fan of Alydar, put together one of the most remarkable bio-pages on any horse I have ever seen, complete with the actual race footage of all three races as they were broadcast on ABC-TV back in 1978.  Here's the link.

http://www.hitak.com/home/alydar/

If you're any kind of racing fan, this trip down memory lane will be the best 6-8 minutes you've spent in a while.  And while you're watching, keep in mind Robbie Albarado last Saturday literally wrestling Curlin over to his fresh, right lead at the 1/8^th pole, and Curlin exploding thereafter to pull-out a seemingly impossible victory. 

What you'll notice from Jorge Valesquez, by contrast, is nothing of the sort!  No effort whatsoever to "help" Alydar over to his right side.  Not in the Derby.  Not in the Preakness.  And most astonishingly, not even in the Belmont; not even after Alydar had failed to change leads in both of his two prior races, and Valesquez and trainer John Veitch had three weeks to prepare, and to make absolutely certain it didn't happen for a third consecutive race.

That it happened yet again in the Belmont precisely as it had in the Derby and the Preakness is why I unabashedly contend that Alydar was the worst-trained exceptional race horse in the history of the modern era; and that his 1978 Triple Crown performance remains today among the sport's greatest enigmas.  In fact, nothing in my lifetime since has come close.  I have no doubt that had Alydar changed leads in any of those races, we would have no 1978 Triple Crown champion.  Had he changed leads in all three, who knows but that Alydar, and not Affirmed, might today be our sport's last Triple Crown Champion.  Here's how you can know that was entirely possible as you revisit this extraordinary footage.

Most people who were alive back then would argue that Affirmed's victory in the '78 Kentucky Derby was a dominant performance, and a race Alydar never could have won.  Well, pay attention to the stretch run.  Amazingly, Affirmed also runs the entire length of the stretch on his WRONG LEAD.  More to the point, he was staggering at the end.  Just a few jumps past the wire, and Alydar was in front, despite lumbering through the lane on his wrong lead.  The Preakness video is particularly intriguing.  Despite the fact that Alydar once again fails to switch leads in the final straight-away, that is not the case in the first straight-away.  Alydar is in PP #3 at the start.  Watch him exclusively from the break to the first turn in the Preakness.  After getting soundly bumped at the start, Alydar runs the entire first quarter mile of the Preakness ON HIS RIGHT LEAD.  It is the only time in this entire series you will get to enjoy this sight.  His action is magnificent!  Straight, strong, fluid, and powerful.  Compare that to his choppy, struggling action in the stretch runs; recall Curlin's magnificent, ground-gobbling action after switching leads in this year's Preakness; and you'll begin to appreciate just what a travesty this was, and remains even now, for those of us who loved Alydar.  The '78 Belmont Stakes might be the greatest race in the sport's history.  Before you click the video, check-out the still-photo beneath.  That photo, taken at the finish line, ran in every major newspaper in the world the following Sunday, and remains today one of racing's most famous.  It also is one of racing's most revealing.  Affirmed is on the inside; Alydar on the outside.  You'll note that both horses are perfectly stride-for-stride, each with his "lead leg" extended, and about to hit the ground.  For Affirmed, that would be his right, or correct, lead.  Alydar, by contrast, looks like a reverse image.  His left leg clearly is his lead leg.  Moreover, Affirmed's head is perfectly straight as he drives to the wire.  Alydar's is noticeably cocked to the right, the tale-tale sign of a desperately weary horse trying to "get out."  It is the quintessential "smoking gun" photograph of the 1978 Triple Crown, and lives in infamy to this day. In the video, watch Valesquez throughout the stretch battle.  Watch how much MORE TIME he had than Robbie Albarado to help Alydar switch leads, and amazingly ... sadly ... never even tried.

But these videos are NOT where the story ends; rather, only where it begins.  As astonishing and heart-breaking as was Alydar's failure to change leads throughout the entire Triple Crown series in 1978, what has followed in its wake has been even more remarkable.

Over the ensuing years, I have read, listened to on radio, or watched on TV countless interviews with Alydar's trainer, John Veitch, about the 1978 Triple Crown rivalry with Affirmed.  With my hand to the Lord, not once have I ever heard him even mention Alydar's failure to change leads.  Not so much as a hint, never mind an actual acknowledgement.  Just as puzzling, I have never read nor heard a single interviewer put the question directly to Mr. Veitch about Alydar's repeated and inexplicable failure to do in the 15^th, 16^th, and 17^th races of his career what most quality race horses are taught to do by their trainers before they ever step foot on a race track to compete for the first time: change leads!

That Hall of Fame trainer John Veitch had no idea at the time that Alydar was failing to change leads in the stretch during the entire Triple Crown series is an inarguable contention whose proof lives in infamy in the video archives of this series.  If he had, surely he would have 1) Changed bits; 2) Changed riders; or, at the very least 3) Instructed Jorge Valesquez to jerk Alydar's head into the grandstand crowd at Belmont Park if need be to get him "over." 

In fact, none of those things happened.  And just as I was convinced 30 years ago that John Veitch had no idea at the time ... no conception ... no earthly clue that Alydar was running on his wrong lead throughout the entire Triple Crown series, nothing that has happened since leads me to believe Mr. Veitch is aware of that fact 30 years later.

And even if he is, and is smart enough never to mention it aloud, the idea that horse racing has inducted into its most hallowed hall a trainer whose searing ignorance of one of the most fundamental tenets of his craft deprived the entire racing world from seeing the true and full potential of one its generation's greatest equine athletes is a pill I find very, very hard to swallow.

Octave-the-Rave