OCTAVE-the-RAVE

I was just watching a tape of Kelly's Landing's victory back in October @ Keeneland, a race in which a world-class sprinter trained by Doug O'Neill named Areyoutalkintome ran a good second.  Got that?  In the sprint tomorrow at The World Cup, Kelly's Landing breaks from Post 3.  Inside of him in Post 2 is a world-class sprinter named Areyoutalkingtome.  Different animals!  What are the odds of that?  It gets better.  Rumor has it they're both being pointed to the BC sprint!  And Trevor thought he had problems last year!

Rave

GODOLPHIN MILE (Dirt) - While Nad Al Sheba's long stretch rarely is kind to speed types, this is a bizarre race.  Of the 16 entries, only one - (12) SPRING AT LAST (Doug O'Neill/Garrett Gomez) - legitimately has been on the lead at the first call.  (Blatant twice, but only as a "rabbit" for stablemates.)  Since getting visored two back, he's become much more aggressive.  Flores was on the dashboard last out trying to settle him, which he never did, yet he still ran on nicely in the Santa Anita Handicap.  KEY ANGLE: Turns back from a mile-and-a-quarter.  Flores is in Dubai, but Gomez (+) picks-up mount and can read PP's with the best of them.  He's clear lead if he wants it!  If Gomez can get SaL to settle early and waltz thru some easy, early fractions, he'll be hell to catch even with the long lane, assuming his lack of Go-Go Juice (Lasix & Bute!) doesn't kick in (an interesting angle to follow throughout the day w/our shippers).  Unfortunately, we aren't the only ones who can read PP's, and my guess is this horse will get pounded down from his 10-1 ML.

UAE DERBY 1 1/8 (Dirt)  -  Tough to look past the favorite, but here's what trainer Saeed Bin Suroor (Godolphin) had to say about (4) DAY PASS (Garrett Gomez): "It is going to be tough for him, but he is a horse I like and I hope he will acquit himself well."  Extremely out of character for the usually muted Suroor.  Day Pass' last was first off a layoff, first time around 2-turns, and first time rating, basically against this same bunch, on the same track.  And oh BTW, his hand-ride G3 Nashua win @ Aqueduct where Sightseeing and Exchanger ran 2nd and 3rd also included Cowtown Cat and Adore the Gold in his rear view mirror!  Would they be 12-1 ML in here?  Juicy prospect if the fav doesn't fire.

GOLDEN SHAHEEN SPRINT 6F (Dirt)  -  Good luck in this spot!  A 16-horse cavalry charge, and totally dependent upon who gets the Golden Shaheen (Hindu for "voyage").  My buddy Yuki from the JRA (see Trainer Speak) called to say he loves his homeland tandem of (7) AGNES JEDI and (14) SEEKING THE BEST @ 30-1 each, and thinks they can run 1-2.  (Note: Yuki was at a Geisha Bar pounding the Saki when he called!)  Co-trained; shipped together; arrived early; working together; 50 starts between them in a race that favors experience; accustomed to large crowds and huge fields; one a stalker, the other a closer in a race that should produce fast fractions.  JEDI beaten 4 lengths in this race last year after shipping in the week before, this year has a race under his belt on the track, and trainer Yuki Mori on record as saying STB is the better of the two.  Again, all 16 have a shot in here, so insist on value whomever you choose.

DUBAI SHEMA CLASSIC 1 1/2 (Turf) - Check-out (7) SIR PERCY's running lines @ 2 & 3. "Veered, drifted right, drifted left, stumbled, angled-in, angled right and left."  Clear indication of a young horse who had no bloody clue what the game was about, yet his raw talent produced 5 wins in 7 starts, including the prestigious G1 Epsom Derby and G1 Dewhurst Stakes.  As a 3YO, he came off a similar 6-month freshening to run a strong second to George Washington in the G1 2000 Guineas at a mile where he found himself close-up to a dawdling pace and simply got out-sprinted late.  A month later, he was allowed to settle at the rear and exploded to win the Epsom Derby @ 1.5 miles, clearly his preferred distance (Dam's AWD is 11.2F!!).  A year older, and presumably stronger and more mature.  If you believe as I do that BC Champion Red Rocks beat the 2^nd worst field in that race's history, SIR PERCY appears the class in a race that no longer includes the likes of GW, Ouija Board, Scirocco, Deep Impact, Hurricane Run, Dylan Thomas, Rail Link, Pride, and Rob Roy, and whose morning line favorite and third betting choice have never raced outside of Japan! 

DUBAI DUTY FREE 1 1/8 (Turf) - You know it's tuff when a horse that's 16-for-19 lifetime, and on a 10-race win streak, is 20-1 in the ML!  Wide-open and no stand-outs, and a terrific spot for the Americans English Channel, who gets his favorite distance, and Miesque's Approval, who reportedly loves the Al Sheba track and is training-up a storm.  Godolphin duo also look tuff, as do Japanese contingent, but I'm trolling for a big number in here with (3) STORMY RIVER, another who danced every big dance last year as a 3YO and never ran a bad one.  Been freshened ... a year older ... presumably stronger ... but what I really like about this colt is that his Dam's AWD is 10.2F, yet he's never been asked to go further than a mile.  The extra eighth in here should be a huge bonus while on paper he looks like a confirmed miler; he figures to be covered-up nicely on the wood in a race that should produce a decent pace; and the ML of 15-1 likely will go higher.  Still, if you're stuck, the play in here could be the idiot button in the late double.

DUBAI WORLD CUP 1 1/4 (Dirt) -  Barbaro by 15!  Likely would have been his 2007 debut before heading to France for the G1 Prix Jacques Le Marois as a tune-up to his eventual coronation: the Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe.   Soooooooooo sad. 

Octave-the-Rave

Just a quick reminder that the deadline for entries in Godolphin's SEVEN STARS COMPETITION is tomorrow.  It might be the most competitive "handicapping" contest in the world.  Last year, as I recall, there was something like 200K entries from 30 countries.  Registration takes about 2-3 minutes, after which you can get complete profiles, PP's, and Timeform ratings on every horse provided for selection to your final stable simply by clicking on the horse's name, plus current updates on those who'll be competing Saturday in The World Cup on the same website.  This is my 5th year in the competition, and last year was my best showing.  I finished 2,159th!!   If enough of us do it, I thought it would interesting to post our stables after the deadline on Friday, and prior to The Cup on Saturday.

Godolphin.com

Break a leg!

Rave

Never look a gift-horse in the mouth!

Mom, 1959

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I love the Ghost.  Determined, yet diplomatic.  Strong-willed, yet ever-lucid in retort.  Indeed, a most formidable adversary with whom to tangle on any issue.  So impressed was I by his last post that I immediately forwarded it to the President of M.A.D.D. here in Florida, and informed her that said author was a billionaire industrialist and well-known horse baron, and suggested in no uncertain terms that she hit him up for HUGE money.  Then, just for good measure, I gave her his private e-mail address.

Is that goosed enough for you, big guy?

Suffice to say, every thing The Ghost penned in his retort is spot-on and inarguable.  For the NFL.  For MLB.  For the PGA.  Even for the LPGA.  And especially for the NCAA.  But the NTRA?  C'mon, Rog!  Could you possibly be implying that our beloved sport is some paragon of virtue?  Did you know that the NTRA got so desperate for corporate support of any kind not long ago they reportedly approached X-Lax about sponsoring their "Go, Baby, Go" campaign? 

In fact, my friend, the SCREAMING reality of this alliance is that it was a no-brainer.  You know what tells you that?  History! 

Since history is our greatest teacher, the NTRA needed look no further for guidance and learned wisdom than the alliances that helped make NASCAR the fastest growing sport in America, foremost among them Anheuser-Busch.  On the heels of Anheuser-Busch quickly followed Miller Lite, Jack Daniels, Jim Beam, Coors, Crown Royal, SoBe, and Red Bull - all major sponsors.  These guys drive cars for a living.  At 200 mph!  Is there a sport on the planet less suited for bedding down with big alcohol than auto racing?  Yet, you don't see M.A.D.D. out picketing their events, nor sports writers screaming bloody murder about perceived improprieties.  It's because no one of sound mind would think a NASCAR driver crazy enough to slug-down a fifth of Jack Daniels before getting behind the wheel, no more so that anyone of sound mind will think that the water cooler in the Jock's room at Monmouth on BC Day will be filled with Grey Goose. 

And even if they did, Rog, do you know how much FREE exposure Anheuser-Busch gives NASCAR every year?  On television.  On the internet.  In print ads.  On promotional materials and give-away items.  If this was Anheuser-Busch instead of Grey Goose - and they promised to do for our sport what they've done for NASCAR -- would your position still be the same? 

Perhaps your laudable argument on the side of virtue and propriety would have held sway 30 years ago when horse racing was still the Sport of Kings.  Not today.  Not even close.  For every legitimate argument you can make on the side of virtue, there are a dozen business and financial realities confronting the game that reduce it to ashes.  If anything, we should be applauding the NTRA for its foresight, switching EN MASSE to Grey Goose for our late daily-double martinis -- or late, daily, double martinis - and hoping, for the future well-being of the game, that other well-heeled manufacturers of premium spirits with millions to spend promoting our sport follow suit.

Octave-the-Rave

I was out of town when the most recent issue of HP Magazine arrived, and only got to enjoy it recently.  Until reaching Randy Moss' piece at the very end - a man who beyond his excellence as a journalist and broadcaster I believe has evolved into our sport's #1 asset, and one of its most important figures - I thought the best piece in the whole issue ... sincerely, and with no smoke ... was the one penned by our guys Ghost & Charm.  By any professional yardstick - quality of writing, organization, content, clarity, flow, readability, etc. - it took a backseat to nothing or no one. 

I don't know who's next, but he better get his game on.

That said and rare as it is that I disagree with Caesar's Ghost on anything, I strongly disagree with his stance on the BC's alliance with Grey Goose.  Here's why.

I just returned yesterday from a difficult week in Louisville burying my Godmother.  Her son is a business partner and one of my closest friends on Earth who for years has been my host for the Kentucky Derby.  Louisville already is abuzz about The Derby, and the vast apparatus that ends with "The Greatest Two Minutes in Sport" already is in full throttle, spear-headed as always by the industry that for more than 130 years single-handedly has carried the Derby on its shoulders: WHISKEY! 

In fact, the state owes its existence to the liquor industry, and while it no longer is their #1 revenue producer, it forever will be synonymous not only with the state itself, but also with its greatest attraction.  Mint juleps, The Jim Beam Stakes, Maker's Mark Mile, annual Brownstable Gala (as in Brown-Forman), Thunder Over Louisville, and the literally dozens of other liquor-company sponsored events surrounding the 2-week Derby Festival are as much a part of the cultural landscape of the Derby as the race itself.  Given the liquor industry's joined-at-the-hip, 130-year relationship with America's greatest horse race, suggesting that the BC aligning itself with a liquor company is the least bit radical or controversial seems a bit naïve, and particularly so when the company of choice is Grey Goose.

For the past five years, Grey Goose has been a major sponsor-partner with the Golf Channel, its only liquor-company related affiliate.  In the entire galaxy of organized sport, none is regaled more for its ethics and propriety than golf, nor is anyone in the game's history more respected than Arnold Palmer.  Palmer owns the Golf Channel.  He made the decision to partner with Grey Goose, and then only on the condition that they continue to emphasize in their marketing campaigns the "drink responsibly" theme they pioneered, and that the rest of the industry since has been forced to copy.

And while I respectfully plead "the 5^th" on LA Confidential's recent rant, he makes a worthy point that much of what has been written of late tying-in March racing to the Breeders' Cup has been shamefully contrived, and solely intended to gain favor with the judges.  Some of it already has.  The Ghost's is NOT such a piece.  To the contrary, before reading it I was unaware of the BC's alliance with Grey Goose, and that alone makes it a legitimately newsworthy Breeders' Cup article.  Moreover, while a worthy argument can be made that aligning itself with Grey Goose actually ADDS respectability to the Breeders' Cup - given the company's long-standing relationship with Arnold Palmer and its award-winning "drink responsibly" campaign - he had the considerable courage to take an alternative viewpoint ... an anti-Breeders' Cup viewpoint ... without the slightest personal consideration for contest "brownie points," never mind shameless butt-smooching ... and expressed it with conviction.

I don't get to vote, but if I did, Caesar's Ghost is exactly the kind of guy I'd want covering The Breeders' Cup for me.

Octave-the-Rave

Respiratory problems are the most common cause of lost days of training for race horses. Respiratory infections are generally treated with rest, and sometimes with antibiotics and medication to control fever. 

Veterinary report to the European Racing Community (where Lasix generally is banned), January, 2007

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When I joined this site a year ago, it wasn't to win a contest, get a job, nor become a racing analyst.  I joined because I believed then, as I do now, that as regular horse players we have less influence on the game's direction today than ever in my lifetime.  As everyday patrons, we are the life blood of the sport.  Without us, every race track in NA would shut down inside a week.  And yet, we have no national organizations, no industry lobbying groups, no congressional representatives, nor even a single Player's Rep.

What we have is THIS!  This website, and others like it, are the sum total of our voice in the game.  I peruse most of them.  I contribute to this one because I believe it is among the very few that is read routinely by those in racing who make the rules. 

Last year, we tackled some serious issues on here.  We lobbied racing to curtail the wanton slaughter of horses for human consumption.  They responded.  We urged racing to unify its protocols for DQs, or get rid of DQs altogether, and let ‘em race.  I can speak only for FG, Gulfstream, and Oaklawn, but the difference thus far in 2007 has been remarkable.  Not only has there been a precipitous drop in the number of steward's inquiries and claims allowed, but gone for the most part are the inordinate delays in making decisions that we cited as a key reason for why the system cried-out for overhauling.

There is no way of knowing what influence, if any, we had on either issue, nor is that important.  What's important is that through spirited debate and intelligent discourse, we arrived at majority viewpoints on both issues that clearly were in the best interest of the sport's image and playability.  In each case, we opted for change over status quo. Both issues, in fact, have changed to reflect our majority views, and the game today is better for it. 

Recently, Queenbee and Lady ‘Capper posted well-written commentaries on one of the most controversial issues in the game today: drugs.  Last year, when folks ran-out of things to write about, invariably they'd post a scathing commentary on how drugs are ruining the game.  Every time I read such a blog, I harken-back to an announcement in the early 90's that I knew at once was going to end the greatest period in the sport I had ever known, or likely ever would know.  It was the announcement that Kenny Noe, Jr. was leaving Florida to join NYRA.  I knew the first thing he'd do upon his arrival in New York was advocate lifting the ban on Lasix.

During those few, short, glorious years when Lasix was approved in Florida, yet still banned in New York, winter racing at Gulfstream was unbelievable.  Stalls at Gulfstream, Calder, Hialeah, and Peyson Park were oversubscribed months in advance.  Every turf monster, graded stakes and handicap horse, and 3YO with an inkling of Classic's aspiration poured into the state, brought here by names like Whitney, Phipps, Firestone, Lewis, and the rest of the crème of racing's elite.  None came for the purses.  A few came for the weather.  Still others for the exposure.  But most came for the luxury of knowing their trainers could implement the aggressive conditioning regimen essential to achieving the early results they sought in their string of young and expensive horses without having to worry about the one thing that interrupted that training more often than all other reasons combined: bleeding, and the plethora of debilitating complications that accompanied respiratory problems to which young, expensive horses for years had been subject. 

So that everyone fully is informed, here is the PDR on furosemide, the industry generic for Lasix:

Furosemide is a diuretic that increases the amount of urine, thus causing the body to rid itself of excess water. The drug is used to treat high blood pressure.  Lowering high blood pressure helps prevent strokes, heart attacks, and kidney problems. This medication also reduces swelling/fluid retention (edema) which can help prevent conditions such as congestive heart failure, liver disease, or kidney disease. It also can help improve problems such as trouble breathing.

Help trouble breathing!  The PDR mentions it almost as an afterthought, so insignificant is it compared to its principle applications.  Yet most of us think that's ALL Lasix does!  In terms of quality of life - and what more telling criteria is there for any drug? -- Lasix is every bit the miracle drug for horses that Prilosec and Prevacid are for the tens of millions of us who suffer from reflux disease.

For those who want it banned, I fully understand and appreciate their arguments, foremost among them that it too often is used to mask illegal drugs.  Before going there, let's take a quick look at the next most prevalent argument for banning the drug: it helps weaken the breed.  Invariably when this argument arises, proponents are quick to point-out that in countries like Germany, for example, no horse that ever raced on medication is allowed to procreate.

Quite magnanimous ... only ... aside from that one-time wonder Scirocco, how many other German-bred horses of note can anyone name off the top of his head over the past 10 years?  Twenty years?  Thirty years?  Don't wrack your brain.  There aren't any.  So what does that say to this "purifying the breed" argument when the healthiest, purest-bred thoroughbreds on the planet year after year can't outrun a school bus?

Besides, if there was any real validity to this "weakening of the breed" argument, why would outfits like Darley, Coolmore, Godolphin, Shadai and others continue to cherry-pick our "drug-addled" stallions when, in fact, the overwhelming majority of their racing mares never came near Lasix, nor any other medication?  Would guys that smart, with that much money, whose lifeblood is breeding, intentionally "poison" their lineage?

Here again, perception flies counter-intuitive to reality.

But on to the primal argument, namely: that Lasix is being used to mask illegal drugs.  Clearly it is, but with far less frequency I believe than most regulars players would dream.  Once again, let your common sense guide you in this argument.  Contrary to what most people think, neither Steve Asmussen nor Todd Pletcher stepped foot on a race track, nor a training facility, during their entire suspensions.  Granted, they spoke with their respective assistants 15-50 times a day, but neither had a shard of physical contact with their stock during that entire period.  My question is this: Is there anyone who actually believes that in their absence, their Assistants were drugging horses, or allowing the Vet to drug horses under their care? Is there anyone so jaded as to think that?  Because if not, then how do you explain the fact that both Scott Blasi and Anthony Scimetta managed to maintain almost identical win percentages as their bosses Asmussen and Pletcher for an entire half-year of racing?

What is that, a giant coincidence?  Or is it not far more likely that the quality of their racing stock, and their essential intangibles, are just that much better than everyone else's?  What's an essential intangible, you ask?  John Valasquez!  Dr. Algood!  Angel Cordero!  Didja know that?  That 135 pound, hard-as-nails Angel Cordero is Pletcher's go-to exercise rider in the days leading-up to big races involving his stars and future stars whom John V. is going to ride? 

How many lengths is it worth, do you suppose, to have one of the greatest riders in history working your young horses in the days leading-up to a big race? 

But even if drugs are as rampant as most folks think, the idea that we can put Pandora back in the proverbial box from whence she came is so naive it pains me to read it. Knowing what we all know about the game and how it works - independently, from jurisdiction to jurisdiction, with every track competing against every other track - can anyone fathom even a single "crusading" race track banning all drugs altogether?  It would be suicidal.  The notion that it could ever happen across the entire breadth of American racing, as some have suggested, is just ludicrous.

Instead, as Queenbee and Lady H. suggested, clearly the answer to racing's drug problem lies in aggressive enforcement.  If the success garnered by Scott Blasi and Anthony Scimetta taught racing anything, it should have been that no trainer is bigger than the game itself, nor is any one trainer so good that there isn't another just as capable waiting in the wings to take his place.  Clearly the time has come to ramp-up the penalties to such an extent that they ensure a meaningful deterrent, while at the same time maintaining a modicum of sanity.  Minimum penalties to which I think the majority of us would be amenable might be 1 year - 1^st offense; 3 years - 2^nd offense; and an irrevocable, lifetime ban for a 3^rd offense.  I also would advocate wiping clean every trainer's current slate, and starting fresh.  My "modicum of sanity," if you will, and a far easier sell, notwithstanding the doubtless cries of "shameful" from the throw-the-baby-out-with-the-bathwater brigade.

If my seemingly "soft" position on drugs strikes you as odd, I'd ask you to consider another reality: all the Lasix, Bute, clanbuterol, EPO, and cobra venom on the planet cannot make a horse run faster.  By "faster," I mean at a higher rate of MPH.  Drugs can help a horse carry his natural speed further.  They can permit a horse to run with less discomfort, thus allowing him to achieve his maximum MPH.  But they can't make a horse run faster!  Only steroids and steroid derivatives like HGH can make a horse run faster, since they artificially increase muscle mass, and only muscle mass can make a horse run faster.  (Google Ben Johnson!) 

I did steroids on a lark in the summer of 1988.  Injectibles, straight into the gluts with a 4" needle, every Monday morning for three months.  What I can tell you is: 1) The results are astonishing; 2)  They are extremely expensive; and 3) Within 90-120 days of quitting, most or all of the artificial muscle mass had disappeared, just as I was told it would. 

Here's what you logically can deduce from my experience as it relates to race horses.  Given the fact that steroids virtually are a lifetime process once begun, and considering the enormous cost inherent therein, the likelihood that they are widespread in horses of racing age is remote.  Your common sense tells you that.  However, in the sales industry today where millions of dollars often are counted in fifths-of-seconds; where drug testing doesn't exist; where there isn't even a mandate for full disclosure v. steroids, much less a 30-day "lemon law;" even a Green Monkey could see where the temptation for breeders and pinhookers to abuse steroids and HGH would be overwhelming. 

But here again, that's a racing issue.  It doesn't effect us as players.

For those who believe passionately that drugs have a palpably negative influence on the quality of the breed; on longevity, overall soundness, and even the incidence of catastrophic breakdown; they have a legitimate and worthy claim to their beliefs.  However, until a geneticist or biotechnology firm specializing in equine molecular and population genetics conducts the definitive, long-term study, and produces tangible data to confirm those assertions, those who would disagree are no less entitled to their beliefs.

In any case, drugs are an industry problem.  They are NOT a player's problem, except from the standpoint of pure emotion, and Lady H.'s analogy v. Tiger Woods is spot-on in that regard.  Who among us doesn't yearn for another Triple Crown champion; another Cigar; a healthy Barbaro; a Bernardini at four; or a Ghostzapper at five.  We all do, and maybe drugs do have some bearing on why we continually find ourselves robbed of late of these blessings.

But what they have absolutely nothing to do with ... what I'm sick of reading about and tired of hearing ... is the notion that drugs in the game are a contributing factor to one's futility at the betting windows.  On its own merits that excuse would qualify for the Lamo Hall of Fame.  What makes it even more egregious is the fact that the overwhelming number of trainer suspensions each year are for positives on horses that don't even hit the board!

As players, we have more legitimate beefs with the game today than ever in history. McKinney's most recent post quite nicely addresses that point.  Many of our problems are eminently fixable, and aggressively lobbying those in racing who make the rules to give us our just due as the game's lifeblood is one of our primary mandates on this site.  Focusing our passion on things we can fix, and that affect us as players, in my opinion, is how we best can help this site, each other, and the game.

Octave the Rave

ring ... ring ... ring ...

Operator:  Hello, Bridge Jumping Authority, Gladys speaking, how may I help you?

Rave:  Gladys ... Gladys ... listen dear, you have to help me, you have to help me.

Operator:  Calm down now sir.  What seems to be the problem?

Rave:  I have a friend I'm pretty sure is on his way there to do a Sunday header and you have to run out and stop him, OK?  Please, can you do that?  Can you go do that?

Operator:  Well, sir, I have a perfect view of the bridge from here and I can tell you right now there's no one on it.  But I also should tell you we don't do that.  We just pick up the floaters.

Rave:  Do you charge by the pound?

Operator:  Scuze me?

Rave:  Never mind.  Look, I know he's on his way.  Please, can you keep an eye out for him?

Operator:  Alright ... well ... the jumper's name?

Rave:  Jeremy Plonk.

Operator:  Spell it, please.

Rave:  Sure.    R - O - U - N - D.      P - O - N - D.

Operator:  That spells Round Pond.  What kind of name is that?

Rave:  It's a rat's name, but I'm pretty sure he'll answer to it.

Operator:  And the jumper's attire?

Rave:  No problem.  He'll be wearing a black tee-shirt with fluorescent orange lettering that reads, "I AM THE WORLD'S GREATEST F*****G HANDI  

Hello?    Gladys?    Hello?

Octave the Rave