OCTAVE-the-RAVE

There are big Beyer Speed Figures, and then there are huge ones.  Fabulous Strike, a 4-year-old Smart Strike gelding based at Penn National with Todd Beattie, ended 2006 with figures of 115 and 119, then registered a 118 in his only race this year, a $75,000 stakes race on May 5. All three figures came in sprint races at Mountaineer Race Track!!!  Nonetheless, Andrew Beyer himself said the figures for Fabulous Strike are "rock solid."

Daily Racing Form On-line Edition  -  May 31, 2007

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Wow, excellent reading tonite!

Before I address the above, some fodder for your knowledge-bank.  You may have noticed the CD debut today of a young apprentice named Colby J. Hernandez, who got nipped by a bloody nose after leading every step of the way on a 13-1 shot.  "CJ" is the 17 YO little brother of 22 YO jockey Brian Hernandez, a key member of CD's Cajun Mafia (Borel, Albarado, Lanerie, Guidry, et al).  After the race, big brother took little brother into the workout room, put him on the mechanical exercise horse, and gave him a lesson in "making a horse change leads."  CJ Hernandez is a nice little rider who won almost 50 races at Delta Downs before coming to CD to join his big brother.  Big brother, on the other hand, is an absolute stud, and a certain future superstar in the game.  He has all the tools.  Perfect seat, sweet hands, the clock-in-the-head, stick magic with both hands, and a tremendous closer who's totally fearless.  His ride on the last race winner today ($18.20, thank you very much!) was a gem.  The horse hadn't been out for a year, lead every step, was staggering at the 1/16th pole, and appeared beaten, when "BJ" literally carried him the rest of the way.  Still, he isn't nearly as well known yet as his Cajun brothers, and struggles like all young jocks to get quality rides.  However, when you do see him on something even remotely competitive, you can know two things with 100% assurance: 1) You're going to get a quality ride; and 2) He'll be trying his butt off all the way to the wire.

And, oh by the way, he's a HUGE FAN of the Big Blog Pages, and reads everything!

And now on to one of my favorite topics in the game, Dean Beyer!

I think it would be fair to say that the more astute, knowledgeable, and experienced a horse player is, the less firepower the Beyer Speed Figures carry in his/her overall handicapping arsenal.  Conversely, you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone who came to the game in earnest during ... say ... the last 10 years or so who doesn't think them infallible, and doesn't rely on them almost exclusively in his handicapping regimen.  Further, I believe that assertion more than plays itself out here on the Big Blog Pages, from the Big Guy JP, right down to our rankest amateur.

Perhaps no one on here - nor in the game, for that matter - gives these figures less credence than I.  I first began questioning Dean Beyer's acumen way back in 1992 when he was running all over the country guaranteeing Arazi would win the Triple Crown, and comparing him unabashedly to one of the genuine idols of my youth, Secretariat.  Frankly, the very idea that anyone so highly respected in American racing would be running around comparing ANY foreign-bred horse to America's Champion I thought was astonishing enough.  But Arazi?  A scrawny, skin-and-bones, nickel-bred little French Crème Puff whose daddy couldn't be towed further than a mile, and whose few progeny to date of substance ALL had achieved their success on the turf?   Honestly, I was flabbergasted.  After the Derby, when he blamed Arazi's demise on everything from poor preparation to P. Val's ride, for me the bloom fell-off the Beyer rose with a thud.

Over the next 10 years, I watched in awe as Derby after Derby, Breeders' Cup after Breeders' Cup, Dean Beyer touted horses I literally couldn't bet with monopoly money.  In fact, in the Derby, he went 0-for-the-decade of the 90's, which brings me to 2001 and Monarchos.  You might recall Monarchos won the Florida Derby before laying an egg in a pre-Derby nothing-prep in which he basically got the tour.  I arrived in Louisville that year lathered at the thought of pounding him at the windows at what I knew would be double-digit odds.  When I picked-up the DRF mid-week and saw where Dean Beyer had picked Monarchos on top, I wanted to puke, but by then I was committed.  I already had told everyone Monarchos was our Derby horse.

I still bet him, but not nearly with the same enthusiasm, nor even to the extent some of my twice-a-year, don't-know-what-end-a-horse-eats-with Louisville buddies bet him.  A few days later when I read Dean Beyer's "I told you so" Derby recap, and saw where he had ascribed to Monarchos the highest Beyer speed figure in Kentucky Derby history in what clearly was a shameless display of self-aggrandizement, whatever respect I had left for his integrity went sailing out the window.

Mind you, this is merely my opinion based solely on personal experience and observation, and deserves, as well, no more weight than that: an opinion.  Having said that, I defy anyone ... ANYONE ... to speak with any semblance of lucidity ... not intelligence, mind you ... not searing insight ... but simply non-drooling coherence about the excerpt from the DRF that precedes this piece!

Explain to me, if you will, how a horse like Barbaro can stumble at the start, get up, and win the world's most famous and prestigious horse race by the largest margin in six decades and in a final closing ¼ mile time second only to the immortal Secretariat; or how a horse like Curlin can stumble at the start, get up, and equal the stakes record in arguably the 3^rd or 4^th most famous and prestigious horse race in the world and join only the immortal Nashua in the entire 132-year history of that event to run each of his three middle quarters under 24 seconds; and both of these performances "earn" Beyer Speed Figures of 111.

Meanwhile, a sprinter ... a SPRINTER, no less ... while the rest of the racing world was marveling at Street Sense's spectacular Kentucky Derby victory ... was winning a $75,000 common-as-rainwater stakes race at Mountaineer Park ... in that racing mecca of the universe West Verf***inginia, no less ... and "earning" a Beyer Speed Figure of ONE HUNDRED AND EIGHTEEN?

Hmmmmmm, know what?  After writing that, and then re-reading it, I have decided to revise the standard: in fact, drooling will be perfectly acceptable.  Or just grunt me an explanation.  Heck, I'll settle for smoke signals.  Whatever.  But please ... someone ... anyone ... extract from this teeming lunacy a shard, a tidbit, an iota of anything even remotely rational in its defense, and I promise I not only will nominate you for Humanitarian of the Year, I'll pen to the Selection Committee an argument for your candidacy that'll knock their peckers in their watch pockets!

Octave-the-Rave

Nafzger said Tafel "wanted to win the Triple Crown like you wouldn't believe," and that "it really deflated us when we got beat."

Daily Racing Form On-line Edition  -  May 31, 2007

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James Tafel, Sr. has been a year-round South Floridian, and a frequent visitor to the Palm Beach Kennel Club, for at least the 21 years since I moved here.  To say he is one of the most gracious, charming, and engaging gentlemen in racing would be an understatement.  Plus, his love and enthusiasm for the game is unbridled, and always has been.

The statement above v. Street Sense's defection from the third leg of the Triple Crown tells only half the story.  To his friends and cohorts this week, Mr. Tafel has been just as candid about his disappointment after the race as he was with its outcome.  To more than one well-wisher he's been heard to opine that "the negative press blaming Calvin for Street Sense's loss took the fun out of it for all of us."

To which malaprops like Jason Shandler, Steve Haskin, and others no doubt would reply, "We don't make the news.  We just report on it!"

In light of today's announcement, I'm sure every one on the Big Blog Pages would want to join racing fans the world over in saying:

Swell job of reporting, fellas!

Octave-the-Rave

This oughta tighten yer tweeter, big guy!

For starters, the compliment wasn't "backwards."  At least, it wasn't meant to be.  I really do read the NTRA blogs religiously, and when JP announced you were going to be Maven's mid-season replacement, I was stoked.  It's not just that you know your stuff that I appreciate.  It's your ability to convey it in print with an economy of verbiage, a trait I dearly envy.

Having said that, I am compelled yet again to put your metal to the fire, big guy.  Everyone, in fact who, like you, still is convinced that Calvin Borel's ride was a significant contributing factor in Street Sense's Preakness defeat. 

Here is my challenge to all of that persuasion, and it's a beauty. 

Prior to 6:32 p.m. on Saturday, May 19, 2007, I defy anyone to produce a single word of published copy by a member of the racing press ... a quotation or comment by either Calvin Borel, Carl Nafzger, or Jim Tafel ... or the slightest observation or speculation by anyone, anywhere, either inside of racing or out ... ANYTHING ... even remotely suggestive that Street Sense is, or even might be, the kind of horse "who pulls himself up when he makes the lead!"

Anyone ever recall any such speculation, or hear anything of the sort about Street Sense, prior to Calvin Borel saying as much to Carl Nafzger on live national television while Bob Nuemeyer was preparing to interview him?  You may recall Borel mumbled it to Nafzger, then repeated the identical claim to Neumeyer, TO WIT: "that Street Sense started looking around the final 40 yards, and got distracted by the infield crowd!"  Remember that?  What you might not know is that at that exact instant, Carl Nafzger was repeating that identical "excuse" almost word-for-word verbatim to a group of reporters from the print media just feet away from Borel.

But before that instant ... before that interview ... does anyone recall hearing or reading about this being a "known tendency" in Street Sense?  More to the point, when has he ever before displayed this "known tendency" on the race track?  In the BC Juvy?  He was still opening-up when they crossed the wire.  In the TB Derby.  He ran his nutz off, and ran Any Given Saturday's up into his eyeballs.  In the Derby?  Watch Borel's early celebration, and you'll note Street Sense's ears are pinned straight back well past the wire.  So when exactly did this mysterious "tendency" develop? 

It didn't!  Nor does it exist. 

Just like Pino panicked during the running of the race, Calvin panicked afterwards.  I believe he was in a state of semi-shock.  What happened to Street Sense doesn't happen once in a thousand horse races.  A jock simply does not blow-by a horse in the stretch like he's nailed to a fence post, then have that same horse come back and catch him at the wire.  It would be unsettling in a $25,000 claiming race, and difficult to explain to an owner or trainer.  In the Preakness Stakes before a worldwide audience on a potential Triple Crown Champion?  He had to be in something akin to shock.  Moreover, he hadn't seen a replay yet; wasn't aware that Curlin was on his wrong lead when he passed him; and had no clue that Robbie got Curlin "over," and simply ran him down.  We all knew.  The whole racing world watching on TV knew.  But Borel didn't know.  I doubt seriously even Nafzger knew at that point.  Instead, I'm absolutely convinced the "he started looking around and goofing-off" excuse just popped into Borel's head; he mumbled it to Nafzger; Nafzger bought it hook, line, and sinker and repeated it to the media; and before we knew it, it not only became the prime reason for Street Sense's defeat in The Preakness, it became a "tendency" he had even before the Preakness!

Folks, here's how you can be fairly well certain that this "tendency to pull himself up" nonsense is just that; and that no one in the national racing media had the presence of mind to question the validity of that excuse before puking all over his keyboard.

If that was true ... if, in fact, "goofing off, looking around, and getting distracted on the lead" was a tendency known definitively to Carl Nafzger ... and assuming Street Sense possessed this tendency long before the Preakness ... and presumably long before the Kentucky Derby ... and knowing, as you do, what a fastidious, meticulous, leave-no-stone-unturned type of professional conditioner is Carl Nafzger ... then don't you know ... don't you just KNOW ... categorically and without doubt ... that Mr. Nafzger would have worked Street Sense in company WITH BLINKERS the second this tendency became known to him?

In fact, they make the exact blinkers today for this very "loafing" tendency -- blinkers with holes cut on either side that allow a horse to see both peripherally, and straight ahead, but do not allow him to "look around and start goofing off" when he gets to the lead.  In fact, it's such a minor change and a minor adjustment for a race horse that most racing jurisdictions don't even require the customary "blinkers" work prior to first-time use in an actual race.

Surely .. surely ... if Street Sense had this unusual and extremely undesirable "tendency" ... namely ... to stop running when he made the lead ... surely a man like Carl Nafzger would have had these blinkers on Street Sense the day after he found out, if only in a morning breeze, and far more likely in a company work where he blew by his workmate, to see if the blinks were a viable option for negating this "known tendency."

Trust me: two-for-a-thousand Jamie Sanders would have had them on Dooflesberg the next morning.  Carl Nafzger?  To my knowledge, Street Sense has never once so much as even galloped with blinkers, much less worked, and that makes no sense for a world-class horse with a common and potentially costly flaw in his arsenal.

For the record, Street Sense works at Churchill Downs tomorrow morning.  If he doesn't show-up in some kind of visor for this work after all the national attention this "known tendency" has gotten, you can draw your own conclusions about the validity of this "he pulls himself up when he makes the lead" malarkey.

Octave-the-Rave

The Met Mile also USED TO BE one of my favorite races of the entire year.  Anymore, it's a joke.  Consider this.

In the race prior to the Met Mile, a 1 mile, N2X for New York state-breds, the winner Pays to Dream got the distance in 1:34.87.  The 6^th place finisher, Prince of Peace, was beaten a total of four lengths.

In the Met Mile, Corinthian got the same distance in 1:34.77.  By my calculations, Pays to Dream ran faster than all but one horse in the Met Mile, and the top six finishers in that NY state-bred N2X heat ran faster than Sun King, Latent Heat, Silver Wagon, Half Ours, Silent Name, and Mr. Umphrey!

So how bad is the Handicap Division? 

OUCH!

And now the UGH, and a word about hypocrisy - as unbecoming a human trait as any that afflicts the species, and one that is more rampant in our sport it seems than any other.  I got a comment in my Randy Moss piece from AmateurCapper that reads as follows: "Could it be the "expert" was injecting a bit of disappointment about a losing wager on Hard Spun instead of looking at the race replay objectively?"

"Expert" in parens, no less!  Randy Moss!  That bit of incipidity aside, it isn't the first time on here that AmCap, and others, have dismissed thoughtful and objective analysis as nothing more than sour grapes over a losing wager.  Well, perhaps this caustic reminder will lessen the occurrence going forward of that redoubtable habit.

Yo ‘Cap, re Desormeaux, YOU'RE the only one who isn't worthy.  His ride on Premium Tap in the World Cup was brilliant, and maybe his best-ever in a high-profile, spotlight race.  Your criticism was ill-founded then, and remains so today.  In fact, KD single-handedly eliminated Discreet Cat at the break, and gave Frankie Detorri a riding lesson in his own backyard. 

More to the point of this exercise, you've been pissing-and-moaning this baseless criticism about Desormeaux non-stop for two months.  And why?  Because you bet on Premium Tap in the World Cup, and lost your wager.  Hypocrisy?  Your tongue should fall out of your head before you accuse anyone in print of being a hypocrite, never mind someone like Randy Moss whose jock strap I can't carry, and whom you'll be lucky in 20 years to know by then what he's long since forgotten.

Octave-the-Rave

If you think we aren't a bunch of sick puppies ... if you think this hobby of ours isn't one notch above blind-folded high-wire unicycling without a net ... wait 'til you get a load of this story.

For those who don't know, CLOCKER-1 is one-half of a 2-man crew that runs the jock's room @ CD.  They do everything from making sure the lads are ready and on time before the race to weighing them in afterwards.  In today's 9th race, jockey Miguel Mena did a big-time header on the turf course coming-out the gate when his mount Chief Export stumbled, fell, then rolled on him.  Mena walked away under his own power and returned to the jock's room.  Clocker-1, who had watched the spill on closed-circuit, was the first to greet him, and insisted he go to the Medical Examiner's office for a thorough check-up, only Mena had a mount upcoming in the G3 Louisville Handicap for Dale Romans, for whom he has ridden three winners out of six mounts this month, and Mena wouldn't hear it, and scurried back into the jock's area.  C-1 called the Medical Staff to the jock's room instead.  As soon as Mena saw them, he began shouting, "No proleng.  No proleng.  I fine.  I fine."

After a cursory examination by the Med Staff and further assurances by Mena to C-1 and partner that he was OK, the Med Staff cleared him to ride, which he did, finishing 10th in a field of 11.  Upon returning to the jock's room after the race, Mena scurried past C-1's desk on his way to the jock's area and announced tersely, "I no riding the last race," then quickly disappeared into the locker room, followed closely behind by the aforementioned, and now steaming, C-1. 

All the while C-1 was explaining to the lad that everyone else had gone home, that there were no replacement riders to take his mount, and that if he didn't ride the track would be forced to scratch his mount, Mena kept repeating, "I no riding hing.  I no riding hing."  Finally, C-1 called his partner and between them, they managed to show the lad the error of his ways.

"We gave him The Merchant of Venice treatment," reported C-1.  "We threatened him with a pound of flesh!"  (The joys of a classic education!)  Basically, C-1 and partner assured Mena that unless he fulfilled his last race obligation, they were going to put his ass on one of those digital cocaine scales that weighs-out to the tenth of a gram for the remainder of the meet!  Mindful that C-1 speaks fluent Spanish, nevertheless C-1 reported that Mena left the jock's room spewing invectives even he had never heard before.

Now, are you ready for the punchline?  After desperately trying to weasel-out of a mount he thought had no chance, and cursing bloody murder when he couldn't, all the lad did was light-up the last race tote board to the tune of $133.40, $49.00, and $19.60, keying a $2,147 exacta; $14,497 trifecta; $18,684 P3; $88,032 P4; and $232,688 superfecta!

Izzat any good, or wot!

Rave

As most of you know, I long have believed that the current Triple Crown schedule is a fossilized dinosaur that drags at the ankles of the modern game like a boat anchor.  Still, even I didn't realize just how archaic it had become until this past week.  Check-out these statistics.

Twenty years ago, in 1987, there were 15 thoroughbred horse races worldwide with purses of $1M or more.  One of them was The Breeders' Cup Classic.  Another was The Belmont Stakes.

Today there are close to a hundred races worldwide with purses of $1M or more, the richest of which is The Dubai World Cup at $6M.  The Breeders' Cup Classic has a purse of $4M, a 400 percent increase over the past 20 years.  Meanwhile, the purse for the Belmont Stakes hasn't increased a dime in all that time.  It remains $1M.

When asked last year by Dean Beyer about this failure to keep pace with the times, then NYRA Sr. VP Bill Nader was quoted for publication as saying, "The Belmont is known as the true classic race.  Winning it looks terrific on a horse's résumé."

For the record, I'm working on a non-fiction novel tentatively titled, "Famous Quotes from Horse Racing's Nitwit Brigade."  Mr. Nader's quotation above currently tops the list for the chapter entitled, "Cosmically Out of Touch with Reality!"

If anything, folks, winning the Belmont Stakes has become a liability on a horse's resume.  As the only 1.5 mile race on dirt in American racing, it has become associated more with common plodders than exceptional athletes.  Given how insignificant "stamina" has become as a target-asset for American breeders, it's little wonder why horses like Editor's Note, Birdstone, Victory Gallop, and others command stud fees no higher than those of a typically useful state-bred.

There have been many disparaging comments made this Triple Crown season about Steve Asmussen.  Every time I read one, I think back to this time last year; how heart-broken I was about Barbaro; and how furious I was at Sheikh Hambone and that whole common-as-rainwater Bernardini crew for pissing in racing's face, and shining The Belmont Stakes with a perfectly sound, fresh, and healthy horse.  Steve Asmussen easily could have done the same with Curlin, and no one in racing would have blamed him an iota.  Instead, to his considerable credit, he never even thought about it.  Thanks almost exclusively to Steve Asmussen, the rest of us have something genuinely exciting to look forward to the next couple of weeks.

Why Larry Jones is running Hard Spun is beyond me even to fathom, much less comprehend.  The only plausible explanation is that the whirlwind excitement in which he finds himself for the first time in his long career has managed to completely overwhelm his basic sensibilities.

Short of some last minute bonus money by NYRA or Belmont Park, I'll be totally flabbergasted if Street Sense runs.

In fact, if Curlin and Hard Spun instead were in the hands of any conservative conditioner in the Barclay Tagg mold, or any of the Left Coasters whose grasp of tradition ends abruptly at the San Andreas Fault, we'd be looking at a Belmont Stakes upcoming whose likely pre-race favorite - at best, and at most exciting -- would be a filly named Rags to Riches!

And yet, like so many other things in racing that remain anchored to a game that no longer exists, and that pound like a sledge hammer on common sense for re-tooling, the bulk of the industry continues to yawn its way through the new millennium, content to rest its laurels on the "grand traditions" of its most sacred of cows, The Triple Crown.

Well, here's a news flash, racing fans: by the year 2015, if not sooner, those grand traditions no longer will exist anyway.  By then, if CD, Pimlico, and Belmont Park don't have synthetic racing surfaces, my guess is they'll likely be condo developments!  And since we all know perfectly well that synthetic racing surfaces for these Triple Crown venues is a virtual certainty; and that these new surfaces will usher in a new era for the Triple Crown anyway; why not begin thinking and planning now how to bring the ENTIRE TRIPLE CROWN RACING PACKAGE into the 21^st century?

Already there are ideas being bandied about here that have been outstanding.  The Shark started the ball rolling with his "Deficate or Vacate the Throne" edict to NYRA to take the rubber off the  bankroll and pony-up for the first time in 20 years.  That's a great idea for the next three weeks.  For posterity ... indeed, for prosperity ... it's a band-aid.  Perfume on a pig.  The whole damn package needs to be brought into the 21^st century.  The time between races.  The distances.  The purse money.  The marketing.  The kind of package that racing would create if the Triple Crown didn't exist, and instead was a brand new concept. 

Who knows, maybe this is something we can table as a group project for next year, and convince JP to run as a Big Blog Pages' feature in the 2008 Derby Preview issue.

Octave-the-Rave

In a stunningly frank review, the normally reserved and diplomatic Randy Moss leveled some of the sharpest criticism of his career at jockey Mario Pino for his ride in the Preakness Stakes this past Saturday on Hard Spun.  Following is an excerpt of that review:

"Despite grueling early fractions, Mario Pino, the jockey aboard Hard Spun, chose to use his horse even before the half mile marker.  When Hard Spun flew alongside leaders Exchanger and Flying First Class, Pino momentarily threw on the brakes in what seemed to be a moment of indecision, but by that point, the damage already had been done.  Pino indicated afterwards that the move was dictated by the advance of C.P. West to his outside, but making such a premature move in a race of this caliber was tactical suicide, and not a wise choice."

Excerpted from Randy Moss' isolated video review of The Preakness Stakes from NTRA's new series Stretch Drive  -  Friday, May 25, 2007

To watch Stretch Drive in its entirety, go to http://www.ntra.com/.

Rave

To me, the debate on Pino's ride in the Preakness is so much more complex and intriguing than the debate on Borel they don't even belong in the same stratosphere.  Having said that, it only took 20 viewings from every conceivable angle and some quality discussion with a few of my really smart buds to finally understand what happened.

I'm pretty sure when you read this, you'll agree.  After that, the final judgment v. Pino's ride will rest squarely with each individual horse player's comfort level with his approach to the game.

First an important prelude.  Before I finally got it, I kept going back to the observations of the two men perhaps more qualified than any to voice a "learned opinion" in this debate: Tom Durkin and Dave Rodman, who between them have called close to 100,000 horse races.  Race callers fly by the seat of their pants.  Their reactions are unrehearsed; come in real-time; and have no frame of reference beyond that which their vast experience tells them is the accepted norm.  I ask that you keep that phrase firmly in mind, since it lies squarely at the heart of this debate.

What's so intriguing about the two race calls is that Durkin and Rodman began this sequence at exactly the same point in their race call, wound-up by its conclusion at exact polar opposite ends of the field, yet had remarkably similar reactions.

Durkin already had completed his first position call of the entire field, had rejoined and re-announced the two leaders, but chose at that point to interrupt his call in order to give the ¼ and ½ mile splits.  (Track Announcers get those splits from the infield tote board, just like we do when we're at the track.  Typically, a TA will lower his binoculars an inch, read the board over his glasses, quickly re-engage the binoculars, and pick-up the field again.)  The instant Durkin re-engaged his glasses, Pino moved, and Durkin's voice shot-up 10 octaves when he blurted, "And there goes Hard Spun.  Hard Spun makes an early and aggressive move for the lead."

Early and aggressive!  Hmmmmm ... hardly the language a veteran race caller uses every day.  Hardly the "accepted norm."

Rodman also had completed his first position call of the entire field, quickly checked the tote board, caught the 1^st quarter split, announced it, re-engaged the binocs, and began his second complete pass through the entire field, at which point he and Durkin were mirroring each other's timing.  After reconfirming the two leaders, Rodman comes back to Hard Spun and opines, "Hard Spun gets a bit of a nudge to go on, but is gliding comfortably along at this point in the race."

What does that suggest to you coming from a seasoned announcer, given "the accepted norm" premise?  Does it not suggest that the "nudge" was an indication - as Rodman perceived it -- that Pino was riding smart and being careful to maintain his ultra-golden, garden spot two lengths behind the leaders, yet two lengths clear of his pursuers, and nothing more than that?

If you listen to Rodman's call from this point through his second complete call of the entire field, it is both comical and electric.  At almost the exact instant Hard Spun goes out of Rodman's field of vision, "The Move" commences, and Rodman is totally oblivious to what's happening.  While the rest of the entire racing world was glued to Hard Spun and Pino, Rodman calmly was focusing instead on each individual member of the remaining field behind him, exactly as he should have been as a solid, professional announcer.  By the time Rodman had gone through his second, complete position call and was done with Circular Quay, "The Move" was over, and Hard Spun was out there by himself.  The only person on the racing planet who still didn't know was Dave Rodman, and when he found out, his reaction was an all-time classic.  All he could do was scream,

"HARD SPUNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN!

The reason that was all he could do is because most race tracks do not take kindly to their Announcer screaming:

"WHAT THE F**K JUST HAPPENNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNED!

Accepted norm?  Hardly!  Rodman fully expected that Hard Spun would be precisely where he had last left him, and that he - Rodman - had plenty enough time to calmly cover the remainder of the field for the bettors, and still be back on the lead pack in ample time to catch and announce Hard Spun's move to the lead for the on-track audience.

You know why he thought that?  Because like Durkin, Rodman wasn't calling The Preakness.  He was calling the 12^th race on a Saturday card at Pimlico!  Period.  No affectations.  No pre-planned special calls.  No more attention to some horses and less on others.  When those gates sprung open, professional experience took over, and for Durkin and Rodman, the Preakness became just another horse race until they turned for home and the crowd took over. 

Only, when was the last time YOU saw a jockey in a normal, everyday horse race make a move even remotely close to the one Pino made on Hard Spun in The Preakness?  Whenever that was, clearly it was a lot more recent than Durkin and Rodman, whose very similar reaction of shock is extremely telling coming from two guys who have seen it all, and whom one would think are impossible anymore to shock.

In my mind, these two very similar reactions leave no doubt that Pino's move wasn't just unusual, but in fact extremely rare.  Once you accept that premise as inarguable, then the real debate can begin: Was it the right move or the wrong move?  And by right or wrong, I mean only this: did it give Hard Spun the best chance to win The Preakness Stakes?  At the heart of that answer also lies the mystery of what kind of horse player each of us really is.

For me, it clearly was the WRONG move, and I would have made that determination the instant it occurred.  I know that sounds like redboarding ... playing "results" ... and armchair quarterbacking.  It is none of those things.  It is only and exactly my unwavering belief that the decision Pino made with Hard Spun is one he never even would have considered in 99.95 percent of the 40,000+ other races he's ridden throughout his career, and that alone made it questionable.  Had this been an every day horse race, Pino would have been patient, because like all veteran riders, he knows full-well that patience wins more horse races than every other attribute, quality, skill, and technique combined. 

Combined! 

Would the dead speed have backed into him?  Maybe.  Would C.P. West have trapped him down on the heavy part of the track?  Maybe.  Might he have been forced to check and steady for so long that by the time he got clear the race was beyond him?  Maybe.  But this is what happens in horse racing every single day.  Just because a jock does the right thing doesn't mean he always gets the right result.  For a horse like Hard Spun who had as easy a time of it on the lead in the Derby as any horse in recent memory for three-quarters, yet could manage no better than a pedestrian :51.0 for his final half mile, Pino's pre-eminent, definitive, overriding, and single-minded objective in order to give Hard Spun his best chance to win HAD to be patience.  To get his horse to relax ... to conserve as much energy as possible ... and wait as long as he possibly could, even if it meant having the rest of the field crawling-up his crotch ... before unleashing Hard Spun's blinding speed ... and then hoping the wire got there before the blue-and-yellow bullet train.

Amazingly, that very race was served-up in his lap.  Perhaps not like room service on a silver platter, but pretty darn close.  And he chose instead a path of least resistance.  He felt the walls closing-in and made a mad dash for the open door.  He played it safe.  In short, he did the least remarkable thing he could do at such a time.

The question each of us might want to ask ourselves in retrospect is this: had Pino waited, gotten trapped, been forced to check and steady, and Hard Spun had managed to run no better than third, would we have been screaming mad afterwards, and openly critical of him for having made a terrible ride?

If the answer to that question is a genuine and sincere "No," then whether you win or lose, you can take solace everyday in knowing you ply your avocation at a level most of your contemporaries never will approach.

Octave-the-Rave

I still had two nagging questions about the Preakness, so I went back last night and spent some quality time analyzing the isolated and overhead replays.  If you haven't, there's some really great stuff you're missing.  In the process, I discovered some things you may find interesting about two of three still-raging, post-Preakness debates - the "Goggles Mystery" and "Pino's Ride" -- mindful that Jeremy is devoting much of his "Countdown" entry tomorrow to the third and by far the most vocal and heated of these controversies, Calvin's ride on Street Sense.

Here, then, is PART I of two parts, with a caveat that PART II on Pino's ride was really fun to write, and hopefully will help you discover, and it helped me reaffirm, what kind of horse player I truly am.

The Borel Goggles Mystery

DOINK!  Sorry, no mystery at all.  Simple, albeit unfortunate, agronomy. 

First, the speculation over at the DRF blogsite and elsewhere that Borel "miscounted," or changed his normal pre-race set-up v. the number of goggles he normally wears.  In the lead-up to the Preakness on NBC, Borel and Street Sense's Derby performance was featured prominently.  Two shots in particular are of note.  In the first, he is getting instructions from Nafzger prior to the Derby.  Freeze the footage, and clearly you can count four, individual sets of goggles on his racing helmet.  Freeze his celebration at the wire, and you'll note three sets of goggles bouncing beneath his chin.  The last set, which he's still wearing, are so clean you can see his eyes through them.  Remember, the track at CD was bone-dry that day. 

Prior to the Preakness, once again you can count four individual sets of goggles on Borel's racing helmet.  The "miscounted/changed" speculation is pure nonsense, as is any mystery.  If you have the NBC coverage on TIVO, check-out Bob Neumeyer's interview with Borel immediately following the race.  Once again, Borel's goggles are neatly stacked atop his racing helmet.  You'll recall it began raining @ Pimlico shortly before saddling, or about 30 minutes before post.  The effects of that rain on the top layer of Pimlico's racing surface clearly can be seen during Neumeyer's interview with Borel.  Mindful that Street Sense trailed all but one horse for most of the race; raced almost exclusively in the one and two paths until turning for home; and passed every single one of those horses he earlier had run behind; it makes sense that no other horse/rider in the race got more "kick-back" during the running than SS & Borel. 

Unfortunately for both, what was "kicking-back" was the worst possible mixture for horse and rider on a dirt track: mud!  In simplest terms, "kick-back" comes in three varieties: dirt (dry), mud (moist), and sludge (wet).  Bone dry dirt completely repels off goggles.  Really wet dirt, or sludge, mostly repels off goggles, since it's mostly water, and even the muddy residue left behind barely impairs visibility.  Not mud!  Mud goes nowhere after it hits.  It sticks!  To everything, in big giant globs, including skin, and especially glass (lexan).  To solve this "goggles mystery," you need simply go now (and with many thanks for the wonderful Editorial assistance) to Lady Horseplayer-2's latest photoblog entry; take a good, close look at Borel's top-set of goggles; then try to imagine what it must feel like to be going 40 MPH on a 1,000 pound racehorse, surrounded by other 1,000 pound racehorses, while wearing a blindfold! 

To me, it's just one less reason for criticizing Calvin Borel, and one more for elevating Street Sense's performance to among the best ever in the event's 132 year history; and with it, Curlin's as well.

Octave-the-Rave

Speaking of the Breeders' Cup, about 6 months ago ... actually ... 6 months, 18 days, 19 hours and 12 minutes ago, I got talked into ... check that ... I got mortally brow-beaten into not singling Ouija Board on our Big Pick 6 Ticket on Breeders' Cup Day by a fellow blogger.  Instead, when it came down to the bloody last cut on the final round at the very end of an exhausting handicapping seminar with my buds, we were left only with Round Pound and Mauralakana, and one absolutely HAD to go, in fact it was I who lobbied loudest in favor of the little French tart whose name I later would discover loosely translates in English into "Queen of the Pain!" 

No s**t!  You have no idea.  The pain, I mean.  The public canings and verbal muggings I have endured for that monumental faux pas ever since.  And rightfully so, I might add.

Then again, perhaps I'm being a TAD overly dramatic.  The fact is, I did kind of like her all week; had made a nice bet on here in the QEII three weeks earlier when she was tons the best and just missed; and might have ... might have, mind you ... lost my marbles all on my own that fateful night, without any help. 

However, as it turned out, help v. the little French Tart was something I got lots of that week. LOTS ... as in paragraphs.  Pages.  Chapters.  Even volumes!  By the time Saturday rolled around, I was hearing Maurakaf****nlana in my sleep!

Well, lo and behold, you'll never guess who finally broke her American racing cherry in today's 6th race at Churchill Downs? 

Dat same little French crème puff, da Queen O' Pain! 

I figured I better hurry-up and announce her coronation on these pages since she looked extremely impressive in winning.  So impressive, in fact, I was fearful a certain young handicapping maven on here might begin beating the proverbial gong about her "triumphant return today," and hallucinating yet again about her "indubitable reappearance once again come October on racing's grandest stage!" 

Not that I would ever wish to disparage nor dissuade anyone's unbridled enthusiasm for a potential Cup contestant, you understand? I just thought it worth mentioning in passing that in the case of this particular potential Cup contestant, dadadadadadadadadadadadon't even friggen think about it yet, OK?

Rave

K-Man, to agree with your buddy Mr. Shandler on loyalty is admirable.  I can't imagine what possessed you to agree with him in principle, since I don't believe that you actually believe that bulls**t you wrote.  You can't.  I've been reading you, Wing, and Shandler religiously since Jeremy joined you at the NTRA, and when it comes to breadth and depth of racing acumen, those guys can't carry your fungo.  (Look it up, kids!)  For example, Mr. Wing told everyone during Derby week that paying attention to how the participants worked and galloped in the days leading-up to a big race was a waste of time!  And Mr. Shandler believes Pino's ride on Hard Spun in the Preakness was flawless!

It just doesn't add up.

That said, there is no one in the game whose opinion and acumen I respect more than Jeremy Plonk's.  No one.  As such, I gladly will defer to him to explain to you and your buddy on Friday that which is so clearly lost on Mr. Shandler, and I suspect far less on you, v. Calvin Borel's ride on Street Sense in the Preakness.

In the meantime, there's another important point concerning Mr. Shandler's choice of subject matter that I feel strongly needs to be addressed. 

FTR, I found-out about this piece early yesterday morning in a phone call from my brother in Louisville.  His exact words were, " ... it's all the talk this morning!"  By now, I'm sure it has been all over the jock's room at CD.  As you know, many of today's riders have laptops and spend a great deal of time between races on-line.  One in particular lives on horse racing sites, including this one, and he happens to be a key member of the Cajun Mafia.  For sure Calvin and Robbie will see it, as will most of the CD riding colony.  So will Mr. Tafel and Mr. Nafzger, if they haven't already, as will Steve A. and the entire Curlin Crew.  Mr. Shandler's piece denigrates them all, for reasons I trust do not need to be explained to you in any detail.

But what's makes this piece particularly egregious ... what's so staggeringly lost on your buddy ... is the banner under which he expressed those ill-advised opinions, and the weight it carries in the racing world.  Do you think this piece would have garnered a noseeum's a-hole worth of attention had I written it?  Or Mr. Queen?  Or Snookie the Bookie on Dan Illman's DRF formblog?

K-Man, my family has been in this game for more than 40 years, and when push comes to shove, even I grudgingly will acknowledge that the National Thoroughbred Racing Association is the closest thing our sport has to a national ruling body.  For millions of racing fans far less experienced than I, the NTRA IS the face of American racing; and ANY opinion expressed exclusively under that banner carries with it not only their tacit approval, but also the tremendous influence of that organization. 

Consider this.  I also sent a note to Mr. Shandler expressing my displeasure, in my own name, and under my own, personal e-mail.  He wrote back as follows:

"Chill-out, Bud.  I expressed my opinion, and hundreds agree with me!"

Oh yeah?  Well, here's what I know.  No one who knows squat about the game agrees with him, nor gives two shitz about his sour-grapes, armchair quarterbacking.  I assure you, none of those folks were on Shandler's List. 

Instead, those "hundreds" about whom he proudly boasts are a fraction of the hundreds, maybe even thousands, of relative newcomers to the game who are still feeling their way, still acutely impressionable, and by far the most likely to swallow such garbage as hard-core fact.  Don't take my word for it.  Peruse Dan Illman's formblog.  It's a veritable DayCare Center for racing's Diaper Dandies, and Calvin-bashing was the pabulum de jour yesterday.  Oddly, no one ... not a soul ... even broached the subject on Monday.  It only came-up in the wake of your buddy's piece.  Now, maybe that's just a bizarre coincidence.  Personally, I don't believe in coincidences.  I believe in cause and effect.  Something, or someone, pushed their button, and what more likely candidate than a perceived authorized representative of the NTRA?

More to the point, K-Man, our sport has been buried up to its hair-plugs in controversy and misfortune virtually this entire Century.  From the heartbreak of Ghostzapper, Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, St. Liam, and Barbaro; to the inexplicable spike in fatalities last year; to the horror and mayhem of the Breeders' Cup; to the scandals and lawsuits and in-fighting seemingly at every turn.  So much mayhem and misfortune, in fact, that the sport finds itself today teetering on the precipice of irrelevance. 

Then ... out of nowhere ... like a blast of nuclear energy ... comes the Preakness, and perhaps the single, greatest horserace in the past 20 years; and, as well, a potential rivalry the likes of which the sport hasn't seen since Sunday Silence and Easy Goer - horses many of today's new generation of racing fans know only in legend and lore.  But for a nose, it would have been perfect.  Even still, look at the wonder and enthusiasm it inspired in a fellow old warhorse like Judge Whitey, never mind The Hoarse Horseplayer and Mr. Queen - two of the three most cynical sumbiches in the history of the BB Pages? 

Truly ... magically ... almost mystically ... the kind of day in the spotlight for which the sport of racing literally has been praying for years.

And what, again, did your buddy Mr. Shandler choose to devote his post-greatest-race-in-the-last-20-years NTRA bylined blog to? 

Jockey f**king error?

You defend him, K-Man.  I got squirrels in my backyard who can pick the lock on their nut bucket with more insight than this guy.

Octave-the-Rave

It's pissing down rain here ... my internet access (BOMBCAST!) is down again ... and, well you get the picture.  Ergo, some more musings!

First off, many thanks to McKinvasor (do ya love it, or wot?), The Ghost, and Mr. Q. for the comments on Mr. Shandler.  (I wonder what Joey the K.'s gonna say about me ragging the dog out of his NTRA teammate?  Should be interesting!)

Did yawl catch this:

"NBC cut away from its coverage of a National Hockey League playoff game to begin the Preakness broadcast as scheduled at 5 p.m. The game, which drew a 1.2 overnight rating, had gone into overtime and had not concluded."

I thought I heard this on Sports Center ... or Mike & Mike ... but didn't catch the follow-up.  Is that unbelievable, or wot?  A Stanley Cup Playoff game -- in OT, no less -- for horse racing?  Excuse me?  ESPN wouldn't cut-away from a friggen' WNBA game last year, yet that's whom the Breeders' Cup chose to sign-on with for the next 10 years?  Geez, what were thinking about, anyway?  Giant KUDOS to the boyz @ NBC-TV!

Lemme axe yawl something.  If an NFL quarterback in a Super Bowl went ... say ... 19-for-19 for three touchdown passes, the last of which brought the game to over time; and in his first possession in OT, he threw a perfect swing pass that hit the receiver in the hands, and before the receiver could put the ball away, a blitzing DB made a remarkable, once-in-a-lifetime play, wrestled the ball from his grasp, and returned it for a touchdown to end the game ... would you not think anyone who chose to criticize the QB in that spot ... or worse, even label him a "choker" ... would you not think such a person a certified moron? 

You cannot believe the idiocy being written on Dan Illman's formblog at the DRF about Calvin Borel "choking" this past Saturday.  About him being a "second-rate," "less-than-elite" rider.  I'm reading this s**t thinking, "Have you people been under a rock, or wot?"  I'm SURE I'm old enough to be most of these nitwits' daddy, and in my lifetime - with the possible exception of Pat Day's ride on Timber Country in the 1995 Preakness - I can't remember even one ride in a Grade 1 event better than EITHER of Borel's in the BC Juvy or the Kentucky Derby.  It's just unbelievable how many morons there are in our sport; nor how comforting to know they all hang-out somewhere else!  I mean, we all have our occasional brain farts, but these folks are clean-the-plugged-in-and-turned-on-electric-razor-under-water ignorant!

Speaking of Borel, check this out.  In 1917, the English-bred colt Omar Khayham became the first foreign-bred horse ever to win The Kentucky Derby with a daring, up-the-wood rally to nip Chambourg by a nose. 

Omar Khayham was ridden by none other than C. Borel!

I axe ya, baby: where else can you get this kind of cocktail party fodder but on The Big Blog Pages?

Ciao Blackberry!

Do me a favor, all ... PLEASE: go read this now, then come on back here.

http://www.ntra.com/blog.aspx?blogid=8&year=2007&month=5&day=21

I'm fuming.  What would possess anyone in the wake of one of the best horse races in recent memory to devote his NATIONAL RACING PLATFORM to something negative?  That's reason enough for this guy to be sent to the woodshed.  But jockey error???????

Simple question, folks: did not Calvin Borel move at EXACTLY the same point in the race he did in the BC Juvies, the TB Derby, and the Kentucky Derby, and that strategy produced three wins in three attempts, two by daylight?  But wait.  Shandler wanted him to CHANGE that strategy?  Shandler wanted him to wait longer?  Worse ... really, really worse ... Shandler's calling Borel a less-than-elite rider for not changing that strategy.  Less than elite?  The guy who single-handedly had carved-out the three greatest trips on any horse in racing history prior to Saturday, and in my opinion, did it again in the Preakness?

This might be ... no ... this IS ... the worst case of armchair quarterbacking I can recall in a lifetime of racing.  If you agree, please take the time to respond to Mr. Shandler, since he's "dying to hear from you!"

Perhaps next time, he'll spend 30 seconds thinking about his subject matter before losing his friggen' mind in print.

Thanks ...

Rave

For the record, that "ringing in your ears" you hear every time you access Horseplayerdaily.com isn't some Preakness hangover.  It's Jeremy's phone ringing off the hook from new advertisers. 

And well they should.

Hyperbole aside, when I tell you the Preakness analysis posted here on the Big Blog Pages TOWERS OVER anything in cyberspace, I am not exaggerating.  But even that pales in comparison to Jeremy's post race coverage from the participants listed on the home page @ Preakness Post-Race Coverage, here.  It is phenomenal, and to my knowledge, can be found no where else in one place, en toto, in all of cyberspace.  The best the DRF can dream of doing tomorrow is rehashing yesterday's news, and I'd bet a dollar to a dead chicken they don't get a fraction of what we already have.

Ladies and gentlemen ... boys and girls ... pull-up your chairs.  What you're about to read is going to blow you away.  It comes compliments of the Gentleman Diplomat of the Big Blog Pages, Caesar's Ghost, whose query "How Good?" inspired this piece.  I thought the question perfectly valid, so I did some research.  What I discovered was nothing short of mind boggling.

By way of explanation, what follows are the running breakdowns of the five fastest Preakness Stakes ever run prior to Saturday's, along with the INDIVIDUAL QUARTER TIMES of each winner, and the chart lead-line for each winner.  Next are the identical figures for our three most recent Triple Crown winners, and their chart lead-lines. Following that are the identical figures for Street Sense and Curlin.

BOLDED below are the fastest individual quarters and/or final times ever run in Preakness history.

*******************************************

TANK'S PROSPECT (1985):   :22 2/5;  :45 1/5;  1:09 2/5;  1:34 1/5;  1:53 2/5.

By quarters:  :22 2/5;  :22 4/5;  :24 1/5;  :24 4/5;  :19 1/5.

Tank's Prospect took the lead during the final strides. Chief's Crown held the lead through the stretch. All fractional times up to three-quarter pole set by Eternal Prince. Tank's Prospect established a track record.

LOUIS QUATORZE (1996):   :23.0;  :46 1/5;  1:09 4/5;  1:34 2/5;  1:53 2/5.

By quarters:  :23.0;  :23 1/5;  :23 3/5;  :24 3/5;  :19.0.

Louis Quatorze quickly gained the lead and set all the fractions; over a drying out track termed fast, tying Tank's Prospect's track record.

GATE DANCER (1984):   :22 2/5;  :45 1/5;  1:09 1/5;  1:34 2/5;  1:53 3/5.

By quarters:  :22 2/5;  :22 4/5;  :24.0;  :25 1/5;  :19 1/5.

Gate Dancer gained lead entering stretch. All fractional times up to three-quarter pole set by Fight Over.

SUMMER SQUALL (1990):   :23 1/5;  :47.0;  1 :10 4/5;  1:35 3/5;  1:53 3/5.

By quarters:  :23 1/5;  :23 4/5;  :23 4/5;  :24 4/5;  :18.0.

Summer Squall, never worse than fourth after a quarter, moved swiftly on the inside nearing the stretch and ran the last three sixteenths in 18 sec­onds, a Preakness record.

SUNDAY SILENCE (1989):   :23 2/5;  :46 2/5;  1:09 3/5;  1:34 1/5; 1:53 4/5.

By quarters:  :23 2/5;  :23.0;  :23 1/5;  :24 3/5;  :19 3/5.

Sunday Silence raced in third position down the backstretch. He was passed by Easy Goer near the end of the backstretch but rallied to gain a brief advantage at the top of the stretch.  Easy Goer and Sunday Silence fought nose to nose through the final eighth with Sunday Silence winning by a nose in the final stride.

************************************************

SECRETARIAT (1973):   :24 2/5;  :48 1/5;  1:11 2/5;  1:35 3/5;  1:54 2/5.

By quarters :24 2/5;  :23 4/5;  :23 1/5;  :24 1/5;  :18 4/5.

Secretariat took the lead at 1/2 mile pole, and was hand-ridden rest of way. Quarter mile time set by Ecole Etage. Due to a malfunction of the timer, Secretariat's time was later adjusted to 1.54 2⁄5 after an initial posting of 1:55. Daily Racing Form clockers timed Secretariat in 1:53 2⁄5, a time which equals the record shared by Tank's Prospect and Louis Quatorze.

SEATTLE SLEW (1977):   :22 3/5; :45 3/5; 1:09 4/5; 1:34 4/5; 1:54 2/5.

By quarters :22 3/5; :23.0; :24 1/5; :25.0; :19 3/5.

Seattle Slew and Cormorant battled heads apart for lead for six furlongs. Record time for one mile was set by Seattle Slew.

AFFIRMED (1978):   :23 3/5; :47 3/5; 1:11 4/5; 1:36 1/5; 1:54 2/5.

By quarters:   :23 3/5;  :24.0;  :24 1/5;  :24 2/5;  :18 1/5.

Affirmed gained lead on first turn, and held it throughout.

  *******************************************************

CURLIN (2007):   :22 4/5;  45 2/5;  1:09 4/5;  1:34 3/5;  1:53 2/5

By quarters:  :24 3/5;  :23.0;  :23 1/5;  :23 2/5;  :18 4/5

STREET SENSE (2007):   :22 4/5;  45 2/5;  1:09 4/5;  1:34 3/5;  1:53 2/5

By quarters:  :25 2/5;  :22 4/5;  :23 3/5;  :22 4/5;  :18 4/5

************************************************

As you can see by the bolded fractions above, Curlin and Street Sense either equaled or broke the existing Preakness record for three of the five fastest fractions ever run in the 132 year history of the event, and as well equaled the fastest final time ever.

More stunning still, in the previous 132 year history of the event, only one horse - the great Nashua in 1955 - ever ran the fourth quarter mile in under :24.0, with an official clocking of :23 4/5.  Curlin's fourth quarter fraction of :23 2/5 was 2/5ths of a second faster than the great Nashua. And all Street Sense did was run that fourth fraction 3/5ths of a second faster than Curlin - meaning Street Sense's fourth quarter in this previous Saturday's Preakness was a mind-boggling ONE FULL SECOND FASTER THAN ANY PREVIOUS FOURTH QUARTER FRACTION in Preakness history!

Most astonishing, perhaps, is this: in the 132 year history of the Preakness, only three horses ever have run the middle, three, ¼ mile fractions EACH IN UNDER :24.0 SECONDS. 

Their names are NASHUA, STREET SENSE, and CURLIN!

How good?  How good, indeed ...

Octave-the-Rave

AUTHOR'S NOTE - Research material provided by: http://www.preakness.com/NR/rdonlyres/ABEFF33C-DED7-4957-A8F5-CDA609F4F771/0/FastestPreaknessTimes.pdf

Didja notice today's Daily Racing Form?

That the DRF has become a national embarrassment, and less-than-a-shell of its former self under Steven Crist, was never more evident than in today's edition.  As we all know, the DRF months ago cut-back its staff payroll and live racing coverage from seven days to five, such that Sunday and Monday's edition essentially have become one and the same.  At the same time, they increased the price of the Form for the fourth time under Steven Crist.  Now, you would have thought, would you not, that on the weekend of the Preakness Stakes, the DRF would have provided some additional coverage following the event, seeing as though it is the sport's Turf Authority?  For the record, of the eight lead stories in today's edition, five are Preakness related.  Mindful that today is May 21^st, their posting dates are as follows:

May 19th - 6:03 pm; May 19th - 6:04 pm; May 19th - 7:51 pm; May 19th - 7:58 pm; and May 19th - 8:08 pm.

Not a single post-race interview.  Not a single update on any of the horse's conditions coming-out of the race on Sunday.  No word of who's going to the Belmont and who isn't.  Not even any in depth analysis of the race itself.  Presumably, all that will come on Tuesday, fully three days following the event.  Do you know of any other newspaper on the planet that could wait three full days AFTER AN EVENT to cover it in depth, and still stay in business?  Racing's Turf Authority? Gimme a break!

Didja notice D. Wayne?  Again?

You might recall in an earlier blog about last year's Derby how puzzled I was trying to find a filly in the Kentucky Oaks to use with Barbaro.  After hitting the idiot button, I made some extra doubles with D. Wayne Lucas' filly, Ex Caelis.  My reasoning, I thought, was pretty sound: with no entry in The Kentucky Derby for the first time in over a decade, it meant Lucas could devote his entire attention to this filly in the days and weeks leading-up to The Oaks.  For the record, Ex Caelis ran for about seven-eighths of a mile, was pulled-up, eased, and is listed in the official 2006 Oaks Chart as "DNF."  For the second year in a row, Mr. Lucas had no Derby entry, and only the filly Grace Happens on whom to concentrate in The Kentucky Oaks.  Grace Happens ran for about three-quarters of a mile, was pulled-up, eased, and is listed in the official 2007 Oaks Chart as "DNF."  In The Preakness yesterday, Mr. Lucas completed the hat trick when Flying First Class ran for about three-quarters of a mile, plummeted quickly to the back of the pack, and finished dead last, beaten 30 lengths.

Rest well, Mr. Lewis!

Didja notice Hard Spun's action?

If you get a chance, watch a replay either of the Derby or the Preakness, and check-out Hard Spun's action.  Then take look at his pedigree: Danzig by a Turkoman mare!  I'd love to see Larry Jones gives this horse a much-deserved 8-10 week break, then make his return on grass.  If he takes to it as his pedigree indicates he should, might there be faster horse on the planet for a mile on the weeds than Hard Spun?

Didja notice Mario Pino?  Some, apparently, did not.

Re Pino's ride on Hard Spun, here's a suggestion: http://www.ntra.com/content.aspx?type=news&id=25483.

Watch it and listen.  Listen to Rodman's pointed observation that, "Hard Spun gets a bit of a nudge to go on!"  A bit of a nudge?  Why?  He was in nirvana!  A rider's dream spot!  The Garden of friggen' Eden: smack dab in the middle of a five length gap between a couple of rats and his real adversaries.  Why do anything?  Why go anywhere?  Why not be patient and let the race come to you?  But clearly the telling indication that Pino panicked and moved too soon - AND KNEW IT - was when he circled wide of Flying First Class.  PAY ATTENTION, and what you'll notice is Pino literally stand-up in the saddle and throttle-down Hard Spun for damn near 150 yards, when the only horse running at him was CP West, and Curlin and Street Sense were still 8-10 lengths behind!  Pino panicked, plain and simple.  The tape couldn't be clearer on that critical point. Whether the outcome would have been any different is speculation, and meaningless fodder.

Also, I have a tremendously heightened sense of admiration for the acumen of many of my fellow bloggers on here following this past Saturday's events.  Perhaps a year removed from the ridiculous comparisons of Bernardini to Barbaro has raised the bar, and provided the impetus for more knowing insight.  Whatever the case, the recent recaps of the Preakness have been a joy to read.  More to the point, anyone who watched the events of Saturday who still does not believe that Street Sense and Curlin are exceptional animals - not just good, but EXCEPTIONAL - I fear has very little to look forward to in this game.

Granted, Street Sense looks more like a donkey than a race horse, and perhaps that is why some purists still doubt his true ability.  Looks aside, his turn of foot is nothing short of breath taking.  Take a good look at the quarter splits listed in Silver Charm's exceptional post, particularly the FOURTH, which I had for Street Sense at .22.4!  And he did that mostly on the turn!  While weaving in and out of traffic!  Those are Damascus numbers.  Dr. Fager numbers.  Indeed, Secretariat numbers.  But even if you didn't know the time, how anyone can spend a good portion of his life watching and wagering on race horses, and NOT recognize what he saw Saturday from Street Sense as exceptional is beyond me. 

As mind boggling as that is, not recognizing Curlin as an exceptional talent is just plain inexplicable.  Physically, he's the closest thing I've seen to Barbaro as a 3YO in my lifetime.  And despite all this garbage you might be reading about how Robbie "got him to settle" from know-nothing mopes who -- if they even watched the race, had no idea what they were watching - instead, go back and watch the replay yourself, then tell me when in your lifetimes outside of European grass racing you've seen ANY horse, of any age, get ridden and ridden hard almost the entirety of a 1 3/16^th mile race come back after being passed in the stretch to win?  And Street Sense never stopped running.  Curlin, somehow, simply dug down, found another gear, and ran faster.

As Charm pointed-out, "normal" horses do not do this.  Nor do they run the final turn in a two-turn race in under 23 seconds.  Perhaps the best judge of just how good Street Sense and Curlin truly were prior to Saturday turns-out to be Michael Matz.  As high as I was on Chelokee prior to the Derby, he isn't in the same zip code as either Street Sense or Curlin.  I suspect that's why Mr. Matz's reaction to his victory in the Barbaro Stakes was so subdued, even before the big boys put on their show.  He knew at once that Chelokee still has miles to go before even thinking of running with these two truly exceptional animals.

I, too, pray they all stay happy and healthy for the remainder of the year.  Given the abject rats that permeate the American Handicap Division, Lords knows we need them to show-up come October.

Octave-the-Rave

It occurs to me that if post position draws for the Kentucky Derby were made in order of Graded earnings, instead of some completely idiotic, made-for-TV lottery, we very well may have seen an entirely different Derby.  Perhaps not a different outcome, but almost certainly a different race.

That Curlin ran one of the most remarkable horse races in modern memory no doubt will be well-chronicled in the days ahead.  Since I had him nine ways from Sunday and no one else, I watched him exclusively from start to finish.  Frankly, I thought he had no chance going down the backside.  In my lifetime, I can't remember a horse being ridden so hard, so early in a two-turn race, who didn't stop like he was shot.  Instead, he just kept finding more gears.  The four-wide move on the turn to blow by the field was just remarkable.  For me, the biggest shock was seeing Street Sense come flying to his inside.  At first, I thought it had to be Circular Quay.  Street Sense was so washed-out in the paddock and throughout the post parade, and the rail was so dead all day, I couldn't imagine him firing again like he did in the Derby, especially on the deep part of the track.  He is an amazing animal, with an electrifying turn of foot every bit as breath-taking as Barbaro and Afleet Alex.  That Curlin was able to run him down in the final strides speaks volumes to how important jockeys truly are in big-time races.  For someone who long has believed that the fine art of FORCING horses to change leads in the stretch is all-but-lost on this new generation of know-nothing, circle-wide-and-stick race rider, watching Albarado literally wrestle a still green-as-grass and learning Curlin over to his right lead at the 1/8th pole was a joy in itself.  That he still had enough left in the tank to run down Street Sense was truly amazing after the race he already had run.

Perhaps the most astonishing aspect of all was the ride Mario Pino put on Hard Spun.  Frankly, I hope it gets down-played in the media, since no good can come of it for a guy who has been one of the great credits to the game, and a local legend in Maryland.  Already, the early recaps of the race are referring to a "tiring Hard Spun" running third.  That's not what I saw.  I saw a horse still running his guts out through the lane, after one of the most premature, completely unnecessary, and circuitous early moves in a Classic race in modern memory.  I already have watched the replay a couple of times, and for the life of me, I have no idea what he was thinking, nor why he did what he did.  Ditto, Mr. Durkin, which is why he remains by 10 times the greatest race caller in the game.  The shock in his voice was unmistakable.  Unfortunately for Hard Spun, it appears to be yet another case of "what might have been."  He, too, is a much better race horse than I gave him credit.

It will be interesting to see if Hard Spun and Street Sense move on to the Belmont.  That Curlin is going is a no-brainer, assuming he comes out of the Preakness OK.  He is still a baby, and as Clocker-1 has believed from the first time he laid eyes on him, only going to keep getting better, and potentially is one for the ages.  I hope Street Sense goes, although I fear Mr. Nafzger may choose to give him a much deserved rest.  Still, it was a great story while it lasted, especially for Calvin Borel.  It's easy to see why he is so beloved throughout the game.  I know there were a lot of hearts broken during the final 40 yards of this year's Preakness.

All in all, it was one of the best Preaknesses ever, and one of the best horse races since Sunday Silence and Easy Goer's duel almost 20 years ago.  One for the ages.

Octave-the-Rave

You might recall when the Dubai World Cup was run at the end of March of this year, Godolphin's usually powerhouse stable came into the event 3 for 44 for the year.  None of their 12 runners that day hit the board, with the biggest disappointment being their stable star Discreet Cat, who ran dead last.  Well, here it is almost two full moths later, and I just did some checking on the International Seven Stars competition.  Last year at this time, the leader had approximately 200 points, and would end the competition in November with 681.  Points are awarded as follows:

FTR, there are 36 "Bonus Races" throughout the six month competition, nine of which already have been run, and in almost all, Godolphin had multiple runners.  This is in addition to the slew of G1's, G2's, G3's and listed races throughout the world already run in which Godophin runners have competed, and -- again -- often, with multiple entries.

As of this morning, the International Competition Leader has a total of 50 points!  The leading "point-getter" for the whole stable is a Japanese-bred named Utopia, with a total of 20 points!  I submitted five entries with seven "first-team" horses and seven "back-ups" on each entry, and he (she?) wasn't among the 70 horses!

Godolphin's fall from grace has been one of the most sudden, staggering, and complete I can recall in my lifetime.  Having said that, I think this is FANTASTIC news for the Breeders' Cup, and maybe the best in its long history.  Beginning in 2001, HRH Sheikh MoMo used the events of 9/11, and his perceived "security" problems, as the perfect excuse to shine The Cup.  Despite all his posturing a year ago v. Discreet Cat, there was no way he was going to enhance the worldwide spotlight on the Breeders' Cup by lending to it for the day the world's hottest and most talked about race horse.  His sole and only motivation for shining the Breeders' Cup simply has been to enhance the worldwide status and prestige of his own baby, The Dubai World Cup.

Well, it looks like HRH MoMo has his ass in a giant sling.  His performance at this year's World Cup was nothing short of a global embarrassment for European racing in general, and his vaunted "Big Blue" racing stable in particular.  Worse, he made an egregious, albeit typically arrogant, error in judgment.  He was so confident that the $6M Dubai World Cup was a foregone conclusion with Discreet Cat, he held-out many of his more established runners in the earlier events in favor of second-tier "developing" horses, and many of them frankly were real stabs.  I can't even fathom what the pressure must have been like come BIG RACE time when he was a giant 0-fer on-the-board for the entire day, but D.C. ran like a horse with the weight of the world on his shoulders.

Why does all this bode well for the Breeders' Cup?  Elementary, my dear Watson: this year, he'll have no choice but to come, and likely in droves.  With almost nothing in the barn even remotely ready to compete Europe's most prestigious G1 Bonus races leading-up to the Cup, my guess is he'll switch his focus instead toward a major redemption in the Breeders' Cup.  And he does have some potential monsters in the barn in Measured Tempo, Dijeerr, Eastern Anthem, Mythical Kid, Abhisheka, Truly Royal, Strobilus, With Interest, and, of course, Discreet Cat.

Short of a stunning reversal of form over the next 90-120 days, it strikes me as entirely likely -- given Sheikh MoMo's massive ego -- that this year's Breeders' Cup will be the first in a decade to feature the world-famous Godolphin blue in massive numbers.

Octave-the-Rave

I'm assuming by now everyone has read Dean Beyer's latest pearl of wisdom in the DRF "predicting" Street Sense will have a horrible trip in The Preakness.  Just when I thought it was impossible for one horse's stars to get any more cosmically in line, comes now horse racing's resident Nostradoofus to predict his imminent demise!  For the unaware, Beyer's pre-Triple Crown and pre-Breeders' Cup forecasts dating back to Arazi in 1992 have made the cover of Sports Illustrated look like Holy Water from Lourdes by comparison.

Street Sense up-the-wood by five!  Again!  Zzzzzzzzzzzz ...

For my part, I will remain relatively unimpressed until this horse has been forced to prove he can overcome adversity, and still prevail.  What will it take to change my mind on Saturday?  Ohhhhh, something on the order of the following:

"Street Sense, after stumbling badly at the start and trailing early, steadily advanced up the rail to regain contact with the field nearing the far turn; ran-up on the heels of Circular Quay and steadied sharply; moved-out widest of all for a clear run on the turn and was advancing nicely when Flying First Class blew the turn and bolted, causing the rider on Street Sense to take-up sharply and duck to the inside, slamming into an advancing Circular Quay and knocking that one off stride; quickly managed to right himself at the 3/16ths pole; steadied again behind a tiring King of the Roxy, and after exchanging bumps while splitting CP West and Exchanger, fought clear and was gaining quickly on the two leaders when Hard Spun suddenly began to drift under left-hand urging forcing Curlin into Street Sense's path, at which point the rider once again took-up sharply, altered course, ducked sharply to the inside of the two leaders, and under intense right-hand urging, finished with remarkable energy to prevail by a nose."

Gimme that sumbich, or anything remotely close, and I'll be the first to admit IN GIANT PRINT he belongs in the same paragraph with the undefeated Barbaro, or the one-horrendous-ride-away from being a Triple Crown Champion, Afleet Alex.

Octave-the-Rave

Associated Press - LOUISVILLE, Ky. - All 20 horses entered in the Kentucky Derby on Saturday were cleared by the state's racing authority following post-race tests that revealed no presence of performance-enhancing drugs.  However, the winner, Street Sense, was discovered to have a small, hand-held type, solid gold and jewel-encrusted electrical device lodged in his anal cavity.  Upon closer inspection, the device bore a strange inscription in 24-carat, golf-leaf filament that read:

"To Calvin ... Good Luck ... Queenie!"

Upon questioning by state racing authorities, winning jockey Calvin Borel revealed that the device had been presented to him earlier in the day as a gift by the visiting Queen Mother, Elizabeth of England, and that he inadvertently still had it with him just prior to the call for "riders up" for the 133^rd Kentucky Derby.  Knowing the device was illegal, yet priceless, and not wishing to risk losing it, Borel said he passed it to Street Sense's groom with specific instructions to "stick it some place dark and safe where nobody can find it." 

With all the whirlwind activities following Street Sense's victory, Borel said he simply forgot about the priceless memento until notified of its discovery by State Racing officials.

According to Kentucky state authorities Harvey Nafzger, Myron Tafel, and Mary Louise Wilkes, the explanation was perfectly logical and acceptable.  Said an elated Borel following the hearing, "Oh cher, finding dat gift from Momma Queen made me cry like some lil' goil at da Acme Erster Bar the foist time her daddy make her pop dem crawfish head and suck da juice til dat mudbug eyeball cave in."

Additional reporting by Octave-the-Rave

We're all intelligent human beings on here, are we not?  I mean, none of us is the type we're likely ever to hear about getting ripped off in some telemarketing scam, or losing his home in some re-fi swindle, or any of those moron-exclusive, Guiness Book-gullible horror tales we read about everyday in USA Today, are we?  We're too smart for that.  We have way too much street sense, right?

Only, why is it that when it comes to our avocation, some of us are as clueless as a new born?  Literally!  Box-of-rocks gullible.  Could it be some far-flung romantic notion of days long passed we secretly yearn for in our hearts, and that causes our brain to go on S**t Street whenever we put fingers to keyboard?  If that's it, here's a news flash: THOSE DAYS ARE DEAD.  OUTTA HERE.  Back, back, back, back ....... GURN!  And never ... I repeat NEVER ... to return again.

So dead, in fact, for so long that if the "new" reality in racing were your son, he'd already be in Graduate School.  And being the good and faithful son he is, I feel certain he would sit you down lovingly and say, "Pop, get over it, willya?  Get a grip.  You're embarrassing me!"  Then in a calm but stern voice, he likely would break the following news to you:

1) That in your unborn grandchildren's lifetimes, you will never see the American Thoroughbred Breeding Industry do a 180 degree about-face, abandon its penchant for speed, and adopt instead anything remotely resembling a mating policy specifically designed to produce slow horses that can run a long time, i.e. stamina types, and that any suggestion that such a thing is even remotely possible is so cosmically uninformed of the global business pursuits that drive the industry as to be downright embarrassing. And,

2) That in your unborn grandchildren's lifetimes, you will never see even a single racing jurisdiction among the scores currently in independent operation nationwide ban drugs within its own state - since doing so would be tantamount to financial suicide for the horse racing industry in that state - such that the mere suggestion in print that such a thing is even remotely possible throughout the entirety of American racing nationwide is so monumentally ignorant of the day-to-day realities of the modern game as to be embarrassing.

It occurs to me that if we all simply came to terms with the common sense, immutable reality that the possibility of either of those two events occuring in our lifetimes is no more likely than ... say ... Pamela Anderson showing-up at our front door unannounced to give us a champagne and peaches bath, we can save on these pages an enormous amount of utterly irrelevant, banal, and intelligence-insulting babble, and instead devote more quality thought and discussion to those things we at least have some possibility of changing/improving in this game we all love, if not for ourselves in our own lifetimes, then for future generations of racing fans whose stewardship in the game - like our own mentors before us - we hold in our hands.

Rave

Here's a quick trivia quiz for one and all.  Over the past 20 years, name the three 4YO+ horses that have contested three Grade 1's races on dirt, at two turns, at three different race tracks, within a span of five weeks?

Give up?  Their names are None, Noneatall, and Areyoulosingyourfiggenmind!

The reason, of course, is because no modern trainer of sound mind would subject a quality older race horse to this kind of physical abuse.  And yet, it is precisely the abuse to which we subject the lifeblood of our sport every year - our 3YO babies - in order to crown a "champion."

When the modern day Triple Crown series was conceived in 1896, the breed of American thoroughbred bore no resemblance to the one competing today.  To understand the extent to which that statement is true, you need only look at the winning times of the first 15 Kentucky Derby winners:

1910 Donau 2:06 2/5; 1909 Wintergreen 2:08 1/5; 1908 Stone Street 2:15 1/5; 1907 Pink Star 2:12 3/5; 1906 Sir Huon 2:08 4/5; 1905 Agile 2:10 4/5; 1904 Elwood 2:08; 1903 Judge Himes 2:09; 1902 Alan-a-Dale 2:08; 1901 His Eminence 2:07; 1900 Lieut. Gibson 2:08; 1899 Manuel 2:12; 1898 Plaudit 2:09; 1897 Typhoon II 2:12; 1896 Ben Brush 2:08.

The modern-day, bred-for-speed, American thoroughbred is 20-50 lengths faster than these horses, and they were the FASTEST of their day 100 years ago!  When you look back at the litany of thoroughbreds just over the past 10 years who never raced again after the Triple Crown trail, the list is absolutely staggering.  It's also why bestowing an Eclipse Award for 3YO Champion on a piece-of-s**t, douche bag slacker like Bernardini who dodged the two hardest legs of the Crown so he could cherry pick a summer's worth of watered-down Grade 1's not only was an act of primordial ignorance, but a slap-in-the-face to every 3YO dating back to the electrifying Risen Star who saw their careers come to a screeching halt as a result of honoring the grand traditions of the Triple Crown trail.

It's also why for the umpteenth year in a row, we're staring at a Preakness Stakes with all the sizzle of a fried bologna sandwich.  An 8-horse field in the second leg of racing's Triple Crown?  Are you kidding me?  Worse still, half of them don't even belong.  Does anyone think that would EVER be the case if instead the Preakness was run on the first Saturday in June?  And if the Belmont was run on the first Saturday in July, could we not again expect a full field of fresh horses every year?  And wouldn't 16-20 horses in every leg of this great series be the BEST possible thing for the sport of racing?

I know there are a lot of folks who disagree with my position, none more so than one Jeremy Plonk.  Despite the fact that we disagree on almost NOTHING else in the entire game, he believes the breed is entirely too pampered today, and would just as soon see the Triple Crown series run on consecutive weekends!  The far more prevalent argument against changing the Triple Crown series comes from die-hard traditionalists who claim that doing so would "water-down" the accomplishments of every future Triple Crown Champion.  Again, I vehemently disagree with this logic.  If anything, I believe it would enhance the status of future Triple Crown champions, not detract from it, for the very reason at play this coming Saturday; and at play in virtually every Preakness Stakes over the past dozen years; namely, the severely watered-down fields that have been the hallmark of the Preakness Stakes.  These watered-down fields are the very reason, I believe, for the recent explosion in first-two-leg winners like Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Charismatic, Funny Cide, and Smarty Jones, none of whom with the possible exception of "Smarty" could carry the feed-tub of an Affirmed, Seattle Slew, or Secretariat.  Instead, I believe spreading-out the series to a month between each race would make a Triple Crown champion defeat EVERY legitimate challenger in all three events, not just one in some, and some in the others, as has become the case in recent years. 

But far, far, far more germane, I'm convinced the game would see a precipitous drop in the number of career-ending injuries that this grueling schedule imposes on the lifeblood of our sport.  The result not only would be a huge boost come November each year for the Breeders' Cup, I believe it to be the perfect elixir for turning-around a Handicap Division that in recent years has become a veritable laughing stock.

And if none of that manages to convince you, then consider this.  Do you know the PRIMARY reason - and by primary, I mean by 10 times -- why horses break through the gate before a race?  It's because they're injured.  Have you ever had a badly sprained ankle, broken toe, or severely in-grown toe nail?  If so, then you know none of those injuries ever kept you from moving around.  Right?  Remember?  All you had to do was put the bulk of your weight on your uninjured foot, and you got around just fine.  The problem, of course, was when you had to stand completely still, and put equal weight on both feet.  That's when the pain became excruciating.  It's the same with an injured horse.  So long as he's moving, the injury is manageable.  However, the second he has to stand still is when the pain becomes unbearable.  And when do injured horses have to stand perfectly still?  In the starting gate.  For an injured horse at that point, his overwhelming instinct is to move, even if it means thrusting himself violently against a huge, double steel barrier to relieve the pain. 

And does that not also perfectly explain the phenomenal "coincidence" of why 99.9% of all horses who break through the gate prior to a race fail to win?  It's not because they break through the gate; it's because they're hurting.

I'm convinced Barbaro sustained his injury in the early morning hours during his 1.5 mile gallop on the day of the Preakness, and that it simply did not have time to show-up prior to the race.  If you replay the Preakness post parade as I have many times, you'll notice Edgar Prado look back over his right shoulder at Barbaro's right-hind leg as they were approaching the starting gate.  I thought nothing of it at the time.  Today, I believe he must have felt something amiss, and simply chose to ignore it, or didn't think it was anything to be concerned about.  In any case, the point is this: had that Saturday morning gallop been two weeks before the Preakness, instead of the same day, I believe in my heart Barbaro would be alive and racing today.

For all the reasons any purist can point to for continuing an outdated, 110-year-old tradition, I respectfully submit they don't amount to a sack of s**t when weighed against the loss of a single potential generational miracle like Barbaro. 

Octave-the-Rave

Based on the comments I'm getting v. my disgust with the Derby, either you folks aren't getting it, or I'm doing a horrible job of conveying it.  For starters, it has nothing to do with gambling.  NOTHING!  I had Street Sense on every ticket but my doubles with Rags to Riches, and then only because it was less than the parlay, and a ridiculous bet as Jeremy pointed out.  34 horses for a $23 double!!!  Plus, I had him getting beat two noses in my chart.  Besides, I spent more money Sunday night at the Go-cart track with my 12 YO wild-child "niece" and her buddies than I bet on the Derby.  (Little shytz put me into the wall nine times!) 

It has only to do with this.

In 1991, a French-bred deep closer named Arazi lit-up the world with a dream-trip rail run in the BC Juvies.  Six months later, the inimitable Dean Beyer (!) literally was gallavanting the globe guaranteeing both verbally and in print that Arazi would win the Kentucky Derby.  He was not alone.  P. Val said flatly, "The rest are a joke.  This race is over before it's run."  Legendary scribe Joe Hirsch even called him, "the second coming of Secretariat!"

What I saw instead was a skin-and-bones, no lead changing little creme puff whose daddy (Blushing Groom) was a stone cold miler.  As someone who revered the great Secretariat with the same youthful reverance as I did Arnold Palmer and Mickey Mantle, I personally was insulted by the comparisons.  Just as he had in the BC Juvy, Arazi made an electrifying run along the rail in the Derby, only this time he found his golden path blocked.  After swinging 7-8 wide and getting slammed between two horses at the top of the lane, Arazi puked his peanut-sized heart through his right nostril and staggered home on his left lead a demoralized and destroyed horse.  Two weeks after the Derby, I wrote a full-length piece in Horse Player Magazine detailing why Arazi's Derby demise was all-too-predictable.  FTR, Arazi won exactly one more race in his career -- a 1-mile turf event at 1/20 -- before once again failing to change leads in the BC Turf at 2/5 and finishing 11th.

So much for the next Secretariat!

Ten years later almost to the day of Arazi's Derby demise, a deep closing son of Maria's Mon named Monarchos -- a Florida horse whom I came to Louisville to bet and told everyone within ear-shot would run giant -- ran the third fastest time in Derby history with yet another shortest distance between two points, dream-trip, rail-skimming run into the fastest pace in Derby history, and on a track that already that day had seen two 20-year old track records broken -- one by a 3YO filly! -- and another tied.  And once again, Dean Beyer lost his friggen' mind.  He gave Monarchos a staggering 116 Beyer Fig; a figure that remains today the highest Derby figure in recorded history, despite the fact that Monarchos' final quarter mile time was nowhere near those of previous champions.

And on the strength of that mind-numbing number, once again the talk began of the next super horse.  A certain Triple Crown champion, and perhaps the next Secretariat.  In the Preakness, Monarchos once again trailed the field, only this time he would have no such dream trip.  After checking twice in the early going, Monarchos spit the bit like a common slug and chugged home a dispirited and well-beaten sixth.  For the record, Monarchos never won another race.

Comes now Street Sense, the next potential wonder horse.  Already on these pages folks are guaranteeing he'll win the Triple Crown.  Dan Illman ... today ... guaranteed Street Sense would win the Triple Crown.  One of Jeremy's buddies @ the NTRA blog site ... today ... guaranteed that Street Sense would win the Triple Crown.

I would LOVE to see Street Sense win the Triple Crown.  What better story for the game than Jim Tafel, a Floridian; Calvin Borel, a cajun and my brother's dear friend; and Carl Nafzger, the gentleman cowboy of impeccable reputation?  Only, I've seen this insanity before.  This is not the immortal Secretariat who could win from the front end or after stopping to take a nap.  This is not the undefeated Seattle Slew whose versatility and raw speed made trouble all but non-existent.  And this damn sure isn't Affirmed, who left the gate running and dared them to catch him.  Heck, this isn't even the speedy Smarty Jones, nor the nutless-wonder Funny Cide, both of whom had the versatility to control their own destinies every time out.

Street Sense is a one-dimensional horse, and it's the one dimension rarely if ever found in a Triple Crown champion: a DEEP closer.  Was there a better deep closer in our lifetimes than Alydar?  He got squat.  Bupkus.  How about his son Strike the Gold?  Zilch. The list of great closers over the past 25 years is enormous, and none came close to Triple Crown glory.  But what makes all this "guaranteeing" so profoundly ludicrous is that Street Sense is a deep closer who has yet to prove even once in his entire career that he can win a horse race staring down an opponent with his left eyeball! 

Excuse me?  Can we clear away just for a second the pie-eyed Derby euphoria and get this discussion back to some semblance of reality?  I'm not trying to pee on anyone's rainbow who genuinely loves Street Sense.  I know how it feels to genuinely love a race horse; to have your heart in your throat every time he runs; and to go school-boy nuts every time he wins.  There's no feeling in this game like it other than owning that same horse.  What I am saying in no uncertain terms is this: given SS's running style; given the disparity of closers adorning the Triple Crown list; and given this horse's resume-to-date absent a single victory that hasn't resembled Moses parting the Red Sea; for any professional journalist who makes his living writing about the game to "guarantee" that Street Sense will win the Triple Crown is nothing short of embarrassing.

Octave-the-Rave

"If he (Street Sense) had been impeded even once ... if he had been forced to check or steady even for an instant ... or made to go around a few horses instead of getting that unbelievable dream trip ... my horse would be wearing the roses today."

Larry Jones - Trainer of Hard Spun

**********************************************************

Imagine opening the Sunday paper on the day after the Daytona 500 and reading that Jeff Gordon was sitting in 19^th place with 20 laps to go before unleashing a furious rally during which he passed 18 cars in front of him totally unimpeded -- and ALL down on the inside part of the race track -- before sweeping past the leader with two laps to go and winning the sport's greatest race going away.  Now imagine reading further down in the article where Gordon not only pulled-off this astonishing feat, but had his Crew Chief call all 19 drivers in front of him on their radios during Gordon's final pit stop and inform them precisely of his intentions!

If you can envision such a scenario taking place in NASCAR's greatest race and you are not currently residing in a room with padded walls, I wouldn't be making any long-term housing arrangements if I were you!

Two weeks ago in a pre-Bluegrass Stakes blog I opined on these pages as follows: "So, short of a stunning hand-ride win in the Blue Grass from either Great Hunter or Hard Spun - and I doubt it will be Street Sense, since Calvin figures to find his ass in the infield this time if he even thinks about coming-up the wood ..." 

For all the information we, as handicappers, have to digest, analyze, factor-in, and filter-out in order to arrive at our final Derby wagering stratagems, the one absolute about which I felt certain this year was that Street Sense had more to overcome than any other horse in the race.  BY FAR!  I knew he would be at or near the back of the pack after the first half mile and planted firmly on the wood, as had been his M.O. in every single race of his career.  Only this time, I felt certain he was destined to feel the sting of sand in his face; to stop, start again, alter course, maneuver, swing wide, and find himself for the first time ever confronting all of those nuances singularly unique to deep closers that the overwhelming majority experience long before the first Saturday in May, and prove whether they can handle or not.  In fact, I'd be willing to bet that the number of deep closers in Derby history never to encounter such commonalities in their entire careers prior entering The Derby's starting gate can be counted on one hand.  I'd further wager that no such horse in the entire 133-year history of the Kentucky Derby ever has been either the race's first or second betting choice.  EVER!

Suffice to say, I watched the Derby unfold on Saturday with my jaw on my chest.  I have watched the replay a half dozen times since, and the trip gets more implausible with each new viewing.  In light of the fact that racing fans the world over no more knowledgeable than the friggen' Queen of England herself knew exactly what Calvin Borel's pre-race tactics were going to be for Street Sense, how is it even remotely possible that he was able to pull it off precisely as scripted? 

Will someone please explain to me HTF something like that is even remotely possible in the most important horse race on the entire planet?

Racing luck?  What did Rosie tell The Donald?  Bite me?  In fact, there are only two possible explanations, and neither is entirely plausible.

When horses tire, are struggling with the surface, or are having trouble with their footing, the first and most telling sign is their inability to stay pinned to the wood. It's called "drifting," and all horses do it who are performing at anything less than their absolute best.  Go back and read Mike Welch's pre-Derby workout observations, and on more than one occasion he points-out how the subject horse "swung wide coming out of the turn."  Unspoken in that observation is that the horse was "drifting."  Then go back and read his observations about Street Sense's final work - the one he called "perfect" - and you'll note where he observes that Street Sense was glued to the wood coming out of his final turn.  To assume that every horse Street Sense passed either was tiring, struggling with the surface, or having trouble with their footing to the point where they were incapable of staying in the one path - many of whom, I'll remind you, still had three-quarters of a mile to run - is hard to fathom, unless this group of 3YOs turns-out to be the biggest collection of rats ever assembled for a Kentucky Derby, and I am not discounting that possibility in the least.

The other possibility I do not even want to consider, much less contemplate.  If I thought the "I got horse" unspoken rule in the jock's colony holds on Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Cup Day to the same extent it does on a Friday afternoon at Canterbury Downs, I'd run so far and so fast from this game it would make your head swim.

Regardless of the reason and despite all the wowing and gee whizzing and Oh my Goshing and breathlessing to describe Street Sense's performance on these pages, the fact of the matter is this: not a swinging Richard in this game, including Carl Nafzger, Jim Tafel, and Calvin Borel, have any more of a clue what kind of real race horse Street Sense truly is than they did last Friday, nor will they until he competes a two-turn race in a fashion OTHER THAN that of the only friggen' car with a passenger in the carpool lane in afternoon traffic on the Pacific Coast Highway.

Because the way Street Sense won this past Saturday is EXACTLY the way he won the Tampa Bay Derby, and EXACTLY the way he won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.  And unless you're Mandrake the Magician, you have no more way of knowing whether or not that's the ONLY way he is capable of winning than does the man in the moon.  No one knows.  Nor will anyone know until Street Sense finally is forced to confront these simple, basic, fundamental nuances of grace, athleticism, guts, and heart that separate real champions like Afleet Alex from dream-trip, one-race wonder rats like Manarchos and Arazi.

And THAT's what makes this particular Derby so unsatisfying and disappointing.  Not that Street Sense won, but rather that he won yet again in a fashion that tells us absolutely nothing about his heart, his courage, his athleticism, nor anything ... ANYTHING ... other than his uncanny penchant for finding the finish line in the shortest, sweetest, and smoothest route of any deep closer maybe in the history of the game.

Forgive me if such a horse fails to leave me "breathless."  Barbaro left me breathless.  This horse left me only speechless.

Octave-the-Rave

It wasn't until after the Derby that I made my way across the bricks and up to the Press Box to meet JP.  Despite the fact that Carl Nafzger's press conference was in full bore, JP dropped everything, left the room, and spent 20-30 minutes talking with me about the Derby, the Oaks, his week in Louisville, and more.  The big guy is exactly as I envisioned: larger than life, humble in defeat, and totally consumed by the game, his job, and his love for both.  How consumed?  After hearing how chaotic had been his week, I all but begged him to let us send the limo to pick-up him, his wife, and daughter and join us at a catered after-Derby party in Anchorage complete with dinner, cocktails, and the De La Hoya/Mayweather fight.  He graciously begged out for his craft, and a wise decision it turned-out to be.  The final guest to depart was the future Mayor of Anchorage, last seen trying to find his way home on my cousin's John Deere riding mower!

After reading all the blogs this morning, I'm left with two overwhelming impressions: 1) It's a wonder some of you aren't in traction this morning for all the shameless back-slapping on what was, need I remind you, the post time Derby favorite; and 2) I'm astonished that only McCarron pointed-out the overwhelmingly obvious aspect of the running that made it, for me, the most unsatisfying, disappointing, and mystifying Kentucky Derby I personally have ever witnessed.

The first observation first.  For those who used Hard Spun, your exacta was the textbook definition of "ignorance is bliss."  We were in Box 316 for the Derby, smack dab on the finish line. When the horses paraded past the grandstand prior to race - a Derby tradition that anyone who watched the race on TV would have seen -- 19 of the 20 horses were near the outside rail, as instructed, so the fans could get an up-close and personal view of their favorite steed.  Only one was out of formation:  Hard Spun!  He was off by himself, closer to the infield railing, and as far from the crowd as he could get.  Nonetheless, he was so worked-up and out-of-control a bunch of us thought he might have a heart attack before reaching the saddling enclosure.  Coupled with the ridiculous work on Tuesday and the fact that his workmate, Wildcat Bettie B., barely finished just three races earlier, Hard Spun was on no one's ticket I know who knows squat about the game.  That he was allowed to go off on his own in one of the most ridiculously uncontested half-mile strolls in Derby history is fodder for a whole ‘nother blog about "Drugs in the Game."  Specifically, the ones Pletcher, O'Neill, and Miller must have been doing all week to allow something so $5,000 claiming race mind-numbing to take place.

As for the second observation, there is no doubt but that the outcome on Saturday was BY FAR the best possible outcome for the sport of racing.  When news leaked that Curlin's majority owners were two of the biggest scumbags in recent memory, and likely to do prison time, the bloom fell-off his rose with a thud.  A Curlin victory on Saturday and their story and legal problems would have been as dominant as any in the post race coverage.  Street Sense's owner Jim Tafel, by contrast, is one of the most respected figures in the game.  Ditto the trainer angle.  For all his success, Asmussen's suspension earlier this year surely would have been a large part of the post race fodder.  Carl Nafzger, instead, forever will be linked with Unbridled and Mrs. Genter, one of the great stories in Derby history.  And, of course, there's the impact made worldwide by Calvin Borel's tearful celebration following Street Sense's victory.  It is impossible to exaggerate just how beloved Calvin Borel is among his fellow riders.  Not respected like a Pincay, feared like a Jerry Bailey, or admired like a Pat Day, but genuinely beloved.  Even Bruce Lunsford (Madcap Escapade; Bel Air Beauty) this morning at his breakfast fund raiser for his Governor's race bid took time-out to speak about Borel, and how touched and happy he was for his success.

Indeed, Street Sense's victory likely will be remembered by the 140,000 in attendance on Saturday who don't know what end a horse eats with, and the millions like them watching on TV, as the greatest Derby of all time.  For those of us who follow the sport regularly and know something about it, it was as forgettable and unsatisfying a Kentucky Derby as any in history. 

When I get back home tonite, I'll tell you why in PART II of this Derby retrospective.

Ocatve-the-Rave

Good morning, Kids:

I've been playing tag with our esteemed Editor all week, but I'm gonna find him today if I have to knock the Queen on her ass.  What a day yesterday.  Got a security escort to the jock's room at midday to see CLOCKER-1.  Used to be known as the "bowels of the beast!"  How 'bout ping pong room, billiards room, workout room, sauna, steam, private wet bar, family visiting area, massuese on stand-by, battery re-charging room (OK, that's a joke ... I think!)  Got to chat with Calvin (3 BOMB winners!) and Robbie, both of whom are convinced they have to fall down to get beat today.  (Keep your eyes peeled on Zanjero at the break.  Rumor has it he's developed a strange habit this week of taking a hard right out of the gate!!)  I was there as GAFF was peeing on 'em yesterday.  A quick FYI from CLOCKER-1: Sentry (Asmussen) was GAFF'S workmate for the past couple of weeks, and worked dead even with him. Thanks to CLOCKER-1, I have the Derby covered with Oaks' doubles, with the biggest being Curlin, and the 2nd biggest Scat Daddy, who as of this writing (10:30 a.m.) is a HUGE UNDERLAY at 6-1!  Plus, made nothing but 11-4's on the Oaks (poor Octave!  Any other year ... ) and watched maybe the best filly I've ever seen up close and personal in a lifetime of racing. 

The crew is starting to roll here.  The weather is GORGEOUS right now ... cool, crisp, and dry ... and hopefully we'll get our first break of the week today weatherwise.  If you're any kind of horse player and have never been to a Kentucky Derby ... well ... you know!  NOTHING else like it!

Hope everyone knocks 'em dead today.  Full report next week! 

Rave

Scat Daddy                  126  14    9-hd      9-hd      8-hd      7-1        6-4        1-no      12.10

Curlin                          126  2      5-hd      6-nk      6-hd      4-hd      1-hd      2-nk      2.80

Street Sense                126  7      18-1      18-2      18-1      11-hd    10-nk    3-hd      5.00

Circular Quay               126  16    15-2      17-hd    17-hd    18-nk    17-2       4-1        9.30

Great Hunter                126  20    12-2      13-2      15-hd    12-hd    8-1        5-DH     13.60

Dominican                    126  19    19-6      19-3      19-3      13-hd    13-nk    5-DH     29.20

Any Given Saturday      126  18    11-hd    11-5      9-3        6-1        5-1        7-nk      14.50

No Biz Like Shobiz        126  12    10-nk    10-hd    7-3        5-3        9-hd       8-no      9.70

Liquidity                       126  9      3-nk      5-2        5-2        2-hd      3-hd      9-no      27.30

Zanjero                       126  3      20         20         20         17-nk    15-hd    10-nk    41.30

Cowtown Cat                126  6      6-1        4-1        3-hd      1-hd      4-1        11-nk    17.10

Tiago                           126  15    17-1      16-nk    14-hd    14-hd    12-2      12-2      13.00

Hard Spun                    126  8      14-nk    12-hd    12-1      9-2        11-1      13-1      18.60

Stormello                     126  17    2-1        2-1        1-1        3-hd      14-hd    14-no    38.40

Teuflesberg                  126  10    4-hd      3-nk      2-hd      15-1      15-1      15-hd    52.30

Storm in May                126  4      16-hd    15-2      13-hd    16-2      16-1      16-7      71.00

Bwana Bull                   126  11    13-2      14-hd    16-2      13-1      17-2      17-3      61.90

Sam P.                        126  13    7-hd      8-2        11-1      20         19-3      18-12    59.50

Sedgefield                    126  1      1-3        1-1        4-nk      8-hd      18-5      19-37    96.80

Imawildandcrazyguy      126  5      8-2        7-hd      10-3      19-hd     20        DNF   122.50

Octave-the-Rave

I do not want to disrupt the Derby dialogue this week, but next week after all the anal-y-sis has settled down, we need to talk about something I think really stinks: trainers with multiple entries in a race where they (or their wives) have an ownership interest in one of the horses.  Today's 8th at CD is that dichotomy on steroids!  Check this out.  Steve Asmussen trains two of the horses in the race, one of which he owns 100 percent, with no partners.  The other is owned by -- get this -- "Scott Blasi Racing Stables!"  His assistant! 

Folks, these are two of the most honest and reputable guys in the game, but even if it was Mother Theresa training for Bishop TuTu, the semblance of impropriety alone should be enough to make racing realize how bad this looks for the game.

Octave-the-Rave

I leave early tomorrow for Louisville and plan-on hooking up with our esteemed Editor on 4^th Street for the PP draw.  In the meantime, I'm still having a heck of a time making sense out of this year's race, and since it's one of the few times all year where I go the "sucker" route and make soopas, I've been devouring every word written by anyone with a keyboard looking for any edge or angle I can find.  Going on the assumption that 99 percent of the wagering public will hit the super pool; that Street Sense and Curlin will be somewhere on the bulk of everyone's tickets; and that the key will be finding the other two out of a reasonable sampling of the remaining 18, here are some musings I've been mulling-over strictly for the "whatever it's worth" file:

DOMINICAN - CLOCKER-1 really likes this horse to hit the board, and I learned years ago to give the lad's opinion huge weight.  The main reason he's high on this horse is because of something he knows that 95 percent of the racing world doesn't, namely that he's no Polytrack wonder.  He first put Dominican in his Stable Mail as a TWO YEAR OLD after watching him work several times ON DIRT -- almost a full year before he ever came near a synthetic surface.

STORMELLO - His trainer was quoted as saying, "We will win The Derby," which of course means he has no chance.  ("When you crow, you blow!"  INFALLIBLE in horse racing, and the guy's an idiot for taking a public leak in the face of the racing Gods' #1 Thou Shalt Not...!)  Could he make the ticket and be the bomb?  For starters, he's by Stormy Atlantic.  Of SA's 684 foals to race, Stormello already is his #1 earner!  SA progeny are .016 percent winners of graded stakes (11 out of 684) and have an AWD of 6.5F!  In the BC Juvy, Stormello had the golden rail, and was beaten 15 lengths.  In the FOY @ speed-favoring Gulfstream, he ran huge but failed to hold-off Scat Daddy.  In the FL Derby, his second attempt at 1 1/8^th miles, he ran ¾'ers in a full second slower than the FOY, and this time was beaten by three horses and four lengths.  The improvement required to beat 16 of these strikes me as staggering.

GREAT HUNTER and NO BIZ  -  Who isn't baffled by what to do with these two?  They're the Frick & Frack of this year's field.  Just three months ago they were 2-3 on EVERYBODY'S contenders' list after Street Sense.  Now look at ‘em.  They're both double digits and climbing!  Have they really fallen that dramatically, or have we all been lulled asleep by a media corps with visions of Affirmed and Alydar dancing in their heads?  And if you do decide to use one, how the heck do you toss the other?

ANY GIVEN SATURDAY and SCAT DADDY  -  How do you separate these two?  And why isn't JR riding Scat Daddy instead of the midget CQ who clearly was the 3YO colt Pletcher felt LEAST LIKELY to intimidate the filly Rags to Riches?  That can't be a positive sign, can it?  Eight weeks off, never been a mile and an eighth, and three solid weeks warming-up a filly he couldn't once get by in any of their four works?  These two have to be Pletcher's studs, but which is better?  Then again, the one above all others who would make Pletcher look like a genius ... who would cement his reputation as a master conditioner and make them forget forever the 0-14 ... is THE MIDGET!  And if he believes Scat is better than AGS, and wants to give both Scat and The Midget their best chance, would he not send Cowtown Cat out winging real early and have AGS pounce on the backside and continue the blistering assault as far as he could go, knowing his two closers will be sitting in the catbird seat?

ZANJERO and TIAGO  -  Twins, separated at birth, then moved 2,000 miles apart so they wouldn't scare each other.  You could do a lip-tattoo switch on these two and no one would know the difference.  Zanjero likely will be on the bulk of East Coast tickets; Tiago on the bulk of the Left Coasters.  That said, if the half-mile time goes up in 48+, a distinct possibility this year, you know what you can do with your exotic tickets that include these horses?  I'll use them only if I can convince myself that the post position draw, or TP, or Doug O. for that matter, or all three are going to ensure a break-neck early pace. 

LIQUIDITY  -  Eligible for N2X and trounced by Tiago when sitting in the catbird's seat turning for home in last and seemingly a cinch?  An equipment change to "blinkers off" in the biggest race of his life!!!!!!!!!  Plus, a Mike Welch negative!

CIRCULAR QUAY  -  Can anyone remember a Kentucky Derby Winner's Circle photo where the blanket of roses draped around the horse's neck was dragging on the ground?  This horse is a midget.  I have bigger raccoons in my backyard.  Think about how many EXTRA STRIDES this horse will have to take compared to a No Biz or a Curlin to negotiate the 2,200 yards!  On simple physics and physiology, it seems to me his heart would have to be abnormally out of proportion to the rest of his organs to pull this off.  Then again, his nickname around the barn is "Tripod!"

HARD SPUN -  Thank you, Mr. Jones!  Might have been the hardest horse to figure before his ridiculous work on Monday.  Who in his right mind?  No thank you ...

THE REST - Only for those disciples of the idiot button, to whom I've been dying to say forever: "Using the ‘ALL' button is exactly like betting maidens against winners: you can cash the ticket, but you damn sure CAN'T BRAG ABOUT IT AFTERWARDS!

Did I say this blog might help you sort things out?  Yeah, right!  I'm more confused now than when I started!

Octave-the-Rave

PS: We're doing the season premiere of Trainer Speak live from CD on Thursday night!