OCTAVE-the-RAVE

Time once again for the Breeders' Empty Cup Award.  You'll recall the inaugural award went last year to Barclay Tagg for depriving racing fans of one of America's best turf horses on BC Day, Showing-Up - opting instead for the sure-fire money of some second-rate, PoS NY race the week before that Showing-Up won by 10.

Second Runner-up:

The Breeders' Cup Committee - Nu Joisey in Novemba!  Duh!  Here's an idea: partner with the Seminole Indians, buy Hialeah Park (the world's safest racing surface), make it Breeders' Cup World Headquarters, create the Breeders' Cup Museum ala the Kentucky Derby Museum at Churchill Downs, open it annually for a 15-day meet culminating on Friday and Saturday with the Breeders' Cup National Championships, and run slots and VLTs the rest of the year. 

Short of that, keep it in Florida and Southern California - the parts that don't burn, slide into the ocean, and/or disappear behind mysterious arboreals of partially-oxygenated swill.

First Runner-up:

John Murtaugh - OK, was he hammered out of his gourd, or could he possibly be that bad?  After blowing the first turn on Simply Perfect and taking Precious Kitten into the parking lot in the Filly & Mare Turf, he loafs Excellent Art behind some of the slowest fractions in Breeders' Cup Mile history, then abandons any chance of winning by swinging 6-wide into one of the shortest stretches in the nation.  Astonishingly, his final ride of the day was his worst.  Just as he did in the Group 1 Juddmonte International on boggy ground, he wrestled with Dylan Thomas for the first three-quarter miles behind ridiculously slow fractions when the horse is perfectly capable of free-wheeling the pace, and still exploding the final 3/8ths -- exactly the tact English Channel deployed to run away and hide.  It was hard to watch, and harder still to justify why guys supposedly as sharp as Aiden O'Brien continue to use second-rate riders like Murtaugh on Breeders' Cup Day.

2007 Grand Prize Winner:

Larry Jones - All Larry Jones accomplished on Saturday by entering his horse yet again in a race he had no chance of winning was confirm Hard Spun's status as the fourth best 3-year-old in the U.S. in 2007 - behind Curlin, Street Sense, and Rags to Riches, respectively.  If you had this horse on your Pick-6 ticket, you need to find a new avocation.  In retrospect, the blank-shooting, no-doubt-already-crippled, likely sent-over-here-to-die-in-a-blaze-of-gloring George Washington was a better option.  At least he had a 5-10% "what if" factor.  Hard Spun had no chance.  And come Christmas, when the extra $40-60,000 Larry Jones put in his pocket for Hard Spun's runner-up finish on Saturday in the Classic is long gone, his legacy-for-life on one of the best bred, most exciting racehorses of our generation will read as follows:

• Triple Crown victories - ZERO
• Breeders' Cup victories - ZERO
• Grade 1 victories - ONE for six.

For the official record, Gato del Sol has a better record.  Editor's Note has a better record.  Volponi has a better record. R-phuquing-KANG has a better record! 

Oh, yeah ... and never mind one of the last sons of the great Danzig whom racing fans never once got to see step foot on the turf.

Larry Jones is a fitting winner of the 2^nd annual Breeder's Empty Cup Award.

Octave-the-Rave

Just a quick note to say "Happy B'Cup Day," and good luck to all.  Does it get any better than this, quagmire notwithstanding?

Speaking of which, I fairly well eschewed the BC issue of HP Daily for my 'capping since the track condition rendered much of the info moot.  However, it still made for great reading.  When I got to Donna Brothers' piece, my eyes lit up.

For non-subscribers, DB interviewed Joe Bravo, king of the Monmouth riding colony, for his insights on the often maligned "speed-is-golden" racing surface.  Here was her first question, and Bravo's first response:

DB:  "Joe, as leading rider this summer, did you notice any speed/rail/middle bias on the dirt course?"

Bravo:  "Not really, but since Monmouth is a flat mile track, speed naturally is going to carry much better than it will at a big oval like Belmont Park in races a mile or longer because horses will have four opportunities to change leads!" 

Honestly, who among us knew that before hearing it from Joe Bravo?  Yet, read closely the tone of his answer.  Does it not imply common knowledge, and something everyone naturally should know who follows this game closely?

My question thus becomes: do the powers-that-be at Equibase, and people like Steven Crist, Beyer, Shuback and others ever bother to READ about the science and mechanics of our game -- othen than what they write themselves, I mean?  It seems to me impossible that they could, and still remain so cosmically ignorant about a facet of the game that is so fundamental and critical to its participants.

Octave-the-Rave

Hey, I've tried the "honey" routine.  For 20 years.  Double phuque 'em.

Majestic Warrior switched over to his right lead early on the turn in the Champagne. On Thursday, trainer Bill Mott thought Majestic Warrior looked much more comfortable, even though Mott said his exercise rider told him that Majestic Warrior switched leads just a smidge before ideal, just outside the quarter pole.  "I was concerned in the Champagne that he got off his left lead so early," Mott said. "He got off his left lead before the three-eighths pole, which is very unusual.

Basic Training 101 would tell you he was uncomfortable if he's doing that."

Daily Racing Form - OnLine Edition - October 18, 2007

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Out of curiosity, I did a quick search on DRF Archives today to see how many articles have been published just in the past six months that included the phrase "changing leads," and its many derivatives. 

Would you believe 77!

Despite the fact that every owner, trainer, jock, and exercise rider understand that few things are more fundamental to the game of horse racing, or have more influence on a horse's overall performance, than "changing leads," the entire premise remains hopelessly lost on the people whose job it is to report these basic, fundamental performance indicators for our entire industry!

Is it just me, or does this dichotomy not strike every regular horse player as patently inconceivable?

How long do you think Elias Sport's Bureau would still be MLB's official stat company if next year they announced they no longer would be keeping track of batting averages? 

How long do you think NFL Films would still be around if in 2008 they decided only to film passing plays?

How long do you think it would take Hootie and the Boyz to shit-can CBS-TV if for next year's Masters the network decided that tee shots were irrelevant, and therefore no longer would be covered?

Those are very realistic analogies vis-à-vis Equibase's teeming ignorance, laziness, or both in failing to include in its analysis and reporting one of the sport of horse racing's most basic, fundamental performance indicators.

To me, it simply boggles the mind, and lends further credence to those who think our sport little more than a haven for nitwits and degenerates.

Rave

One thing I do each year prior to our Friday night BC Handicapping Seminar is chart the track and post variants from the subject track's most recent meet.  Some years the information is particularly helpful.  Other years - like 2006, for example, with Butch "I'm Dumbfounded and I Can't Get up" Lehr & Crew on the tractor - the information is totally worthless. 

Below are the figures for Monmouth. 

The top figure, for running style, is based on par, with par being 1.00.  For instance, if the figures for early speed, pace, off-pace, and deep close for a subject distance were 1.00, 1.00, 1.00, and 1.00, this would constitute the "perfect" track, with no bias whatever.  The higher the value, the greater the bias for that type running style, and vice versa.  The second figure represents the percentage of races won for that particular running style.

The second figure is for post positions.  The percentages indicate the number of races won from that post, at the subject distance indicated.

Highest values for each category are bolded.

It is particularly worth noting the number of races on which this data is based.  Obviously, the fewer races, the less reliable the information, and vice versa.

Also worth noting is the new 1 Mile Dirt race on Friday.  In fact, it isn't a Mile at all, but rather 8.3 furlongs - or closer to 1 1/16^th (8.5F) than a pure mile.

Hope this info proves helpful.

Rave

Morning Gang:

Just got the following e-mail from CLOCKER-1:

"Watch this freak on Saturday, the second coming of Barbaro, another Dynaformer called TEND. IT IS SCARY how much he reminds me of Barbaro. Trained by Mott ... drew the one hole in the Lanes End ... only second career start, pretty ambitious placing."  

That's a HUGE mouthful for the ultra-conservative C-1, who -- like me -- thought B'ro the near perfect racehorse.  Unfortunately, I'm buried without PPs and replay access 'til COB Friday.  Meanwhile, can anyone give me some scoop on this dude Tend?

Thanks ...

Rave