McCarron

Below is an excerpt of a blog I wrote here on February 25^th about the Polytrack surface:

"The biggest detriment of the prevailing dirt track speed bias is the lack of imagination it takes to win a race. The races I have witnessed over the past six months over artificial surfaces are throwbacks to my impressionable early years of handicapping and provide a hopeful look into the future. The Polytrack and Cushion Track races are definitely more in the realm of "rider's" races (like many races on the lawn with big fields); it takes more than just a quick quarter-mile to win. I witnessed more well-timed, well run winning efforts in one weekend at the Keeneland Fall meet than occurred in the entire Fall season of 2005. Ditto for Hollywood.....

While the sheer talent of the current jockey colony in Southern California is weak in comparison to those magical years of unparalleled depth, it's nice to see a surface that puts the onus back on the rider to show some creativity. The new track surfaces are akin to the new rules of the National Hockey League that allow the most talented players the freedom to showcase their talents. Horseracing is a great sport, and as such, should allow the talent of the finest athletes to thrive."

JP brought up something very similar in the April 28 installment of “Countdown to the Crown” in the “Everyone’s a Critic” section:

 
"And 'TIZZY's win carried decent fractions, showing me more and more everyday that I watch Polytrack racing that it is, indeed, the jockeys who determine these races not the surface. Remember that note as you embark on Arlington and Del Mar this season with new surfaces."

Curiosity got the best of me, so I did some digging on how well the top riders fared at Keeneland during past two Fall meets on Polytrack relative to the same corresponding meets with the old downhill, concrete, boring, overly predictable Keeneland oval. Here is a quick stat showing the relative influence of the surface on the jockey standings. This stat simply shows the number of races won by the Top 3, Top 5, and Top 10 jocks by total wins at the end of the meet expressed as a percentage of total wins for the Keeneland Fall 2006/Fall 2005 meets:

 Fall 2006 Poly

Top 3 riders as a percentage of total wins at meet: 43.5%

Top 5 riders as a percentage of total wins at meet: 56.5%

Top 10 riders as a percentage of total wins at meet: 75.1%

 Fall 2005 Concrete Downhill Highway

Top 3 riders as a percentage of total wins at meet: 38.5%

Top 5 riders as a percentage of total wins at meet: 49.3%

Top 10 riders as a percentage of total wins at meet: 66.0%

The trend continued during the recently completed April meet (does not include the final day of racing):

 Spring 2007

Top 3 riders as a percentage of total wins at meet: 40.6%

Top 5 riders as a percentage of total wins at meet: 56.3%

Top 10 riders as a percentage of total wins at meet: 76.6%

 
Granted, these percentages are based on a low total number of races at such a short meet, but they do provide a useful context for understanding the complexity of the new surface. It is telling when you look at the performance of a competent jockey such as James Graham. James Graham finished in the Top 10 in total wins during the Fall 2005 meet with 9 winners compared with 1 at the Fall 2006 meet. For this current meet, Graham was 1 for 69 as of April 26, the statistics do not yet include the last day of the meet.

What does all of this really mean? It means the best jocks are that much better on this surface and marginal jocks are essentially useless. Gone are the days at Keeneland when the pilots with lesser talent could simply ride the horse like a Greyhound to the half mile pole and use the surface to get some occasional wins.

Given all the time and effort we are currently spending on handicapping, analyzing race replays, studying charts and the like, I thought it would be a brief and welcomed distraction to cover some derby proposition bets/odds I'd like to see offered online or in the Nevada casinos:

1:9-Odds that Mike Battaglia will tout Street Sense-Curlin or Curlin-Street Sense as his Derby Exacta

1:9-Odds that I will listen to any celebrity "prediction" of who will win the Derby (1:9-Odds that I will make an exception and listen to anything that frequent Derby attendee Jamie Lynn Sigler has to say, horseracing or otherwise)

1:9-Odds that I will bet too much on the Derby

1:9-Odds that Jerry Bailey is a tiny man

1:9-Odds that a wealthy owner will win the Derby

164.5-Under/Over on the number of times the race is referred to as the "Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands" between now and May 6th

1:5-Odds that the mainstream sports media will fail to provide meaningful analysis or coverage to the Derby on the one day a year horse racing is a part of the national consciousness

2:5-Odds that someone at work will suggest the brilliant strategy of wagering $2 to win on each of the Derby starters

1,000:1-Odds that I will take the time to explain to said co-worker that the mere suggestion of wagering $2 to win on each Derby starter implies the individual is mathematically challenged

EVEN-Odds that the Breeders' Cup will announce the addition of yet another (ungraded) Friday race, this time for Quarter Horses going 350 yards

11.5-Under/Over on the number of combined cheesy human interest stories for Saturday Derby coverage on ESPN and NBC

3:5-Odds offered on "The Mullins"--an exciting new prop bet that covers horses conditioned by Pletcher, O'Neill, and Asmussen to win the Derby on one fun filled wager. Losers of "The Mullins" wager are eligible for a second chance drawing where 100 lucky individuals receive a coupon for a free vanilla milkshake courtesy of the fine folks at the Yum! Brands family of restaurants

4:5-Odds that most handicappers will provide more astute post-race analysis than pre-race analysis

3:1-Odds that Steve Haskin will list 17 of the 20 Derby entrants as threats to win the race during the week of April 30th based on recent workouts, looks, or pedigree

20:1-Odds that Trevor Denman will miss Street Sense on the rail again 

5,000:1-Odds that my homemade mint julep will taste better than battery acid

10,000,000:1-Odds that Tiago will win the Triple Crown 

(It's 6:49pm Central time on Monday...Dominican is just now hitting the wire from the Blue Grass.)

Many will take issue with the 83^rd running of the Blue Grass Stakes, not knowing what to make of the results. On the surface (no pun intended), it was an incredibly bizarre race with ultra slow fractions early--26.12 seconds for the opening quarter-mile, 51.46 seconds for a half-mile, and 1:16.65 for six furlongs followed by an all out sprint to the wire.

We're not accustomed to witnessing such strangely run races. However, I have a lot of faith in the Polytrack surface insofar as a few major issues are concerned:

1. The surface builds stamina;
2. Requires a level of fitness that pure dirt tracks cannot replicate;
3. Maintains the soundness of the horses that compete on it.

As other bloggers have astutely referenced, the results from the surface this year have been troubling and inconsistent. This creates a difficult situation for the "figure folks" that must attempt to normalize the final times in order to create a speed figure analogous to all other tracks. The Beyer Boys are handicapped by the inconsistent surface that is producing world record times early in the week and slow as molasses times later in the week in their marquee event of the season. Furthermore, the total pool of available races on the new Keeneland surface is so small that it is inherently difficult to produce a data set that is accurate enough to create meaningful speed figures and feel a high level of confidence.    

In its short existence, the Polytrack surface, although frustrating and quirky at times, has already produced the 1-2-3 finishers from the BC-juvenile (Street Sense, Circular Quay, and Great Hunter) despite the race receiving slightly lower speed figures than other highly thought of 2 year old preps:

Great Hunter (Breeders' Futurity-KEE) = 90 Beyer/99 BRISfig

Scat Daddy (Champaign-BEL) = 93 Beyer/105BRISfig

Stormello (Norfolk BC-SA) = 93 Beyer/104 BRISfig 

Of course there are numerous other handicapping factors to consider coming up to a race such as the BC Juvenile and the figures listed above aren't all that divergent, but it is interesting to note how that race panned out. I mention the above numbers since the 93 Beyer earned by Dominican in the Blue Grass will no doubt bring some value to the participants coming out of that race. Street Sense will now become the likely second choice amongst the wagering public after the lightly raced and potential freak Curlin ran away from a below average Arkansas Derby field. Great Hunter dealt with a troubled trip and will be a much bigger price than many expected previous to the running of the Blue Grass come Derby Day. Dominican will likely get overlooked as he hasn't run a "fast" race figure-wise on paper, to date. Teuflesberg ran six furlongs as slow as physics will allow to still be considered "running" and not "scampering" or "walking" and could not hold on, which doesn't bode well for him. However, his effort was courageous as this horse is a true 6F - Mile type that ran the extra distance on guts alone.

While the 2007 Blue Grass was strange and didn't answer many questions, let's hope at the very least, some value was created as a result of the chaos.

Following up on the circus that has become our National Championship, the NTRA website is listing January 25-26 as the contest date, with the unfortunate caveat "subject to change" also mentioned. It fails to list a host venue, further fueling speculation that nothing has been determined to date. 

This date, choosen by the clueless NTRA, quite unfortunately overlaps with the 2008 Horseplayer World Series. Linda Ferris and her staff at the Orleans in conjunction with the Coast Casino family have always treated the horseplayer with respect and provided excellent customer service. The Coast Casinos are truly one of the few entities that actually give a damn about the horses.

In selecting January 25-26, the NTRA will bring a great deal of harm to the HPWS. Countless potential entrants that normally buy into or qualify for the annual Orleans event also qualify for the NHC, which will truly marginalize the HPWS. I saw many of the same faces at both events this year and feel badly that the Orleans will suffer due to the near sided nature of the NTRA. How can the DRF/NTRA boast of hosting a "national championship" event complete with a year long qualifying schedule and fail to have a set date or host site set as of April 12?

Assuming the Jan 25-26 date remains in tact for the NHC, this in effect penalizes the Orleans for having the organizational skills to have a set of dates, times, and ballrooms reserved in advance. The only way they can potentially rebound is to allow participants to purchase (or qualify for) mulitple entries. 

Here is what the NTRA lists as their vision for the next five years according to their Strategic Plan: 

NTRA Vision for the Next Five Years

 Expanding bloodstock market;

 Integrity matching or exceeding that of other major sports and gaming businesses; and

 Strong legislative presence in Washington, D.C.

How does the NTRA expect to accomplish said goals to grow this sport and reach a wider audience when it cannot provide the most ardent of existing fans and handicappers a home for their marquee contest? New dollars and support will not come without first understanding and meeting the basic needs of the existing fan base...... 

For all parties involved, let's hope the contest dates for the two biggest events do not overlap. Let's hope the HPWS does well. But, most of all, let's hope the NHC even occurs at all in 2008.....   

The Top Six reasons why Top Ten (or Twelve or Fifteen or Twenty) lists are futile:

6. Unless there is a new $0.10 Deca-Fecta (10 horses in exact order) or $0.05 Icosa-Fecta (20 horses in exact order) Derby wager, why on earth does anyone care about the top 10, 15, 17, 19 or 20 horses prior to the running of the Derby? As handicappers, we aim to cash winning tickets, not rank horses from 1 to x. I understand isolating contenders, but listing a Top 20 seems arbitrary and unnecessary.

5. Did anyone have Giacomo in their 2005 Top 5? Top 10? Top 15? How about Closing Argument? Invisible Ink? How many list-makers included Tiago prior to Sunday morning? Time to make a new list (again).  

4. Are there really people in this world capable of assessing a horse as the "17^th best" Derby prospect versus the "19^th best". That's akin to the high school basketball recruiting gurus ranking the Top 100 prospects. 51^st best versus 64^th best? Who is capable of such prognostication? Perhaps a hybrid of Nostradamus, Andrew Beyer, and God....

3. Isn't a true Top 20 list unrealistic until the final draw is determined? Certainly, some analysis of pace, post position draw, and pre-Derby works is ultimately necessary before ranking horses in order. Ultimately, the presence or absence of a number of early speed types would change the final order of any Top 8 or Top 32 list (see Emblem, War).

2. God forbid in this society that we should fail to rank each and every possible facet of life. Just today I made a list of the Top 10 toilet paper brands. I ate a delicious waffle for breakfast and quickly inked my Top 5 favorite brands of frozen waffles.

1. Not one of the 5 regular contributors to the Kentucky Derby website included Bluegrass Cat in their final Top 10 list. I guess it's difficult to correctly assess how precocious three year olds will handle a twenty horse field, at a mile and a quarter, on a quirky surface that not all horses care for.

After watching and wagering on the festivities at Nad al Sheba for the Dubai World Cup a key issue with Breeders' Cup implications is painfully obvious: The "World Championships" portion of the Breeders' Cup name is misguided terminology

The Dubai World Cup is truly the more international event with horses bred in Japan, Argentina, New Zealand, and the United States winning races while Ireland, South Africa, England, Australia, and Saudi Arabia bred animals hit the board. Since the inception of the Breeders' Cup, the United States boasts 1,478 (79%) of the total starters versus 401 (21%) for all other countries combined. In fact, Kentucky alone claims nearly three times (roughly 2.7) the total starters versus those foaled abroad.

If the Breeders' Cup were truly a World Championship event, we would see the top flight European, Asian, and Australian grass heroes battle it out in the BC Turf. However, in recent memory, we've witnessed the European JV squad ship over here to embarrass the top flight American hopefuls. I realize the Europeans dominate the BC Turf like the Americans dominate the dirt races at the Dubai World Cup, especially the 6F sprint. And certainly, we send over some second flight sprinters that win the Golden Shaheen year after year.

The difference is all in the semantics of the event name. The Dubai World Cup is not claiming global championship status. The "World Thoroughbred" Championship portion of the Breeders' Cup name should be dropped. It's an interesting marketing tool but inaccurately describes the event.

As a fan of the game, I sincerely hope we see Asiatic Boy in the Classic and Vengeance of Rain, Admire Moon, and Daiwa Major in the Turf along with the World's best at Monmouth.