Intro to the BC Mile
I’ve selected the Mile as my Breeders’ Cup race to cover for the next three months since it’s a race that is always enjoyable to watch. There is usually a bit of intrigue in the Mile and the major reasons are three-fold:
1. It combines the American emphasis and current strength (until synthetic tracks gradually reverse that trend) of speed with the European domination of Turf racing. Unlike other races that clearly give one side of the pond an advantage over the other such as the Sprint (U.S.) or the Turf (
2. It requires a good trip to win with up to 14 horses traveling a relatively short distance around two turns.
3. Each Turf course is distinctly different in a manner that moves certain horses up or down accordingly. In addition, the condition of the ground on Cup day is equally important.
My most memorable Mile highlights:
-Six Perfections, trained by Pascal Bary who also won the race with Domedriver in 2002, wins the 2003 Mile at Santa Anita. An important handicapping hint for this race on a regular basis is to watch video replays of the European races. I watched Six Perfections run a fantastic Prep overseas and was instantly sold on the horse. It’s tough to base your selections on current form alone when handicapping the races from overseas. Six Perfections is also a half sister to two time BC Mile winner, Miesque.
-Domedriver upsets the heavily favored Rock of Gibraltar at odds of 26:1 in the 2002 event at
-The 1999 race proved why this race is so much fun to watch. Four horses, Silic,
-1998 will be remembered as one of the greatest training accomplishments in modern times. Michael Dickinson, the “mad genius” enters Da Hoss, the 1996 Mile champion. He missed the entire 1997 campaign and used a single prep race in the fall of 1998, which was an allowance race at Colonial Downs. Da Hoss encountered a fierce stretch battle with Hawksley Hill and prevailed by a head to win the BC Mile. Amazing.
-Spinning World wins the 1997 Mile in 1:32.77. That’s right, 1:32.77.
-Lure fails to win his third BC Mile in a row in the 1994 Mile when Barathea wins easily.
-1991: Opening Verse pays $55.40 under a great ride by Patrick Valenzuela.
-1988: The brilliant French filly, Miesque captures the title for the second year in a row
-1986: Last Tycoon pays $73.80
With an average $2 win ticket paying $21.07 over the history of the race and the compelling handicapping issues, this is a fantastic race to wager on and watch. The next entry will cover the early favorites.
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Contest Quandary
Good News: According to a column today by Richard Eng in the Las Vegas Review Journal, the National Handicapping Championship (NHC) has found a home at the Red Rock Resort, January 24-26:
http://www.lvrj.com/sports/8757607.html
Bad News: It's the same weekend as the Horseplayer World Series (HPWS)
This puts the contest player in a predicament if they happen to qualify for both tournaments and will hurt the HPWS much more than the NHC. In fact, the NHC as a pure qualifier will be unharmed by the overlapping date, whereas the HPWS with an open enrollment will see a dramatic drop-off of entries.
I qualified for both contests last year and would certainly choose the NHC over the HPWS, a viewpoint I suspect many others share. I've qualified for the HPWS this year, which includes airfare, hotel, and contest entry, but certainly would pass on it if I were forutnate enough to qualify for the NHC at a later date. This is a regrettable situation that no player should be faced with.
This is akin to the lack of cooperation we see as players on a daily basis with account wagering services. Coast Casinos and the HPWS would be wise to change their contest date since a number of NHC players would pony up the $1,000 entry fee should the two major events occur on different dates.
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The Spa (Day 2)
Race 1: Optional Claimer over the hurdles featuring "fat" jocks at 145 - 156 lbs.
Race 2: A logical second time starter wins going wire to wire for Asmussen in a field of seven, five of which were first timers. The D. Wayne Lukas trained Cozy Mesa was a complete non factor for the new partnership of Marylou Whitney/Lukas.
Race 4:
Race 5: Pay Attention easily took the 1 1/8 mile Optional Claimer for Scott Schwartz and Javier Castellano in a race without a standout. He paid a generous $22.60 from the outside post.
Race 6: This evenly matched field was tough to separate (I went 4 deep in the Pick 4). Giant Storm just got up to defeat the game 71:1 longshot Al Sheetahn. The lightly raced gelding was dropping out of the tougher Maiden Special ranks and was trying turf for the second time. Out of
Race 7: Truly Blushed went off as a huge overlay at 14:1. She was the speed of the speed in a 5.5 furlong Stakes on the sod. Trained by
Race 8: The Pletcher trained Ready’s Image looked unbelievable in the paddock prior to the race. The son of More Than Ready ran just about as well as he looked, smoking a strong field of fast two year olds by four at 4:5. One to watch on the
Race 9: Follow My Dream takes the nightcap for the previously 0 for 31 trainer Colum O’Brien. Follow My Dream entered the race 1 for 15 lifetime and is a deep closer. Despite rather average fractions, she was able to close effectively and put an end to a decent run at the Pick 4……Another solid payout of $15.20 at the graveyard of favorites.
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Day One at the Spa
Contrary to the speed biased opening day of the Spa meet last year over the main track, today was slightly slanted against speed:
Race 2: A number of first time starters kicked off quality racing at
Race 3: Won by Lord Snowdon (a certified Presser-“P”) after Scorpius under Garrett Gomez fired off a ¼ in :21.54 and ½ in 44.21. During the previous
Race 6: Won by Again and Again who raced in the middle of the pack after the ¼ and ½, closing to 3rd in the stretch before drawing away by 3. Again and Again is an “E” type, but there were a number of faster early speed horses drawn in this heat. The ¼ in 21.84 and ½ in 44.81 was fast for $20,000 claimers. This was a logical result given the early fractions.
Race 8: A contentious optional claimer at 6 furlongs, the Patrick Biaconne trained Pauillac (cobra venom off) emerged victorious. Pauillac is a stalker (“S”), a running type that only won 3 of 60 races at 6 furlongs last year.
Race 9: Subtle Aly, the impressive Maiden winner from Churchill, won this by a nose after pressing quick fractions. Most of the entrants showed speed in their previous outings and as lightly raced fillies, their running styles were not completely known at the outset. I Promise, the runner up, looked impressive by re-rallying in the stretch to make it an exciting race after losing the lead late.
Race 10: This is the most telling race of the day. For those of you speed point followers, there was not a single early speed type (“E”) of the 12 runners (the highest number of BRIS speed points for a horse in this field was 3 on a 0-8 scale). Given that set of circumstances, one would expect a front running victory. Instead, a dead heat ensued with two Pressers crossing the line without separation after coming from well off the pace.
Day one is in the books with a rare (and in my mind slight) dirt track bias favoring runners coming from off the pace.
Pletcher goes 0 for the card.
The turf course played fair.
There's nothing better than Saratoga.
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A Championship Test
As a horseplayer and sports fan, I found an interesting perspective on handicapping tournaments, major golf championships, and the stiffness of competition. Seems like a stretch, but stay with me for a moment.
I recall an intense debate on what constitutes the fairest test of handicapping ability for our National Championship (NHC). As a player that thrives on a Win-Place contest format, I like the current structure, but disagree that it is the correct design to truly test handicapping abilities at the highest level.
With the blessing of Tevo® in my daily life, I watched just about every second of coverage for both the U.S. Open and Open Championship (British Open), the two toughest tests of the professional golf calendar. What makes these particular tournaments unique is the way they test every shot in the bag. Every ounce of mental energy is necessary, with little margin for error. After all, these are national championship events and should test the players to the maximum.
The NHC should reflect a regular day of handicapping, but at a more intense and testing manner. Sticking with the golf analogy, the U.S. Open is a tougher test than the Greater Milwaukee Open (now called the US Bank). It’s the same game, but played under tougher conditions to test the best. While a local qualifier might be a live bankroll anything goes type of event or a win/place format of some sort, the ultimate test at the NHC should include a more holistic offering.
There are a number of contest formats used for local qualifiers. The most common are listed below:
-Win-Place bets with caps, some mandatory, some optional
-Live bankroll “anything goes”
-UHI format: starting with a set bankroll, the player must wager at least half their cash on each contest race with all single race wagers available.
Certainly, each is filled with subjective positives and negatives. This has been covered in depth in the previous discussion in January and is not the point of this particular entry. My point is that handicapping is much more intricate than simply a win/place contest or simply a live bankroll contest. The NHC should include facets of all different types of wagers to test the best.
Is anyone attending the Colonial Downs NHC qualifier?
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BC Blog
With JP's challenge fresh on my mind, I will lay claim to the original BC Mile (not the new "dirt" Mile) and begin with entries on the subject as soon as possible. The Mile is always an interesting race that usually draws a full field, includes strong European invaders, and produces some fantastic exotic payoffs even with the chalk on top (2000 comes to mind-The Trifecta with War Chant on top paid over $14K).
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Poly Want a Speed Bias?
When it comes to discussions of Polytrack, it is imperative to note the nuances of each particular surface, as no two surfaces to date have produced completely uniform results. In general it is accurate to suggest that speed fails to hold up in the same manner as a traditional dirt track especially with regard to sprint distances, but there are differing degrees. While many handicappers focus on the distinctions between dirt surfaces, little thought is given to how each artificial surface compares to one another. Since the Polytrack discussion on sprint distances was brought up from an earlier post by Caesars Ghost, let’s take a closer look at sprints from three current artificial surfaces and two typical dirt ovals at current meets from recent BRIS stats:
132 races
17% wire to wire
Winners Average Lengths Behind
1st call: 2.5
2nd call: 2.4
56% of races won by “E” or “E/P” Types
104 Races
27% wire to wire
Winners Average Lengths Behind
1st call: 2.4
2nd call: 2.0
62% of races won by “E” or “E/P” Types
Woodbine Poly (6F):
133 Races
30% wire to wire
Winners Average Lengths Behind
1st call: 2.0
2nd call: 2.0
65% of races won by “E” or “E/P” Types
90 Races
44% wire to wire
Winners Average Lengths Behind
1st call: 2.0
2nd call: 1.4
73% of races won by “E” or “E/P” Types
Monmouth Dirt (6F)
167 races
41% wire to wire
Winners Average Lengths Behind
1st call: 1.4
2nd call: 0.8
77% of races won by “E” or “E/P” Types
Although I do not have the data for Keeneland, we know it was the most biased surface perhaps in the history of racing. This brings up some issues with the impending
As to the holistic discussion on the difficulty associated with understanding how the BC Sprint will shape future races, it will definitely make this race, as well as future renewals difficult to handicap as more tracks move to the wax. For now, I’ll take the following mindset:
-Certified front runners that flop on Poly have notable excuses
-No matter how poorly a horse might have run over an artificial surface, at least you can feel pretty confident in the relative soundness of said animal relative to the dirt preps. For the short term, most should have some notable dirt form to fall back on.
-Since the Monmouth surface is playing much like the old Keeneland highway to date, we could see eye popping early fractions in the BC Sprint that are enough to hold off pressing and stalking types.
-The Cushion Track is much fairer to speed than most Poly surfaces, which could aid in the analysis of the
It will be quite interesting to see how things pan out and I agree that the implications could be far reaching…..So often in this game, there are more questions than answers.
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Geary Gets it Right (Again)
Ron Geary once again gets it right. This isn't posted on their website to date. A friend of mine that works at my local track received the press release this morning, so it should be available shortly:
ELLIS OWNERSHIP PURCHASES ALPENA MAGIC FOR NEW CAREER AT ELLIS PARK
Henderson, KY (July 11, 2007) – After scratching from Wednesday’s entries at Ellis Park, track president Ron Geary announced he had privately purchased 17-year-old thoroughbred Alpena Magic from his owner Kenneth Robinette.
“It’s time for a new career for Alpena Magic,” said Geary. “This horse enjoys being around people and the racetrack. His new role will allow him to be our “equine ambassador” for our new Early at Ellis and backside tour programs.”
Retired from racing with over $200,000 in earnings, Alpena Magic was trained by Bill Hicks. Alpena Magic was originally retired at age 15, but retirement didn’t suit him, and he became so depressed those around him didn’t think he would survive. Hicks brought Alpena Magic back to the races and back to a healthy mentality.
Ron Geary was excited to add a new member to his team at Ellis. “I applaud the owner and trainer of this horse for allowing us to give him a new life here at Ellis Park,” said Geary.
Alpena Magic will begin his new career this Saturday as a featured guest at the track’s family-focused Early at Ellis program.
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NTRA
I've decided since the NTRA is having difficulty marketing the game, it would be prudent for them to cover why horseracing is better than selected other sports and activities. Think of it as addition by subtraction. Below is my donation to the marketing effort:
Adult Recreational basketball Leagues: Full of has-beens, never-have-beens, never will-bes, and straight up douche bags. If you like getting hacked and listening to guy that would have been cut from your fourth grade YMCA team talk sh*t to you, this activity is a must. If you like playing with a 5’10”, 265 pound dude that would have difficulty throwing a ball in an ocean and thinks he’s the second coming of Michael Jordan, this is for you.
A new rule was quietly instituted in the year 2000 that requires each adult basketball recreational league to have a minimum of one team using the letter “z” as the last letter in their team name. The most common way to adhere to this rule is through fictitious words such as “ballerz”, “playerz”, or “boyz”. If Noah Webster were alive today to witness this unfortunate trend in team names (in addition to being an amazing 163 years old), he’d probably shoot himself.
Adult Softball Leagues: Although I respect a sport that is entirely devoted to drinking before games, during games, and after the games, I really hate softball. Ten fielders are way too many given the small diamond and the relative girth of the average player. Furthermore, it’s amazing how quickly you can pull a groin or hamstring with the minimal effort it takes to waddle over to first base. My hair isn’t nearly long enough to grow the mandatory softball mullet, so it isn’t a good option for me.
Adult Tennis Leagues: I’ve played in a few of these leagues and they suck. Since most if not all of these leagues are self officiated, you can forget about getting any close calls. In fact, forget about getting any balls called in that are within two feet of the lines. I played in a doubles league where a guy threw a fit because I wasn’t hitting it where he wanted in warm-ups. Apparently there are a lot of the assholes that think they are Bjorn Borg. Unfortunately for these guys, they need to realize (1) Bjorn Borg never played in a Minneapolis Public Tennis league and (2) They aren’t Bjorn Borg. Professional tennis players both past and present enjoy one common attribute: they don’t suck.
Adult Soccer Leagues: I refuse to waste any cynical or sarcastic capital talking about soccer.
Adult Broomball Leagues: This sport is extremely popular in
NBA games are so amazingly boring and poorly played that I’m constantly amazed that people will pay so much of their hard earned money to witness such little effort. Speaking of effort, you hear a lot of references to players giving 110%. I propose a more pragmatic system where the maximum possible effort is equivalent to 100%.
NTRA's new slogan: "Horse racing, it's not really that bad"
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Best Week Ever?
Horseracing is usually filled with bad news, sad stories, and negative press. However, this past week has been an awfully good one:
-A record Pick 6 pool at
-The 4% takeout at Ellis on the Late Pick 4. To make this player friendly wager even juicier, it offers a $0.50 minimum. This could very well be the finest gesture of track management to the player in my lifetime.
-Bay Meadows will remain a thoroughbred horse racing facility for another year. Still destined to become a mixed-use development of some sort, at least the bulldozers will be held off for the short term.
-Lava Man and AP Xcellent provide a fantastic stretch duel in the Gold Cup. There is nothing better in sports than a tight stretch duel with top (well, just about "top" in the handicap division these days) thoroughbred athletes giving their all.
-The NYRA raises
-My local track,
-Handle increased at the Golden Gate spring meet and
-The NTRA announced positive revenues for 2006. Perhaps some of this operating profit will be reinvested to actually help grow the game.
Sure, Biancone was caught with cobra venom in his barn, but hey, it’s been a pretty damn good week. Plus, it was noted in the Form for one of his recent entries next to Lasix as
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Track Naming (Part 3 of 3)
Assiniboia Downs: From the root, “ass”…..you see where this is going, need I say more?
Colonial Downs: Colonial
Montaineer: This track, located in “Wild, Wonderful”
(A) Parties are at night, so racing is at night
(B) Since Mardi Gras means Fat Tuesday in Louisiana English/French, Fat people should be able to come to the track on Tuesday nights and watch live racing
(C) The party needs to continue throughout the year, which is precisely why the season at Mountaineer is so long
(D) Since
Jimmy was a little hammered on Stroh’s when they drew up plans for the oval, which is why the track appears to be on some sort of a bizarre angle. Them boys are somethin’ else, ain’t they!
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