McCarron

Before some preliminary Mile analysis, check this out-

Patrick Biancone's vet, who is named Rod Stewart (really), will appeal the suspension by the Kentucky Racing Commission. How will sexy Rod respond to the appeal? Perhaps with an updated collection of greatest hits featuring:

"Vials of Cobra Venom, you wear it well"

"Some guys have all the luck. Some guys horses feel no pain. Some guys get all the breaks. Some French guys cheat and then complain"

"Who else is gonna bring you, a broken vial"

"Are the stars out tonight? I don't know if it's cloudy or bright. Cause I only have eyes for you dear, and I can't feel my frickin' hoof"

Enough of that already....

Remarkable News (15:1 Wynn Future Line/15% supplement) sports 7 wins on 6 different tracks since last March. The versatile front runner is capable of exploits beyond a mile, but all signs point to a potential BC Mile start. Scratched out of the Fourstardave Handicap at Saratoga with Colic, he's now aiming for the Woodbine Mile. As a four year old, he ran in the Woodbine Mile without success, but is a better horse this year at five. A threat.

Ramonti (15:1 Wynn Future Line) The Godolphin charge ridden by Frankie Dettori took the 1 Mile Queen Anne Stakes at Ascot by a nose in a blanket finish. Ramonti gave up the lead to Jeremy and looked destined for minor placings. Jeremy drifted badly to the far rail with a 1/16 to go and allowed Ramonti to get back in the race. Need to see more.

George Washington (12:1 Wynn Future Line) George Washington never looked comfortable in the Queen Anne Stakes, but rallied belatedly for a closely beaten fourth place effort in his first race back since the 2006 Breeders' Cup Classic. George Washington is eligible to improve by leaps and bounds and is one to keep an eye on. He very well could have won the BC Mile last year instead of attempting the Classic and this year will hopefully provide a shot at redemption should he make the trip. Respect.

Marcavelly (20:1 Wynn Future Line) was the hard luck runner up in the race with too long of a name, the Grade II National of Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes at Saratoga. After staging a nice rally in mid-stretch, he ran out of racing room along the rail, took back, and re-rallied to barely lose to Nobiz Like Shobiz at the wire. He was much the best in that race. His previous effort over the Monmouth lawn as a two year old resulted in an easy win, which is quite encouraging. This three year old is loaded with talent, but at this point, he appears a notch below the top contenders. Not tossing yet.

Shakis (35:1 Wynn Future Line) flopped as the favorite in the Bowling Green after a close third in the Manhattan behind Better Talk Now and English Channel with a rough trip down the stretch. He bounced back while returning to a more suitable 1 1/8 distance to break the 34 year old track record at Saratoga over an extremely firm (Have you seen the dirt flying up around the first turn?) turf course. It's unclear if he'll point to the Mile, but expect that 35:1 line to drop quite a bit off that effort. Respect.

A brief piece by Steve Anderson of DRF (Wednesday the 22^nd) quotes John Sadler as reluctant to send Crossing the Line to the BC Mile due to the $300,000 supplemental fee:

http://www.drf.com/news/article/87833.html

"Right now, I'd say we wouldn't put up the money,"

While I’m not sold on his chances, I’d hate to see this horse pass on the race. Perhaps it’s time to alter the requirements for nominating horses to the Cup races. It’s a shame that economics would keep the top horses from running on the marquee day for racing. How sad is it that well heeled horse owners are forced to pass on the Cup because of money? These are some of the wealthiest people in the country and they cannot, and in most cases should not, pony up this kind of money for a single horse race.

The Breeders’ Cup website lays out some rules for early foal and standard foal nominations which stand at a reasonable $500 fee. The late foal nomination triples to $1,500, but still is within a reasonable proportion to the purse money offered for Breeders’ Cup races. Nominating horses of racing age jumps to a $150,000 fee for a horse from a nominated stallion and a $250,000 fee for a horse from a non-nominated stallion. The website also provides these tidbits:

Horses sired by nominated stallions (in the year of conception) but not nominated at any time during their racing careers may be supplemented to the Breeders' Cup World Championships at a cost of 9% of the purse. They cannot be supplemented to the Breeders' Cup Stakes program.

If a horse is sired by a stallion not nominated to any program and is not nominated at any time during its racing career, that horse may be supplemented to the Breeders' Cup World Championships at a cost of 15% of the purse.

Crossing the Line fits into the 15% category, which is a shame. I’m by no means an expert on this confusing nomination process, and perhaps I’m missing something, but it appears to punish the foreign horses unfairly. The Breeders’ Cup after all is named the “World Championships”. In the Mile division alone, the following horses with ten or more points in the division require supplemental fees:

Able Won (NZ)-Crossing the Line (NZ)-Remarkable News (VEN)-Wordly(GB)-Stormy River (FR)-Einstein (BRZ)

Not only does this system punish top foreign horses, but the South American breds all require a 15% fee versus the 9% fee of the Europeans. The modestly bred horse from Oklahoma, Kip Deville, also would owe a 15% fee to enter the starting gate.

Again, I may be missing something here as the nomination requirements are a bit confusing, but the system appears to discriminate against South American, European, and modestly bred horses to an unfair extent. It amounts to a bit of horse “racism” or at the very least, some snobby attitudes.

Hmmm....Do you think Angel Cabrera and Lee Westwood had to pay more to enter the U.S. Open than Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson?

Commentary for the BC Mile is an enigmatic exercise given the amount of speculation on what horses will in fact actually run in the race on October 27^th. Historically, some well accomplished milers have skipped the race to take a shot at the Classic (Starcraft, George Washington) or pass on the Cup races all together to stay in Europe.  

 
I would gladly provide a “Top Ten” list or something similar where like Nostradamus, I’m able to predict in order how the Mile will play out. I’ve already griped about the merits of “listing” on the Triple Crown trail, so I won’t completely revisit this topic other than to explain why you won’t see any listing in this space for the BC Mile at any time. By the way….did any of the Top 20 lists produce the winning five cent Icosa-Fecta (20 horses in exact order) in the Derby??

 
Here is my analysis of selected hopefuls in no particular order at this moment in time:

 
Shakespeare (25:1 Wynn Future Line) is an intriguing sort off that insane comeback effort on August 2^nd in an allowance race at the Spa. Closing from last to first in a race with some very nice foes (including Art Master), he looked powerful and well within himself. He will be pointed to the Woodbine Mile for a logically spaced prep race (September 16) before the BC Mile. Regression or something less than an all out effort in the Woodbine Mile would be fitting given that monster effort off the shelf, so even a lukewarm showing in that race would substantiate a trip to the Jersey Shore. It certainly is easy to forget that Shakespeare went postward as the second choice in the 2005 BC Turf, where he ran up the track over the Belmont sod. This race has produced some winners off of long layoffs (Da Hoss) and some off lightly raced grass campaigns (War Chant). Look out.

 
After Market (10:1 Wynn Future Line) is listed as the leading candidate by accumulated points within the division…However, I would be surprised to see him in the Mile based on recent events. He was a scratch in the 1 ¼ Mile Arlingon Million with softer turf conditions than the connections were seeking. According to a Blood Horse article on 8/11/2007, trainer John Sheriffs is hinting at running the Storm Cat colt in the BC Classic. If they pass on the Classic, the Turf is a more likely spot for After Market as his next proposed race is in the 1 3/8 Mile Del Mar Handicap.  

Kip Deville (20:1 Wynn Future Line/15% supplement) is a four year old colt that has cooled off of late after an explosive string of Graded Stakes wins. He took the Grade III Sir Beaufort, the day after Christmas at Santa Anita in a race against a tremendously deep field. Awesome Gem (2^nd) and Zann (3^rd) rounded out the Trifecta. Check out this list of also-rans: Porto Santo, In Summation, Get Funky, Bedlam Bertie, Lightning Hit, Like Running Water, Tent, Crested, and Sartorial. He followed that victory with a win in the Grade I Frank Kilroe Mile over Bayeux, Silent Name, and Porto Santo. His Graded Stakes Trifecta was capped with a win in the Makers Mark Mile at Keeneland over the ultra game Showing Up. Three excellent horses, Bayeux, Sky Conqueror, and Remarkable News, were also-rans in this contentious heat showing he is very tough on his best form. Since that impressive run, Kip Deville threw in two clunkers at Hollywood Park and failed to make much noise in the Oceanport at Monmouth. His recent performance is suspect, but any return to form from earlier in the year puts him in the mix. He could just need a freshening off a busy 2007 campaign. The ownership of Kip Deville will need to pony up the supplemental fee to enter. This is a colt that might have peaked early in the year and may never revert back to that brilliance. Stay tuned.

 
Crossing the Line (30:1 Wynn Future Line prior to the Del Mar Mile/15% supplement) improved to 5 out of 6 lifetime and earned an automatic berth to the BC Mile with his game ¾ length victory in the Del Mar Mile. He was tested for after two consecutive Optional Claiming scores over the weeds at Hollywood Park. The bullet drill in 1:12 and 4/5 over the surface hinted he was sitting on a big one and the betting public made him the 2:1 second choice (M/L 9:2). Michael Baze might have moved the disappointing Out of Control to the lead a bit prematurely after contesting a quick early pace, but there was likely no stopping Crossing the Line today. The final time was scary good, so this guy clearly is a talent to keep an eye on. The relative strength of this field was a bit weak, but you have to admire the consistency of this lightly raced five year old gelding. Not sold.

Continued tomorrow……

I’ve selected the Mile as my Breeders’ Cup race to cover for the next three months since it’s a race that is always enjoyable to watch. There is usually a bit of intrigue in the Mile and the major reasons are three-fold:

 
1. It combines the American emphasis and current strength (until synthetic tracks gradually reverse that trend) of speed with the European domination of Turf racing. Unlike other races that clearly give one side of the pond an advantage over the other such as the Sprint (U.S.) or the Turf (Europe), the Mile is generally wide open with an intriguing field. U.S. based horses have captured 13 Mile titles compared with 9 for the Europeans.

 
2. It requires a good trip to win with up to 14 horses traveling a relatively short distance around two turns.                     

 
3. Each Turf course is distinctly different in a manner that moves certain horses up or down accordingly. In addition, the condition of the ground on Cup day is equally important.

 
My most memorable Mile highlights:

-Leriodesanimaux entered the 2005 renewal of the BC Mile as heavy favorite, but was narrowly defeated by Artie Schiller. An early announcement on BC day confirmed that Leriodesanimaux would be fitted with a Bar Shoe, usually the sign of a foot issue. Despite running over a northeastern Turf course (shipping from SoCal) with a foot problem, he still ran his guts out to narrowly miss.  

-Six Perfections, trained by Pascal Bary who also won the race with Domedriver in 2002, wins the 2003 Mile at Santa Anita. An important handicapping hint for this race on a regular basis is to watch video replays of the European races. I watched Six Perfections run a fantastic Prep overseas and was instantly sold on the horse. It’s tough to base your selections on current form alone when handicapping the races from overseas. Six Perfections is also a half sister to two time BC Mile winner, Miesque.
 

-Domedriver upsets the heavily favored Rock of Gibraltar at odds of 26:1 in the 2002 event at Arlington Park. The European exacta returns $152.60. I was at Arlington sitting in the makeshift grandstands near the final turn to the homestretch where the Shadwell Mile winner Landseer broke down during the race. It was one of the saddest turn of events I’ve ever seen on track. It was a hellacious looking injury and the poor animal still ran as far as he could with a fractured cannon bone. There were people in the stands crying, it was just plain awful. Anyone that thinks racing fans are a group of heartless gamblers is full of crap.

 
-The 1999 race proved why this race is so much fun to watch. Four horses, Silic, Tuzla, Docksider, and Lend a Hand were within a length of one another in a blanket finish at Gulfstream Park.

 
-1998 will be remembered as one of the greatest training accomplishments in modern times. Michael Dickinson, the “mad genius” enters Da Hoss, the 1996 Mile champion. He missed the entire 1997 campaign and used a single prep race in the fall of 1998, which was an allowance race at Colonial Downs. Da Hoss encountered a fierce stretch battle with Hawksley Hill and prevailed by a head to win the BC Mile. Amazing.

 
-Spinning World wins the 1997 Mile in 1:32.77. That’s right, 1:32.77.

 
-Lure fails to win his third BC Mile in a row in the 1994 Mile when Barathea wins easily.

 
-1991: Opening Verse pays $55.40 under a great ride by Patrick Valenzuela.

 
-1988: The brilliant French filly, Miesque captures the title for the second year in a row

 
-1986: Last Tycoon pays $73.80

 
With an average $2 win ticket paying $21.07 over the history of the race and the compelling handicapping issues, this is a fantastic race to wager on and watch. The next entry will cover the early favorites.