McCarron

-War Pass, impressive in victory will be the victim of too much, too soon (113 Beyer in the Juvenile). How often have we seen young horses run out their minds in one or two efforts never to be heard from again? This need the lead type is exactly the kind of overrated Triple Crown prospect that always disappoints. The over/under for his retirement is March 30, 2008.

 
-I twice made the proclamation that English Channel was the worst 5:2 morning line in the history of the Breeders’ Cup (5:1 seemed more reasonable to me at the time). There is nothing quite like eating a hardy helping of humble pie. I could blame the ground, but I won’t. The BC makes good handicappers look bad and bad handicappers look worse. I’m trying to find a word to describe how bad my prediction was. I’m not smart enough, nor is my vocabulary vast enough to find proper description. How does “poopie” sound?

 
-I found myself chasing too many prices in the 11 BC races. Sometimes, it is best to take what the race gives you. It’s easy to get overly cute, especially when the favorites are filled with uncertainty (first time around two turns, attempting sloppy or soft conditions for the first time, and/or coming back off a huge career best effort are three such scenarios).

 
-Although I rarely play Superfectas, the dime minimum seemingly had the effect of eroding value. Across the board, those Super payouts were horribly low.

 
-The GW incident is still lingering in my mind and is tough to get over. It’s part of the game, but immensely sad and difficult to witness. I’d much rather see one of these $15 Million a year spoiled, lazy NBA or MLB jerks break down than any hard trying, thoroughbred athlete that runs their ass off every single race. And yes, I prefer most horses to most humans.   

 
-Someone on the bus ride back to our hotel from Monmouth mentioned that ESPN was showing ample footage of horses breaking down from big races of the past. I have no idea whether this is true, but if it is, deplorable doesn’t even begin to describe it. This is not NASCAR. The human and equine athletes have precious little safety mechanisms in place. Rubbernecking is an unfortunate by-product of American culture. I just hope that this rumor is false and the production crew wasn’t as blatantly irresponsible to have shown such footage. 

-With all of the pre-BC mention of “trends” as is the case prior to the Derby, the only important outcome is the end of day ROI.

It’s raining so hard here at home in Norhtern Jersey (about an hour from Monmouth), that it just woke me up (6:00AM). Expect the track to be even worse today with isolated thunderstorms included in the already dismal forecast.

Some thoughts from yesterday-

-The track may have been listed as “Sloppy and “Yielding”, but “Oceany” and “Boggy” was more like it. The steady rain is unfortunate, but in many ways predictable given Northeastern weather in late October.

-If you think you’re a good handicapper, try picking winners in the Breeders’ Cup on a consistent basis. While you’re at it, add in a tsunami. It’s tough out there folks, but today is another day.

-Early in the day, I felt the off track played pretty fairly, without an inherent bias. As the card wore on, the main track was tilted a bit toward horses coming from off the pace. Legitimate, classy speed horses were backing up sooner than you would expect. Even the insane pace duel produced in the F&M resulted in a premature speed and fade.

-The late Pick four began with the second longest shot on the board winning, an invader from rainy Emerald Downs, blowing up most tickets. The chart comment on my late Pick-4 ticket read, “broke slowly (in air)-no factor”.

-The pace duel between Dream Rush, LaTraviata, and Shaggy Mane materialized, and all four missed hitting the Superfecta. A logical play given the pace setup and track condition, Maryfield, prevailed at 8:1. The two favorites in a ten race field finished off the board with the longest shot in the race finishing second. Here are the exotics:

$2 EX: $374.80

$1 TRI: $878.40

$1 SUP: $6787

Those prices are WAY too light given this outcome…….

-NOWNOWNOW and ACHILL ISLAND ran one two in the Juvenile Turf after running over most of the track in dead last and second to last. PRUSSIAN crawled through 3/4 in 1:15 and still faded badly. The final time of 140.48 was ultra slow compared to the 139.31 run by two year old fillies on the undercard in race 6… Did the track get that much tougher over the course of an hour and twenty minutes or is this group just weak? If this form holds, a quality deep closer like EXCELLENT ART should be tough to beat in the Mile. I was disappointed that GIO PONTI, who defeated NOWNOWNOW in their previous tilt, did not fair better.

-The Dirt Mile showed that Discreet Cat is no longer the monster he once was. He looked uncomfortable, similar to his effort in the Vosburgh. The enigmatic CORINTHIAN floated away by 6.5 lengths to cap a $24,235 Pick 4. Congrats if you held that winning ticket, you deserve it.

I plan on making the swim to Monmouth bright and early tomorrow, floaties firmly planted on each bicep.

Good luck.

Over the next week, horseracing will get a little bit of needed mainstream press. 10-15 minute segments on local sports radio talk shows, an even shorter amount on the national ESPN/FOX radio talk shows, and a shorter amount yet on programs such as Sportscenter….

The local and national horseracing media could do a lot of good for the sport by promoting the enormous payouts that exemplify the Breeders’ Cup card instead of spending the entire length of the segment talking up the main contenders and analyzing races. The core group of horseplayers is already on board and care very little about dumbed down, surface level type analysis necessary to reach a broader sports audience with little familiarity of the Sport of Kings. While it’s important to provide analysis of a championship event, equal time should be spent on key information the uninformed public should know. 

The lottery/slot machine type of mentality is an engrained cultural norm in the U.S. The easier the form of gambling, the more popular it is. Every racing expert should make it clear that the average Superfecta payoff over the last 8 years is $34,838 when making appearances on a national level. Twice the Pick-6 payout was over $2.5 Million—this must be emphasized. The public needs to know that the BC is able to provide them with a pie in the sky dream of a “big jackpot” with the added element of championship athletes competing at the highest level. Watching ping-pong balls shoot out of a giant popcorn maker is hardly a rewarding spectator sport. They can wager and watch the action unfold on television and get a bigger thrill than they are currently receiving with the lottery.

The fact that most people wouldn’t know how to handicap is irrelevant. Most people don’t want to take the time to learn. They want something easy and thrilling. Picking numbers for the lottery is a pursuit without skill. For these types, so is choosing numbers for a Superfecta or Pick-6.

It’s time to get this game in the forefront and improve handle by appealing to the masses on their amateurish level.

 
Since I have yet to receive the BC edition of Horseplayer Magazine and I’m getting antsy, I ventured over to my local Borders to check out the wide array of periodicals hoping that by some miracle, they carry it. After sifting through such popular titles as Urn Collector Monthly and one hugely near accidental peak at the cover of Playgirl, I failed to unearth a copy.

I ventured over to the customer service desk knowing full well the conversation would result in a dumb look and even dumber advice. I asked the clerk if they carried Horseplayer Magazine. First, he kind of snickered at me. I wanted to tell him that he’s in his late 50s and works and Borders, so shut your pie hole, but thought better of it and continued my pointless quest. He found the name Horseplayer Magazine on his little periodical list printed from some sort of Dot-Matrix device and said, “There may be one copy, but for some reason, if it is on hand, it’s in the Sports section”.

Trying to remain calm, I casually state that, “Horseracing is a sport”. He replies with, “Well, not an active sport”.

Okay. Is fantasy football an active sport, because there are 48 of those magazines on the sport rack? Furthermore, when you attend a sporting event such as baseball, football, basketball, or hockey, you are merely a fan. You’re not actually playing the sport. How is horseracing any different? It’s in fact more active with the wagering/analyzing component.

On a related side-note, I mentioned in an email to some of my former co-workers that I will be on a local Minneapolis sports radio talk show on Sunday morning to chat about the Breeders’ Cup. I kid you not; one of them actually replied back, “what do you breed?” in complete and utter seriousness.

It’s not easy being a horseplayer.

Good: The mainstream press will latch on to the BC Classic given the presence of several familiar players from the Triple Crown scene.

Bad: Most if not all of those very players will likely retire after the race.

Good: Curlin is an impressive looking athlete, muscular and fit.

Bad: So is Barry Bonds.

Good: Hopefully soon after the BC, Patrick Bianconne will no longer have the opportunity to use Cobra Venom to nullify the impact of various ailments on his horses.

Bad: I just went long on Cobra Venom stock.

Good: A main track for 2007 that consists of a strange racing surface called, “dirt”.

Bad: Student Council is the early favorite for the 2008 Classic

Good: Randy Moss covering the Cup

Bad: Hank Goldberg covering the Cup. Does he have incriminating photos of an ESPN executive?

Good: The outstanding quality of racing on Cup day(s).

Bad: The atrocious quality of racing until next spring. Get the Anti-freeze surface warmed up for state-breds (or cooled down).

 
Good: The amount of healthy disagreements handicappers will get into prior to the cup routed in strong, well thought out handicapping.

Bad: The varying level of excuses for why those strong opinions failed to materialize.

Quick aside: I just turned on the TV to try to find something to watch that is not a “reality show”. There are four episodes of one form or another of Law & Order running concurrently…..

The advent of artificial surfaces has produced quite a lengthy debate amongst both horseplayers and industry leaders. We all know the arguments for and against, so let’s not revisit the whole macro level conversation.

 
What I would like to briefly comment on is the use of the term bias is it relates to recent comments about the Keeneland surface. At first, punters were worried that the surface would be too fair, thus eroding pari-mutuel value. In fact, Mr. Half-Empty himself, A. Beyer, was whining before he witnessed a single solitary race that the game is hard enough without the introduction of a bias free racing surface ruining his precious edge. That was certainly not the case as Keeneland quickly became the most biased surface in the history of plastic, silica, dirt, turf, or pavement and box car mutuels ensued.

 
I agree that there was a prevailing rail bias at Keeneland over the weekend; this has been prevalent at many other times during their shortened meets. As an anecdotal comment, horses typically win with a sweeping move anywhere from three to eight wide in the final turn. I think it shows that it is just as prone to bias as the “old fashion” dirt ovals and that can be a pretty good thing.

 
I’m more concerned about the recent breakdowns......I’m a big synthetic surface apologist. If, over time, it is found to be no safer than a typical dirt surface this whole new paradigm is worthless. I’ll watch and wager on races that are slow if it means saving lives. I’ll start to avoid the new wax altogether if the safety issue was just fools gold.

Wow. I have no idea what Jamie Sanders is like on a personal level, but she must be the ultimate saleswoman. She inexplicably has enough owners to have started horses in 229 races in 2007 with 5 total wins. Teuflesberg won 2 races from 9 starts. Therefore, Ms. Sanders is 3 for 220 (1%) with the remaining stock.

 
Teuflesberg is a hard knocking individual that fought through some of the poorest spotting (or lack thereof) of a race horse in modern training history. In the last 12 month period (October to October) he’s run 14 times at six different distances, on three uniquely different surfaces (Poly, Grass, Dirt), at 7 different tracks. He’s run sprints on dirt, a one turn mile on grass, routes on dirt, routes on Polytrack, and routes on the lawn. The horse is a consummate professional and it’s awful that his mismanagement could have had much to do with his now shortened career.

 
Good trainers always have a course of action for their horses to maximize their potential. Nafzger is the most obvious example and it’s been well publicized of late. Hopefully, she’ll learn how to train a racehorse. Until that time, if I’m an owner of any thoroughbred race horse, I’d keep them at least 500 feet away from her.