McCarron

Here are my constructive tidbits on how to improve the NHC:

(1) Building off the piece in the most recent issue of Horseplayer Magazine, I’m in complete agreement that the concept of “beard” players is a huge problem. In the NHC last year, I was sitting behind a woman that was reading Vouge for most of Day 2. Maybe the newest winter trends are occurring at fashionable Ozone Park at Aqueduct and I’m completely missing something. She was not to be outdone by the young woman sitting behind me that stated in the players’ bio printout that she only handicaps horse races in “tournaments”. Why not just write “patsy” on the questionnaire and move on.

The NHC needs to either (A) Allow players to qualify under their own name more than once or (B) Create a rule against stand-in players and stick to the one entry per person rule. I’m heavily in the (B) option camp of allowing one entry per person. Since several players are bragging about their fake players and the NHC is well aware of it, one of these two options is a necessity.

(2) While this is by no means just the fault of the NHC alone, the HPWS and NHC should never be on the same day. I understand there are plans in the works to shuttle players back and forth from the two events in an attempt to make it work for players that qualified for the NHC and paid into the HPWS or qualified for both. This is too little too late and is asking a lot from the horseplayer. These major events require careful preparation and focus and the logistics of handicapping and attending both events is a virtual impracticality.

I qualified for the HPWS and by doing so, eliminated myself from future NHC qualifying attempts. The player should never be put in a situation where they must skip qualifying events for the national title contest. The authors of the NHC piece alluded to this in another context by refusing to attempt and qualify other players under their name. In the same vein, I cannot in good faith (nor would I for the sake of practicality) try to be in two places at once (with either the shuttle or with a fake McCarron) on the biggest day of the handicapping calendar. Had I known in advance that the two events would take place on the same day, I would have only tried to qualify for the NHC.

(3) Hopefully the new venue will solve the space issue. Bally’s is crammed, with many participants forced to sit in areas outside of the main contest seating. It’s not fair to many entrants to be in what amounts to the cheap seats while others are on the fifty yard line.

(4) The number of tracks available for optional plays should be extended. There is no reason to limit the number of tracks given the plethora of venues available on a typical Friday-Saturday. It seems arbitrary to only have a set number of tracks. Open up the possibilities and let the players truly find races that they are comfortable with for the optional portion of the contest.

(5) Eliminate the “team” cash rewards. Most of the time, participants on the same “team” rarely sit together. Additionally, the prizes for individual performances are so much greater than the “team” aspect, that there is no need for differing strategy. That is, many individuals will rightly bomb away near the end if they are within a mathematical shot of the title. A larger team prize would necessitate a different approach of working together to win, perhaps by a more conservative strategy. If the NHC is truly to embrace the “team” concept, teammates should be seated together with more money available to the winning team. In its current form, the team component should be scratched, with those earmarked funds turned over to the individual prize pool.

I had a long day at work today and don’t feel like crafting an essay on my thoughts about cheating (which are quite long winded). There are already some very well done blogs on the subject, so I’ll wind down this evening with some lighter fare. Don’t take any of this too seriously:

Pletcher may cheat, but he gets great stock

Even Jamie Sanders could win with those horses

Nah, that’s a complete crock (Get it? She’s awful.)

Cobra venom can help you win at a high click

I keep it around the barn since I’m a cheating prick

Who am I you ask?

I’m the trainer from the land of the Basque

40% off the claim?

That is entirely too lame

Is anyone truly that adept at their craft?

Who cares, to the bank they all will laugh

Frankel, Dutrow, Plecther, and Lake

Training for the world’s elite, those from Dubai and Kuwait

The Sultans will pray a the Pagoda

While Mullins prepares the bicarbonate soda

Breakage is the real crime that can really suck

Sometimes the track can make you feel like a schmuck

Stealing your hard earned cash

And charging $4 for a Diet Pepsi seems kind of brash

Taking down a huge Pick six on a four dollar stab?

That smells worse than a rotting scab

At least the Breeders cup is void of such tricks

With the lone exception of those frat buddy pricks

What about the IRS and Uncle Sam?

Taxing exotics in a usurious scam

Stop taking so much off the top

Making my bank account unfairly drop

Hopefully Curlin was legitimate Preakness gold

Nobody saw Asmussen with his hands on something controlled

Cheating trainers will always be a legit thing

The Woodbine Mile features the deepest field of the year for eight furlong lawn specialists. The full field of fourteen includes six Grade I winners. Here is a breakdown of the top contenders and how I would use $75-$80 worth of spending money:

#1 Host (CHI) 15/1ML: The Todd Pletcher trained seven year old has failed to win a Graded Stakes race since October 2005 when he defeated nine rivals in the classy Shadwell Mile at Keeneland. His ten previous races have been run over seven different tracks, including two efforts in Dubai. A mile is probably his best distance and the September 2^nd drill is encouraging. However, he is better suited for softer competition at the Grade II and Grade III level and his deep closing style is a huge knock against in a race with little early zip.

#2 Becrux (ITY) 5/1ML: The Neil Drysdale trained five year old gelding is 8 for 14 lifetime at the distance and is the defending champion of this event. He clearly relishes the Woodbine sod, but is up against a deep Grade I field. His only victory since the Woodbine Mile triumph was against Cal-Breds at Del Mar. In this spot, a lifetime best is necessary.

#3 Shakespeare 3/1ML: This lightly raced six year old enters this race with a 6 for 7 career record. His lone defeat occurred in the 2005 BC Turf where a tendon injury rendered him a non factor. His remarkable return to the racetrack at the Spa on August 2^nd has received quite a bit of ink, and rightly so. Following a string of swift workouts, he unleashed a powerful turn of foot to defeat a nice field of optional claimers at the Spa from last to first. Shakespeare is loaded with talent, but does not need a monster effort here. In fact, a regression second off the long layoff is excusable. I like him better for the top spot in the BC Mile, but he is still a huge threat here.

**Shakespeare has failed to register a single point in the BC standings due to the long layoff. Let's hope he performs well enough to earn his way in (through the accrual of BC points from fairing well today), since you'd hate to leave it to the field selection gurus. The Woodbine Mile is not a "win and you're in" event, despite featuring the best Mile field of the year. This group is infinitely better than the weak Del Mar Mile, which did provide an automatic berth.

#4 Sky Conqueror 6/1ML: You have to admire the consistency of the hard knocker for firing just about every race. Nine of his last ten races have resulted in a triple digit Beyer fig. The strongest locally based hopeful is better suited for distances well beyond today's eight furlong affair. This is likely a springboard for the Canadian International and there are several solid Mile specialists better suited to the distance.

#5 Kip Deville 12/1ML: Kip Deville is a four year old colt that has cooled off of late after an explosive string of Graded Stakes wins. He took the Grade III Sir Beaufort, the day after Christmas at Santa Anita in a race against a tremendously deep field. He followed that victory with a win in the Grade I Frank Kilroe Mile over Bayeux, Silent Name, and Porto Santo. His Graded Stakes Trifecta was capped with a win in the Makers Mark Mile at Keeneland over the ultra game Showing Up. He defeated two of today's rivals, Sky Conqueror and Remarkable News, in that contentious heat showing he is very tough on his best. His recent form is suspect, but he ran well in the Oceanport off a short layoff. His last two published A.M. drills were absolute scorchers, so I believe Dutrow could very well have him back on track. He's six for eight lifetime at the distance and the price is right. Looking for a huge effort at a nice price.....

#9 Remarkable News (VEN) 8/1ML: Just like Sky Conqueror, Remarkable News is a picture of consistency (Ten straight triple digit Beyer efforts). The five year old from the Angel Penna Jr. barn is versatile enough to run with the lead or pressing the pace. Without a certified front running miler drawn in, Remarkable News is a threat to take these gate to wire. His recent worktab is sharp, an encouraging sign after fighting colic.

#11 Art Master 4/1ML: The Juddmonte homebred six-year old has the looks of Fool's Gold. A beaten favorite in five of his last seven, he has only seen the winners circle once stateside at Belmont over a relatively soft field in the GIII Poker Handicap. He was a game second to Shakespeare in that freaky comeback effort and fired off a nice workout the morning of September 6^th. I'm leaning against the unproven commodity, at an underlayed morning line, against a brutal field.

#14 Le Cinquieme Essai 15/1ML: The locally based old timer draws a tough post against a deep field, but could add some excitement to the exotics. He boasts a game effort against both Remarkable News and Sky Conqueror over the strip and possesses some early solid early lick in a race that appears to lack a ton of legitimate early pace. He's seven for eight lifetime cracking the trifecta at the distance and has a clear affinity for the surface.

In the wide open affair, and as much as I respect Shakespeare, I'll go with a strategy of keying Remarkable News and Kip Deville:

$1 Triactor: 5,9 with 2,3,4,5,9,14 with 2,3,4,5,9,14 ($40)

$5 Exactor Box: 5,9 ($10)

$20 Win: 5 ($20)

$3 Exactor: 3 with 5,9 ($6) $2 Exactor: 5,9 with 3 ($2)

The last Quinella I played was in 1999 at the Raynham-Taunton Greyhound Park......

Classic: Any Given Saturday and Street Sense

Turf: Dylan Thomas and Manduro

Distaff: Rags to Riches and Lady Joanne

Mile: Shakespeare and Darjina--The filly just beat the boys, George Washington and Ramonti, in the Prix du Moulin. More on this in an upcoming BC Mile Blog....

Sprint: Discreet Cat and Midnight Lute

Filly & Mare Turf: Mandesha and Peeping Fawn

Juvenile: Ready's Image and Kodiak Cowboy

Juvenile Fillies: Irish Smoke and Tasha's Miracle

Juvenile Turf: Prussian and Big Brown

Filly & Mare Sprint: La Traviata and Dream Rush

Dirt Mile: Hard Spun (huge mistake if he points to the Classic) and Grasshopper (Not sure he'll run here either)

There are (sadly) only four horse races a year that have a legitimate amount of press, fanfare, and national attention: The Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Belmont, and Breeders’ Cup Classic. Due to the increased public awareness surrounding the Classic, expect Street Sense to be a huge underlay on October 28^th.

Street Sense is one the most talented young horses ever to set foot on a track. With wins in the BC Juvenile, Kentucky Derby, and Travers, plus a narrow nose defeat in the Preakness, he is already an icon in the racing world. However, he is also the one horse people outside of the niche racing community can identify. Less informed money will be a big part of the mutuel pools on Cup day with opinions formulated from a bank of knowledge far inferior to the regular horseplayer.

I remember getting ready to leave my office in the fall of 2002 to attend the Breeders’ Cup at Arlington Park. My boss at the time slipped me a $100 bill and asked that I make a win bet for him on War Emblem in the Classic. This $100 win bet was not the result of pouring over the Form, watching video replays, and carefully handicapping the field. This was the result of looking at the entries in the newspaper and simply identifying the Derby winner. He finished 8^th at 4:1 in one of the weakest Classic fields in history. War Emblem is no Street Sense, so expect this example to magnify exponentially with the feel good stories and 15 second Sportscenter spots that will most definitely focus on the Derby winner (and rightly so).

Past blogs will show my huge support of Street Sense throughout his three year old campaign. However, past performance is no guarantee of future success and he is vulnerable in the Classic. It’s not always the best horse that wins; it’s the best horse for the given conditions, at a particular point in time, under a particular set of circumstances.

Lawyer Ron has emerged from the Spa a handicap division monster. Perhaps he is a Saratoga horse for the course, but even so, he is the cream of the crop and leader of the “older horse” handicap division.

Any Given Saturday is maturing at an astonishing rate. Despite his 0 for 2 record head to head against Street Sense, he has several points in his favor. His tactical speed suits the heavily speed favoring Monmouth strip as evidenced by his crushing Haskell effort where he made the Preakness winner and Derby runner up look ordinary. Any Given Saturday’s Haskell was a much more impressive race than Street Sense barely edging out Grasshopper in the Travers, while again showing some signs of laziness in the stretch.

Nafzger’s ability to find a way to get his horses to peak at the right time is well documented and well deserved, so some may argue he wasn't fully cranked for the weak Travers field. However, listening to the post Travers’ interview, it’s evident Nafzger and Tafel both feel the Mid-Summer Classic is the second most important race of the three old season. Street Sense was fully prepared for the race and won showing the heart of a champion in the final sixteenth. Nevertheless, while Grasshopper is an exciting horse, he is much less accomplished than Curlin and Hard Spun, who Any Given Saturday crushed at Monmouth.

Street Sense was a much better horse than Any Given Saturday on May 5^th. Any Given Saturday may very well be a better horse on October 27^th. As much as I genuinely respect and love Street Sense, he is vulnerable in this spot. At this point in time, and a lot can happen between now and the classic, I prefer Any Given Saturday as the three year old with the most potential to take the Classic with Lawyer Ron completing the exacta.