It pains me to say this, but I’m afraid our own Judge Joey Dak is proliferating horrible advice to the public in his NTRA Derby Futures Blog. The aim of all professional handicapping writers is to provide sound advice since many horseplayers display horrible habits on a regular basis. The worst habitual handicapping no-no that I see is the constant firing away at chalk/overplaying of favorites. There isn’t a profitable player alive that can put the ROI in the black playing chalk on a regular or even semi-regular basis. Joey Dak is helping promote the proliferation of a poor habit by not only playing Pyro once in the Derby Futures pool at 5:1, but by firing away again on the horse in the subsequent pool at odds that awarded him a price of 9:2.

Here are Joe’s selections:

Pool 1

$50 on Pyro at 5-1

$25 on Colonel John at 19-1

$15 on Crown of Thorns at 18-1 (off the trail)

$10 on Denis of Cork at 46-1

Pool 2

$60 on Pyro (hoping for 7-2, doubt I'll get it).

$20 on Colonel John (would like 22-1)

$20 on Denis of Cork (please give me 15-1).

Pyro grabs $110 worth of wagers from Joey Dak at 5:1 and 9:2 respectively. Now, I ask you, why take Pyro at a blended rate (a touch lower with a weighted average based on his unequal wager size) of roughly 4.75:1 several weeks prior to the Derby when he could very well go off at a similar range on May 5^th? Even if he enters the starting gate at Churchill as the favorite, he’ll be no shorter than 5:2, with a range of 5:2 – 9:2 as probable.

Why bet $110 at this point in time with the risk of injury? What if he draws post #20? Should Pyro turn in a poor performance in the Blue Grass, his odds will float up, rendering this a valueless pursuit. Imagine wagering $110 now on Pyro at 9:2 and getting 6:1 on Derby Day? There is absolutely no upside to this particular wager that involves using 55% of a $200 bankroll on chalk that must defeat 19 other rivals, stay healthy, and go off as the odds on favorite for this to pan out.

For this to be an even remotely logical wager, Joe must feel that this horse, eight weeks prior to the Derby, will be Even money or less. If he feels that strongly about the animal, why even spread the wagers at all? As much as I respect Joe, this is a poorly contructed methodology for playing the Derby Future Wager.

Prior to the BC, Amateurcapper and I had a respectful disagreement on his Top 10 list of Juvenile Turf contenders. I applaud him retroactively for taking on such a difficult division with the number of unknown factors leading up to that race. Anyway, the source of the disagreement revolved around Big Brown, a colt that had broken his maiden at the Spa (on the weeds), going long, by over 10 lengths at first asking. I was naturally impressed by this effort as I couldn't recall, in quite some time, such an impressive performance at the Spa at the Maiden Special Weight level for a first timer on the lawn. A-Capper pondered leaving him off the Top 10 list and we went back and forth a little and he ultimately included him at the 9^th spot if memory serves.

Why am I bringing this up?

1. Big Brown just came back from an extended layoff due to injury and just annihilated NX1 allowance foes at a mile on Wednesday at GP over the off track in 1:35 and 3/5 (originally carded for the turf) earning a Professor Beyer figure of 104 in his second career start (1^st as a three year old). While injuries kept this colt from gaining valuable running experience, he looks like a freakish talent that bears careful consideration. After all, it's not everyday that you find a colt that wins two races so easily, on two completely different surfaces with such authority while overcoming injury.

This colt out of Boundary and a Nureyev Dam should have no issues with the classic distances. Now in the care of Dutrow with Desormeux up in his latest effort, the connections are solid. While it's too early to get overly giddy given his late start, he certainly is worthy of closer examination. My 150:1 derby future wager has a shot if he runs well in the Florida Derby or Bluegrass, both of which he is rumored to be pointed.

2. Our brief back and forth banter reminded me of why I liked this site so much last year. Sure, we disagreed with one another, but it was never out of control. Recently, every time I log on, there is a new post with an insult about someone's mother or brother or this or that. Enough is enough. This isn't the Big Blog Page of mamajokedaily.com or myegoisbiggerthanyours.net. Let us not forget that this about the sport we love, not about one upping a fellow blogger with the best comeback or most childish witty retort.

If current form holds, please go ahead and tell me I don't know what I'm talking about and let me know how wrong I am about Big Brown. In fact, insult my heritage or my mother and then call Big Brown a pig and a sled.

Sadly, this type of banter is threatening to overtake the amount of quality opinions on actual issues and topical commentary we share on a regular basis.     

I’m a little tardy with a post on this subject, but it took my wee brain some time to digest the whole issue (and work tends to get in the way of more important things, like racing).

It’s time for reflection after a busy weekend of racing at Santa Anita on Big Cap day. Finally, horseplayers were treated to a day that once made Southern California racing great. From start to finish, the card provided interesting maiden races, deep downhill turf heats, and Grade I action. Unfortunately, the quality that once exemplified the circuit is a shell of its former self. While the brief reprieve from the monotony of a typical SoCal racing was refreshing, quietly, the marketing geniuses at the NTRA/Breeders’ Cup managed to once again damage the overall strength and appeal of the game.

Negativity shrouds this sport on a regular basis and I hate to pile it on. Unfortunately, in most cases, the oft-criticized NTRA deserves it. In case you haven’t heard (and everyone here has, no doubt), even more changes were set in motion for the two-day Breeders’ Cup event. New to the Cup in 2007 were three races, all of which were run on Friday (the Juvenile Turf, Dirt Mile, and Filly and Mare Sprint). The powers that be have introduced three additional races for 2008 as well, the Turf Sprint, Dirt Marathon, and Juvenile Fillies Turf.

The Turf Sprint will be run at a distance of 6.5 furlongs despite the fact that the increasingly popular distance of 5 furlongs represents a majority of the turf sprints run in America today. 6.5 furlongs is a bit of an odd distance; longer than a classic sprinting distance and shorter than a route. The Dirt Marathon is simply an excuse for added handle, which I can get behind despite the issues with carding such an uninteresting race. There are few races in this country at 1 ½ miles on the dirt; our breeding is geared toward speed, not stamina. As such, this Breeders’ Cup race is likely to resemble a typical Grade III event at best with a lack of available talent at that distance. Furthermore, it’s unknown at this time what surface will be utilized at Santa Anita with the recent debacle known as the Arcadia Cushion Track. At least the Juvenile Fillies Turf is a logical addition to the newly added Juvenile Turf and a victory for those fans of Title IX.

We can debate the merits of additional races, but at the end of the day, its handle that makes the game tick and the Cup should not be criticized for attempting to increase the amount of dollars wagered by carding additional races. However, the newly created schedule is troubling to say the least. “Female Championship Day” is the title of the Friday Breeders’ Cup card. I repeat, “Female Championship Day” is the title of the Friday Breeders’ Cup card.

Female Championship day includes all BC races carded for female horses and will be run on Friday, October 24th:

$2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies
$1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
$1 million Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint
$2 million Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf
$2 million Breeders’ Cup Ladies' Classic

Not only are all of the races for female horses relegated to one day, the Distaff has been renamed the Ladies’ Classic. Terms such as Derby, Distaff, and Futurity are longstanding identifiers for marquee races. What kind of reaction would ensue if the Kentucky Derby were to change its name to the Young Gentleman and Ladies’ Classic? Ladies’ Classic sounds like something better suited for the All England Tennis and Croquet Club of Wimbledon.

To make matters worse, the new schedule relegates one of the best races of the year, the championship event for female horses, the Distaff (I refuse to call it the Ladies’ Classic moving forward) to a day that most of the world is working. Yes, despite the recession, people still work……..

Here is what the Breeders’ Cup Website says about the new look Friday card (http://www.breederscup.com/content.aspx?id=31118):

The Ladies' Classic, the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and the new Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf will take place on Friday. In addition to the championship events at the track, the Breeders’ Cup plans to develop a series of Championship festivities designed to promote the new Friday format, including:

· Cause-related programs focused on women’s health
· On-site initiatives for fans and other guests of the event
· Consumer promotions in the Los Angeles marketplace and on a national basis
· Simulcast events in multiple markets throughout North America
· Special merchandise designed for Championship Friday
· First of its kind sponsor activation elements, broadcast and other media programs designed to support both the racing and charitable components

Do you honestly think for even a moment, that there is one member of the NTRA/Breeders’ Cup that understands how to grow market share for the sport/franchise that it represents? It’s not about social programs. It’s not about creating a day for women and female horses. It’s about driving new business and increasing existing business to its maximum potential. The above efforts will not drive additional handle, the lifeblood of the game. Changing the name of a huge race will fail to achieve marketing nirvana….They might as well run a BC ostrich race; resorting to an all female racing day is a less interesting gimmick.

In this era, the communication age, simulcast dollars are what butters the bread. Not on track promotions. Not women’s health day. Not special merchandise. Ontrack handle for all 11 races on Saturday at the 2007 Breeders’ Cup at Monmouth was $12.7 Million out of the total handle of $125.3 Million. Yep, just over 10% on the entire wagering pool came from on track.

Here’s a kooky idea: Run the Breeders’ Cup on Saturday and SUNDAY. I’m a serious handicapper that must take Friday off of work to watch and wager on the Cup. I also take Kentucky Oaks day off, but I’m in the slim minority, even for the most serious of fans. My money will go through the windows no matter the level of ineptitude of the Breeders’ Cup. It’s the occasional fan and wagering patron that is missed in this equation.

There is millions of dollars worth of potential handle lost by running BC races on Friday. People less serious about horse racing than I simply won’t take a day off of work for the Friday card, but would potentially churn handle over the weekend. Sure, it’s fairly easy to wager online and by phone and still get your bets in. However, I guarantee the average patron spends more $$$ by attending all day, or most of a day at the track, OTBs, or even an online wagering provider without having the workday interfere.

Despite the bureaucratic nightmare, the absolute answer to maximizing the relevance of the BC and driving huge amounts of handle is a link with the lottery system. Allow Pick-6 wagering though regular lottery outlets nationwide on the Classic. I’ve thrown this idea out there before under “Emphasizing the Mutuels” (http://horseplayerdaily.21publish.com/McCarron7000/previousEntries/xnlhco9bzkk6) as have others at varying times under varying circumstances; this is what lobbying bodies like the NTRA should spend time and money on. Sure, the local, state, and federal nightmare of pulling this off is a longshot, but worth the brain damage when the alternative is honestly believing Filly and Mare day will make one lick of difference to anyone.

Once again, industry executives have grossly missed the point and in the process done themselves a disservice by renaming a marquee event and relegating it to the minor leagues of Friday (think Nextel Cup versus Nationwide series or the PGA Tour versus the Nationwide Tour). Real Estate is all about location, location, location. Racing is all about handle, handle, handle. Make it easier for people to bet, not harder. Make pragmatic decisions that grow revenue over the long term, not surface level snap decisions that fail to create real change. I applaud the addition of extra races, even though the events are lackluster additions. However, the Female Championship Day amounts to what ostensibly is nothing more than a manufactured marketing gimmick.

{The Title is a Beastie Boys reference for those bloggers out there on the Big Blog Pages not born during the Generation X or Y era}

“The Ladies' Classic”? What a positively cute name for the Distaff. I believe a new Prada handbag is in order to attend that wonderfully dainty little tussle on the Cushion. Just between us girls, a lot of people have book club on Friday directly after work and will miss all of the Friday BC card for women.

Utilizing the most modern methods of internet searching to uncover additional information from the bowels of the BC website, I proudly found the following new names for 2009. Please keep these quiet as I acquired said information illegally:

Breeders’ Cup Sprint: “Really Quick Horsey Dash”

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile: “Male Pediatric Futurity”

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile: “Stupid”

Breeders’ Cup Marathon: “Mutuel Handle Kryptonite”

Crazy thought: Run the BC on Saturday and Sunday and put the all female card on Sunday. People tend to work on Friday, although if the economy keeps on its current pace, there may be a nice crowd after all.

I spent the whole week in Ontario (Toronto and Ottawa) for work. Due to weather issues and the general ineptitude of the aviation industry from Air Traffic Control in NYC to the fine customer service representatives of the airlines, I experienced not one, but two successive flight cancellations in as many days. Instead of getting home sweet home on Friday morning, I arrived back in Jersey last night at 7:00pm.

So what does a weary business traveler do with an extra day and a half in a foreign land (although Ontario could easily be the 51^st state)? Naturally, I grabbed a hotel near the Toronto Pearson Airport and headed straight for Woodbine. After all, when life gives you lemons, make lemonade, and then head to the track.

The facility is quite nice with plenty of free simulcast seating. I put up $5.00 CA (the bill with the kids playing hockey on the back) for seating in a small, quiet, comfortable room with private wagering machines. I always keep to myself in these situations and was quickly reminded that the general intellect of our pari-mutuel competition is no different north of the border.

The fellas sitting at the table next to me were discussing the Santa Anita Pick-6, which they were all planning on playing. One genius, a guy I’m assuming is not the economist laureate of Canada, proclaimed the Pick-6, “could easily be hit with a $12 ticket”. Another took a strong stance and stated in all seriousness, without sarcasm, that, “he likes to bet Baze at Bay Meadows”. This is akin to a politician claiming he or she is for, “working families”. Talk about going out on a limb…and good luck making money wagering on a jock that routinely pays $3.20 to win.

Experiencing a long flight delay also afforded me time to pick up and read Jerry Bailey’s fine book, Against All Odds: Riding for My Life. You have to admire a guy that is as frank and open as he is throughout this book. It takes a lot of proverbial nads to devote almost an entire book to personal problems that are tough to talk about. Like him or not, you must respect him for his brutal honesty about his life on and off the track.

Rare is the top athlete that is as candid as Mr. Bailey. He is not at all afraid to paint Corey Nakatani as a guy that would sacrifice the chances of his own mount to keep the heavy chalk from winning (and in doing so, fail to service his owner or trainer correctly). Usually, athletes have a “code” that keeps them from talking about various issues that occur in the field of play or in the locker room. This is quite refreshing stuff…….

I’ve always admired riders like JB that put their horses in a position to win each and every race. Occasionally, I’ll overhear handicappers claim that all jocks need to do is something along the lines of, “break cleanly and steer”, which is a load of absolute crap. Anyone that has wagered on a live longshot with a low percentage rider understands the value of jockey competence. McKinney and I both fired a bullet on one such case during the HPWS, a race that was so difficult to witness, I actually ran out of patience and could not watch the finish as the outcome was so painfully obvious (a much the best horse left with Place money due to A. Moron in the irons).

Bailey was the finest I’ve ever seen in my short association with this sport, and my handle is McCarron. I think you’ll find the book entertaining and enlightening.

One of the beauties of this game is that no two people will come to the exact same conclusion upon review of a previously run race, nor agree on daily happenings in the sport. I always enjoy healthy, well thought out debate in our world. Given the sheer lack of people that are fans of the game and the even smaller population that follows it regularly (and understands how to profitably handicap over the course of a day, month, year, or decade); it truly is a treat to be a part of these pages.

Given the recent back and forth between veterans and the youngins’, I would encourage everyone to read McKinney’s comment from February 13, responding to Amateurcapper’s February 12^th post entitled, “Opinions are one thing, becoming a ‘Rave-ing’ lunatic is another”. Not only is this one of the more insightful and introspective comments I’ve ever read on this site, but it also reinforces my experiences moving from a beginner to where I am today as a handicapper.

I started around age 13 following the game and learning how to handicap. By college, I thought I was pretty good. Like most people in that age range, the perception of my own abilities were not commiserate with reality. In my mid-20s, I began a quest to get better and learn all I could about successful handicapping. I read just about every book on the market and watched an exhausting number of races. I started keeping accurate records to understand what tracks/wagers were profitable and which were hurting me.

All of that grinding work was extremely helpful in my education; as such I became a much better player. The end result of that stretch was mixed--slight profitability for a few years and a slight dip in the red in others……but still not where I wanted to be. It all turned around when I stumbled upon the good fortune of hanging out the Canterbury Park Pressbox regularly for a few years. I’ve blogged about this many times in the past, but would like to put this in context of the veterans/newcomers discussion.

Over this two - three year period, during every trip to the track, I was surrounded by solid veteran handicappers and industry professionals that know the game inside and out. We discussed and debated wagering strategies, pace scenarios, and such before the race and after. I learned a number of handicapping angles not found in any book or magazine. You can read all of the books and articles out there twice over, but you cannot match the wisdom of experienced, well versed handicappers.

As a result of total immersion in an "educational" environment, I turned my results up a notch and have experienced two very profitable years. I owe a lot of that success to the Pressbox discussions. I certainly didn’t always agree with the sentiments of the crew, but always respected their opinions and learned a lot about myself as a handicapper, as well as the importance of listening to others. Even if you disagree with someone (assuming the person is knowledgeable), you can usually take away something tangible from the discourse that will help you in the long run.

I’m now 30 years old and feel my education has enabled me to “grow up” as a horseplayer. There is a lot to be learned from this site if you frequent it on a regular basis. My advice to anyone truly wanting to get better, to learn and to grow as a horseplayer is to, "read more and talk (or write) less". This comment isn't focused at anyone in particular; it's simply a reference to something that was helpful for me individually. 

When I first started posting, I often found myself overmatched and unable to defend my positions succinctly and in an articulate manner. Why? Because the knowledge of many of the other bloggers exceeded my own…..

Sure, we all get defensive about our positions and sometimes matters become more personal than we’d like. You may not like the method or tone of certain posts, but the end result is an education you cannot buy on the open market. While I may be the most cynical person (or second most) on this site, I can certainly appreciate the value of an educated, experienced viewpoint, even if it differs from my own. There is a shortage of people that know that they are talking about in this industry…..but not here.

Good luck and good racing.

P.S.-"Adult Education" is a fine tune from Hall and Oates........

This is an actual article from the online version of the Daily Racing Form (2/11/2008). Read it a few times, it actually gets worse with repetition:

http://www.drf.com/news/article/92207.html

Which star ran better?

NEW ORLEANS - Indian Blessing got from Point A to Point B much faster than did Pyro on Saturday at Fair Grounds, running 1 1/16 miles in the Silverbulletday Stakes almost one second faster than Pyro did winning the Risen Star. But while Indian Blessing visibly tired in her final furlong, Pyro came through the stretch like he had been shot from a cannon, covering his final quarter-mile in less than 23 seconds on the way to an improbable last-to-first win.

The question of which horse - filly or colt - ran a better race figures to occasion lively debate among racing fans this week, and fortunately, both horses emerged in good physical shape, their trainers said Monday.

While Pyro is a likely starter in the Louisiana Derby here on Marcho8, Indian Blessing was scheduled to return to trainer Bob Baffert's home base in California on Tuesday.

"I'm going to get her back here and monitor her here. She wasn't as tired as she was the one before," said Baffert, referring to Indian Blessing's narrow win last month at Santa Anita.

Baffert said Indian Blessing was likely to make her next start on dirt, adding that she was now firmly being pointed to the Kentucky Oaks. Indian Blessing, still undefeated after five starts, has looked ripe for passing in the stretch run of her two two-turn races, but she so far has held off all challengers, and did so Saturday through the longest stretch in North America.

"That's why I took her down there, to see if she could handle that," Baffert said. "A true two-turn horse will get it done."

Indian Blessing was timed in 1:43.75, and was given a Beyer Speed Figure of 99. Pyro was timed in 1:44.68, worth only a 90 Beyer, but there was no way Pyro could have run a fast final time. The Silverbulletday's first half-mile was run in 47.15 seconds, while the Risen Star went in a glacial 49.50. At that juncture, Pyro was last of 11, about seven lengths behind the leaders, and in 11th he stayed until launching a memorable run at the top of the stretch.

"Pyro's race was extremely impressive," trainer Steve Asmussen said. "It wasn't a fast final time, but I was concerned about it being too hard a race. He ran a quarter-mile, and how hard was that?"

Asmussen said both Pyro and Z Fortune, who lost for the first time while finishing second in the Risen Star, would breeze next Monday. Plans for Z Fortune aren't set, Asmussen said.

The trainer hopes to meet with owner Ahmed Zayat "and we'll map out a plan," Asmussen said. "I think we'll know a lot, how much it took out of him, after he breezes. Hopefully, he's still moving forward."

I said I'm not sure why this was published in than did Daily Racing Form with such poor command of that there english language I said. I could have written this in fourth grade and there is no way that could have known the difference in that there article was. I would have been embarassed to have that article in my newspaper, said me.

I realize some of these Form writers are paid in peanuts and goobers, but for God's sake, hire an online editor......Not only is this an embarrassingly poor example of expository writing, the content is deplorable. He essentially wrote about the hottest topic of the Triple Crown chase to date and managed to add nothing even remotely tangible or insightful.

There will be a healthy, but silly debate over the next few days about the strength of Pyro’s Risen Star performance. Here are the obvious questions:

(1)   If Pyro’s performance was so dominating, why was Indian Blessing so much faster?

(2)  Who did he beat?

(3)  Can we get this excited about a deep closer?

 
I’ve already read several variations of the above questions on this site and a few others and I’m beginning to wonder if I witnessed the same race. Here are a few elementary truths that are difficult to refute:

-When wagering on a closer and witnessing the tote pop up a pedestrian ¼, ½, and ¾, you can usually put the ticket in the write-off pile before the stretch run. In this case, Pyro was unaffected by the crawl and still gobbled up the field with a nasty turn of foot, without being asked for run. I couldn’t care less what the final time of the race is, what Beyer fig it gets assigned (for the record, Bob Black Jack received a 109 for running 6f in 106 and 2 at Daytona Motor Speedway). Did they put him to sleep yet, that poor horse?), or how much faster Indian Blessing’s final time was. For the record, the goal of a G3 for 3yr olds in February is not to shatter track records, it’s to stay healthy, learn something, and get better. Mission accomplished.
 

-“The who did he beat?” question is overrated. With rapidly improving 3 yr olds, we’ll only know how solid the field really was in retrospect. With that said, I think the Risen Star was actually a pretty strong GIII field, with Blackberry Road (G2, G3 placed), Z Humor (G1 and G3 shows), and two impressive 3 yo allowance winners in Signature Move and Visionaire in addition to the BC-Juvenile and Champaign runner-up.   

-Keep in mind this horse won on dirt. Not prestone inner-dirt. Not Metemucil. Not plastic. Not even the Santa Anita Bonneville Salt Flats of January 26th.

-Get excited about this particular deep closer since he is seemingly unaffected by slow fractions. Usually, the typical deep closer needs a favorable pace scenario, a clean trip, and a well timed ride. He didn’t really get much help in that department on Saturday and note the result.

While it’s way too early to anoint this horse the Derby winner, it’s not too early to take in how fantastic that performance really was. Watch it a few more times if you’re not convinced.

For the first time in a long, long while, I can honestly say I spent a day playing the horses that was unpleasant. In general, there are few circumstances that drive someone like me to spew such rhetoric, but alas, it’s true.

2007 marked the third year in a row in which I qualified for the HPWS through an event at Canterbury Park. Their qualifiers provide a HPWS seat at a player friendly clip of 18:1, so I make it a point to give it a shot. This preamble isn’t meant as a boast, but rather context for why I participate in the HPWS.

I respect the Coast Casino family immensely for actually giving a damn about the horseplayer. As we all know, industry professionals generally treat us slightly better than lepers and slightly worse than vagrants. My use of a medieval reference is purposeful; I wouldn’t begin to insinuate said industry representatives are worthy of 21^st century metaphor.

You can always count on the Orleans to provide ample seating, good food with several options, plenty of free booze, and a first-class contest atmosphere for the HPWS. Once again, in 2008, this was the case. However, I have several reasons for potentially passing on future efforts to qualify for this event.

In the months prior to the 2008 renewal, McKinney asked the board for a bit of background on our experiences in the HPWS. The one bit of insight I thought was important for him to know was the incredible grind he was about to embark on. Three days of 100% optional plays, with 8 contest tracks at your disposal (7 on Thrs.), to make a total of 33 selections is pretty daunting against roughly 675 other players. Factor that in with the time change, travel schedule, gambling schedule, drinking schedule, high price call-girl schedule, and you’re looking at a busy weekend. I’m kidding about some if not all of that list (as far as my wife is concerned).

I like full fields, grass racing, and cards without the word “claimer” listed (as infrequently as possible). Thursday and Friday racing is pretty weak in comparison to most weekends and this year, it was just awful. With cancellations at Santa Anita and Oaklawn, and the others off the lawn, there were slim pickins’. On Saturday they replaced Santa Anita with a track called, “the Bonneville Salt Flats”.

In one particularly deflating moment on Saturday morning, I consulted the sheet of horses to watch that I drafted the night before that featured about 15 possible longshot plays and noticed a horse on the list that opened at 35:1. The comment on my scratch sheet was, “consider at 30:1 or greater”. At this particular moment, I was also following two other animals from the sheet at other tracks. Y’all know where this is headed. Said horse wins at over 50:1 (first time starter as a 5 year old with three published works and no name connections—hardly awe inspiring, but the field was just atrocious and the breeding was decent) and I’m left still “following” the odds of the other two horses. I completely forgot about the bomb and was left with a coulda, woulda, shoulda moment. Now, most people in this contest go through some version of the same story (maybe not with a cap horse), and I hate to rehash it, but it’s an example of how the concentration level tends to wane as the HPWS progresses. I have no one to blame but myself, but I’m not sure I would have made a similar error on Friday. In addition to that mental lapse, my handicapping was so abysmal on Saturday that I deserved the fate that left me off the board.

While the format allows a picky guy like me to find races I’m most comfortable with and the set of circumstances is the same for all handicappers in the contest (no unfair advantages or disadvantages), there is really no need for Thursday. A two day event is more pragmatic and in turn, probably more enjoyable. Perhaps they need the live handle from Thursday to make enough to rationalize the associated costs of hosting the event.

Looking back, I can honestly say Saturday was not an enjoyable day of handicapping. This year, I will make an effort to qualify for the NHC and take a break from the HPWS in 2009. Given the set of circumstances that surround the HPWS, I can’t see ponying up $1,000 to participate in lieu of the qualifying route should I get ancy in early January and change my mind. I’d rather spend tournament time and money attempting to qualify for the NHC, which I find infinitely more enjoyable.

The following is an excerpt from calracing.com that highlights the activities surrounding the record Pick-6 pool at Hollywood over the summer:

 http://www.calracing.com/press_releases.php?f=RECORDDAILYHANDLEOF113MIL.html

The biggest non-holiday weekday handle in track history came Monday, July 2, when a record four-day Pick Six carryover of $3,274,505.48 generated a single-day record Pick Six handle of $7,596,347.12 and a record Pick Six pool of $10,870,852.60.

Total handle was $18,407,581. Thirteen perfect tickets were worth $576,064.40 each, while 807 consolation tickets with five winners each were worth $2,240.40. A single winning ticket would have paid a record $7.4 million.

Eight of the tickets were purchased in California with investments ranging from $2 to $14,400. A father/daughter team had two perfect tickets at Los Alamitos — one on a $2 ticket and one on a $4 ticket. There was a $24 winning ticket at Victorville and a $432 winning ticket at Santa Anita. At Hollywood Park, one player cashed twice, once with a $768 ticket and once on a $960 wager.

At the time this story surfaced, many on this forum questioned if the $2 and $4 winning tickets were a result of impropriety instead of dumb luck, no check that, unfathomable moronic luck. My feelings on the lottery and the types of people that engage in lottery style gambling ventures are well documented. There is positively no reason for another Dennis Millerian style rant here. However, I believe those questioning the legitimacy of a winning straight Pick-6 ticket give the general public way too much credit. People love playing the same numbers, birthdates, anniversaries, lucky numbers, and all sorts of other novelties of chance on a daily basis with the hope and prayer of a huge payout.

I only rehash this because of this story from the Sunday, December 30^th version of the Form:

One New York City Off-Track Betting patron didn’t need a dollar to realize his dream. All he needed was a dime. The unidentified bettor collected the entire net pool of $23,609 when he hit the Superfecta in Friday’s third race. The winning combination of 2-6-10-4 consisted of Karakorum Roulette ($74.50) over 12-1 shot Ambidaxtrous, 43-1 shot Sounds Tacky, and 5-1 shot Phil Cat.

That is one heck of shrewd straight Dime Super play. Some may say this smells bad. I say it smells like one of the millions of uninformed degenerates in this country that got lucky. The counter argument to my sentiment is the pure statistical anomaly that allows these individuals to cash a straight ticket with so many mathematical possibilities. However, what we all need to realize is the sheer volume of people out there playing these types of wagers on a daily basis renders the statistical viability of hitting such a wager that much more realistic.