McCarron

It pains me to say this, but I’m afraid our own Judge Joey Dak is proliferating horrible advice to the public in his NTRA Derby Futures Blog. The aim of all professional handicapping writers is to provide sound advice since many horseplayers display horrible habits on a regular basis. The worst habitual handicapping no-no that I see is the constant firing away at chalk/overplaying of favorites. There isn’t a profitable player alive that can put the ROI in the black playing chalk on a regular or even semi-regular basis. Joey Dak is helping promote the proliferation of a poor habit by not only playing Pyro once in the Derby Futures pool at 5:1, but by firing away again on the horse in the subsequent pool at odds that awarded him a price of 9:2.

Here are Joe’s selections:

Pool 1

$50 on Pyro at 5-1

$25 on Colonel John at 19-1

$15 on Crown of Thorns at 18-1 (off the trail)

$10 on Denis of Cork at 46-1

Pool 2

$60 on Pyro (hoping for 7-2, doubt I'll get it).

$20 on Colonel John (would like 22-1)

$20 on Denis of Cork (please give me 15-1).

Pyro grabs $110 worth of wagers from Joey Dak at 5:1 and 9:2 respectively. Now, I ask you, why take Pyro at a blended rate (a touch lower with a weighted average based on his unequal wager size) of roughly 4.75:1 several weeks prior to the Derby when he could very well go off at a similar range on May 5^th? Even if he enters the starting gate at Churchill as the favorite, he’ll be no shorter than 5:2, with a range of 5:2 – 9:2 as probable.

Why bet $110 at this point in time with the risk of injury? What if he draws post #20? Should Pyro turn in a poor performance in the Blue Grass, his odds will float up, rendering this a valueless pursuit. Imagine wagering $110 now on Pyro at 9:2 and getting 6:1 on Derby Day? There is absolutely no upside to this particular wager that involves using 55% of a $200 bankroll on chalk that must defeat 19 other rivals, stay healthy, and go off as the odds on favorite for this to pan out.

For this to be an even remotely logical wager, Joe must feel that this horse, eight weeks prior to the Derby, will be Even money or less. If he feels that strongly about the animal, why even spread the wagers at all? As much as I respect Joe, this is a poorly contructed methodology for playing the Derby Future Wager.

Prior to the BC, Amateurcapper and I had a respectful disagreement on his Top 10 list of Juvenile Turf contenders. I applaud him retroactively for taking on such a difficult division with the number of unknown factors leading up to that race. Anyway, the source of the disagreement revolved around Big Brown, a colt that had broken his maiden at the Spa (on the weeds), going long, by over 10 lengths at first asking. I was naturally impressed by this effort as I couldn't recall, in quite some time, such an impressive performance at the Spa at the Maiden Special Weight level for a first timer on the lawn. A-Capper pondered leaving him off the Top 10 list and we went back and forth a little and he ultimately included him at the 9^th spot if memory serves.

Why am I bringing this up?

1. Big Brown just came back from an extended layoff due to injury and just annihilated NX1 allowance foes at a mile on Wednesday at GP over the off track in 1:35 and 3/5 (originally carded for the turf) earning a Professor Beyer figure of 104 in his second career start (1^st as a three year old). While injuries kept this colt from gaining valuable running experience, he looks like a freakish talent that bears careful consideration. After all, it's not everyday that you find a colt that wins two races so easily, on two completely different surfaces with such authority while overcoming injury.

This colt out of Boundary and a Nureyev Dam should have no issues with the classic distances. Now in the care of Dutrow with Desormeux up in his latest effort, the connections are solid. While it's too early to get overly giddy given his late start, he certainly is worthy of closer examination. My 150:1 derby future wager has a shot if he runs well in the Florida Derby or Bluegrass, both of which he is rumored to be pointed.

2. Our brief back and forth banter reminded me of why I liked this site so much last year. Sure, we disagreed with one another, but it was never out of control. Recently, every time I log on, there is a new post with an insult about someone's mother or brother or this or that. Enough is enough. This isn't the Big Blog Page of mamajokedaily.com or myegoisbiggerthanyours.net. Let us not forget that this about the sport we love, not about one upping a fellow blogger with the best comeback or most childish witty retort.

If current form holds, please go ahead and tell me I don't know what I'm talking about and let me know how wrong I am about Big Brown. In fact, insult my heritage or my mother and then call Big Brown a pig and a sled.

Sadly, this type of banter is threatening to overtake the amount of quality opinions on actual issues and topical commentary we share on a regular basis.     

I’m a little tardy with a post on this subject, but it took my wee brain some time to digest the whole issue (and work tends to get in the way of more important things, like racing).

It’s time for reflection after a busy weekend of racing at Santa Anita on Big Cap day. Finally, horseplayers were treated to a day that once made Southern California racing great. From start to finish, the card provided interesting maiden races, deep downhill turf heats, and Grade I action. Unfortunately, the quality that once exemplified the circuit is a shell of its former self. While the brief reprieve from the monotony of a typical SoCal racing was refreshing, quietly, the marketing geniuses at the NTRA/Breeders’ Cup managed to once again damage the overall strength and appeal of the game.

Negativity shrouds this sport on a regular basis and I hate to pile it on. Unfortunately, in most cases, the oft-criticized NTRA deserves it. In case you haven’t heard (and everyone here has, no doubt), even more changes were set in motion for the two-day Breeders’ Cup event. New to the Cup in 2007 were three races, all of which were run on Friday (the Juvenile Turf, Dirt Mile, and Filly and Mare Sprint). The powers that be have introduced three additional races for 2008 as well, the Turf Sprint, Dirt Marathon, and Juvenile Fillies Turf.

The Turf Sprint will be run at a distance of 6.5 furlongs despite the fact that the increasingly popular distance of 5 furlongs represents a majority of the turf sprints run in America today. 6.5 furlongs is a bit of an odd distance; longer than a classic sprinting distance and shorter than a route. The Dirt Marathon is simply an excuse for added handle, which I can get behind despite the issues with carding such an uninteresting race. There are few races in this country at 1 ½ miles on the dirt; our breeding is geared toward speed, not stamina. As such, this Breeders’ Cup race is likely to resemble a typical Grade III event at best with a lack of available talent at that distance. Furthermore, it’s unknown at this time what surface will be utilized at Santa Anita with the recent debacle known as the Arcadia Cushion Track. At least the Juvenile Fillies Turf is a logical addition to the newly added Juvenile Turf and a victory for those fans of Title IX.

We can debate the merits of additional races, but at the end of the day, its handle that makes the game tick and the Cup should not be criticized for attempting to increase the amount of dollars wagered by carding additional races. However, the newly created schedule is troubling to say the least. “Female Championship Day” is the title of the Friday Breeders’ Cup card. I repeat, “Female Championship Day” is the title of the Friday Breeders’ Cup card.

Female Championship day includes all BC races carded for female horses and will be run on Friday, October 24th:

$2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies
$1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
$1 million Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint
$2 million Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf
$2 million Breeders’ Cup Ladies' Classic

Not only are all of the races for female horses relegated to one day, the Distaff has been renamed the Ladies’ Classic. Terms such as Derby, Distaff, and Futurity are longstanding identifiers for marquee races. What kind of reaction would ensue if the Kentucky Derby were to change its name to the Young Gentleman and Ladies’ Classic? Ladies’ Classic sounds like something better suited for the All England Tennis and Croquet Club of Wimbledon.

To make matters worse, the new schedule relegates one of the best races of the year, the championship event for female horses, the Distaff (I refuse to call it the Ladies’ Classic moving forward) to a day that most of the world is working. Yes, despite the recession, people still work……..

Here is what the Breeders’ Cup Website says about the new look Friday card (http://www.breederscup.com/content.aspx?id=31118):

The Ladies' Classic, the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and the new Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf will take place on Friday. In addition to the championship events at the track, the Breeders’ Cup plans to develop a series of Championship festivities designed to promote the new Friday format, including:

· Cause-related programs focused on women’s health
· On-site initiatives for fans and other guests of the event
· Consumer promotions in the Los Angeles marketplace and on a national basis
· Simulcast events in multiple markets throughout North America
· Special merchandise designed for Championship Friday
· First of its kind sponsor activation elements, broadcast and other media programs designed to support both the racing and charitable components

Do you honestly think for even a moment, that there is one member of the NTRA/Breeders’ Cup that understands how to grow market share for the sport/franchise that it represents? It’s not about social programs. It’s not about creating a day for women and female horses. It’s about driving new business and increasing existing business to its maximum potential. The above efforts will not drive additional handle, the lifeblood of the game. Changing the name of a huge race will fail to achieve marketing nirvana….They might as well run a BC ostrich race; resorting to an all female racing day is a less interesting gimmick.

In this era, the communication age, simulcast dollars are what butters the bread. Not on track promotions. Not women’s health day. Not special merchandise. Ontrack handle for all 11 races on Saturday at the 2007 Breeders’ Cup at Monmouth was $12.7 Million out of the total handle of $125.3 Million. Yep, just over 10% on the entire wagering pool came from on track.

Here’s a kooky idea: Run the Breeders’ Cup on Saturday and SUNDAY. I’m a serious handicapper that must take Friday off of work to watch and wager on the Cup. I also take Kentucky Oaks day off, but I’m in the slim minority, even for the most serious of fans. My money will go through the windows no matter the level of ineptitude of the Breeders’ Cup. It’s the occasional fan and wagering patron that is missed in this equation.

There is millions of dollars worth of potential handle lost by running BC races on Friday. People less serious about horse racing than I simply won’t take a day off of work for the Friday card, but would potentially churn handle over the weekend. Sure, it’s fairly easy to wager online and by phone and still get your bets in. However, I guarantee the average patron spends more $$$ by attending all day, or most of a day at the track, OTBs, or even an online wagering provider without having the workday interfere.

Despite the bureaucratic nightmare, the absolute answer to maximizing the relevance of the BC and driving huge amounts of handle is a link with the lottery system. Allow Pick-6 wagering though regular lottery outlets nationwide on the Classic. I’ve thrown this idea out there before under “Emphasizing the Mutuels” (http://horseplayerdaily.21publish.com/McCarron7000/previousEntries/xnlhco9bzkk6) as have others at varying times under varying circumstances; this is what lobbying bodies like the NTRA should spend time and money on. Sure, the local, state, and federal nightmare of pulling this off is a longshot, but worth the brain damage when the alternative is honestly believing Filly and Mare day will make one lick of difference to anyone.

Once again, industry executives have grossly missed the point and in the process done themselves a disservice by renaming a marquee event and relegating it to the minor leagues of Friday (think Nextel Cup versus Nationwide series or the PGA Tour versus the Nationwide Tour). Real Estate is all about location, location, location. Racing is all about handle, handle, handle. Make it easier for people to bet, not harder. Make pragmatic decisions that grow revenue over the long term, not surface level snap decisions that fail to create real change. I applaud the addition of extra races, even though the events are lackluster additions. However, the Female Championship Day amounts to what ostensibly is nothing more than a manufactured marketing gimmick.

{The Title is a Beastie Boys reference for those bloggers out there on the Big Blog Pages not born during the Generation X or Y era}

“The Ladies' Classic”? What a positively cute name for the Distaff. I believe a new Prada handbag is in order to attend that wonderfully dainty little tussle on the Cushion. Just between us girls, a lot of people have book club on Friday directly after work and will miss all of the Friday BC card for women.

Utilizing the most modern methods of internet searching to uncover additional information from the bowels of the BC website, I proudly found the following new names for 2009. Please keep these quiet as I acquired said information illegally:

Breeders’ Cup Sprint: “Really Quick Horsey Dash”

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile: “Male Pediatric Futurity”

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile: “Stupid”

Breeders’ Cup Marathon: “Mutuel Handle Kryptonite”

Crazy thought: Run the BC on Saturday and Sunday and put the all female card on Sunday. People tend to work on Friday, although if the economy keeps on its current pace, there may be a nice crowd after all.

I spent the whole week in Ontario (Toronto and Ottawa) for work. Due to weather issues and the general ineptitude of the aviation industry from Air Traffic Control in NYC to the fine customer service representatives of the airlines, I experienced not one, but two successive flight cancellations in as many days. Instead of getting home sweet home on Friday morning, I arrived back in Jersey last night at 7:00pm.

So what does a weary business traveler do with an extra day and a half in a foreign land (although Ontario could easily be the 51^st state)? Naturally, I grabbed a hotel near the Toronto Pearson Airport and headed straight for Woodbine. After all, when life gives you lemons, make lemonade, and then head to the track.

The facility is quite nice with plenty of free simulcast seating. I put up $5.00 CA (the bill with the kids playing hockey on the back) for seating in a small, quiet, comfortable room with private wagering machines. I always keep to myself in these situations and was quickly reminded that the general intellect of our pari-mutuel competition is no different north of the border.

The fellas sitting at the table next to me were discussing the Santa Anita Pick-6, which they were all planning on playing. One genius, a guy I’m assuming is not the economist laureate of Canada, proclaimed the Pick-6, “could easily be hit with a $12 ticket”. Another took a strong stance and stated in all seriousness, without sarcasm, that, “he likes to bet Baze at Bay Meadows”. This is akin to a politician claiming he or she is for, “working families”. Talk about going out on a limb…and good luck making money wagering on a jock that routinely pays $3.20 to win.

Experiencing a long flight delay also afforded me time to pick up and read Jerry Bailey’s fine book, Against All Odds: Riding for My Life. You have to admire a guy that is as frank and open as he is throughout this book. It takes a lot of proverbial nads to devote almost an entire book to personal problems that are tough to talk about. Like him or not, you must respect him for his brutal honesty about his life on and off the track.

Rare is the top athlete that is as candid as Mr. Bailey. He is not at all afraid to paint Corey Nakatani as a guy that would sacrifice the chances of his own mount to keep the heavy chalk from winning (and in doing so, fail to service his owner or trainer correctly). Usually, athletes have a “code” that keeps them from talking about various issues that occur in the field of play or in the locker room. This is quite refreshing stuff…….

I’ve always admired riders like JB that put their horses in a position to win each and every race. Occasionally, I’ll overhear handicappers claim that all jocks need to do is something along the lines of, “break cleanly and steer”, which is a load of absolute crap. Anyone that has wagered on a live longshot with a low percentage rider understands the value of jockey competence. McKinney and I both fired a bullet on one such case during the HPWS, a race that was so difficult to witness, I actually ran out of patience and could not watch the finish as the outcome was so painfully obvious (a much the best horse left with Place money due to A. Moron in the irons).

Bailey was the finest I’ve ever seen in my short association with this sport, and my handle is McCarron. I think you’ll find the book entertaining and enlightening.