McCarron

Judge Whitey brought up a good discussion point by asking what factors influence a handicapper’s decision on what tracks to play. I believe these dynamics depend upon the level of player, preferred wagering type, longstanding intrinsic habits, quality of racing, and handicapping strengths. I’ll use my own history and tendencies to illustrate what I believe drive these decisions.

I prefer Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers, as my handicapping philosophy takes advantage of the unique opportunity horse racing affords; to wager a relatively small amount to win a relatively large amount. No other type of gaming allows for such generous payouts on such small base wagers. It always amazes me to watch my friends play the lottery, a “tax on the poor” with a usurious takeout and astronomical probability of success.

I know through fairly meticulous record keeping that my ROI with Pick 3 and 4 wagers is my most profitable vehicle. I also know which races are my strengths as a handicapper in order-Maiden Specials (Turf), Allowance Routes (Turf), Allowance Sprints (Turf), Maiden Claimers at any distance (Dirt), Stakes Routes (Turf), Stakes Routes (Dirt). In general, I prefer a higher quality of racing with full fields. These are the characteristics I’m seeking in order of importance:

Vulnerable morning line chalk

Pick 4 sequences with my preferred races

Full fields

High quality of racing

Notice takeout is absent from the list. The 4% takeout at Ellis is revolutionary and appealing on so many levels. I played it two/three days a week for about six weeks without much success as I am weak with low level claiming races. Despite the advantageous proposition and the fundamental gesture it represents, I had to cease playing it. I also failed to wager a single dollar at Laurel due to the short fields and poor quality of racing. As much as the 11% takeout is a fantastic revelation, the takeout is irrelevant if you can’t find a way to be profitable.

I prefer to play Saratoga, Belmont, Santa Anita, Keeneland, Colonial (Turf), and Calder above most others for the purposes of quality and/or historic successes. A lower takeout will draw me to other tracks in the short term if I find a successful methodology. I started playing the Pick 3’s at Sam Houston for the 12% takeout and found that to be a rewarding diversion and a different handicapping experience than I’m generally accustomed to. Unlike Ellis, I was able to figure out a decent strategy and will play the track moving forward.

The takeout is one of many factors that are a part of where people wager. The regulars on this site are a different kind of animal than the general handicapping patron. Most of us have a proven rationale or well thought out vision for the types of wagers and tracks we select.

What I’ve noticed over the years is that many less informed bettors continually make the same mistakes over and over, at the same tracks, making the same wagers. They fail to adapt, keep records, change with the times, or strive to enjoy a hobby and also make a profit. Therefore, I feel a decrease in takeout has little impact on those individuals.

I also have seen too many people, some of which are actually decent handicappers, firing away at race after race without previous preparation or logical thought. This never works and is purely for those types that seek endless action, the adrenaline rush of putting money on the line early and often in the pursuit of a quick score.

In sum, I believe the answer to Whitey’s question of, “Why do people play what they play” (which was probably more of a rhetorical question) boils down to the very nature of how human beings think and act as individuals. There is no concrete answer, but I believe good handicappers take a more rationale approach, even if the logic may lead to passing on a low takeout.

Before some preliminary Mile analysis, check this out-

Patrick Biancone's vet, who is named Rod Stewart (really), will appeal the suspension by the Kentucky Racing Commission. How will sexy Rod respond to the appeal? Perhaps with an updated collection of greatest hits featuring:

"Vials of Cobra Venom, you wear it well"

"Some guys have all the luck. Some guys horses feel no pain. Some guys get all the breaks. Some French guys cheat and then complain"

"Who else is gonna bring you, a broken vial"

"Are the stars out tonight? I don't know if it's cloudy or bright. Cause I only have eyes for you dear, and I can't feel my frickin' hoof"

Enough of that already....

Remarkable News (15:1 Wynn Future Line/15% supplement) sports 7 wins on 6 different tracks since last March. The versatile front runner is capable of exploits beyond a mile, but all signs point to a potential BC Mile start. Scratched out of the Fourstardave Handicap at Saratoga with Colic, he's now aiming for the Woodbine Mile. As a four year old, he ran in the Woodbine Mile without success, but is a better horse this year at five. A threat.

Ramonti (15:1 Wynn Future Line) The Godolphin charge ridden by Frankie Dettori took the 1 Mile Queen Anne Stakes at Ascot by a nose in a blanket finish. Ramonti gave up the lead to Jeremy and looked destined for minor placings. Jeremy drifted badly to the far rail with a 1/16 to go and allowed Ramonti to get back in the race. Need to see more.

George Washington (12:1 Wynn Future Line) George Washington never looked comfortable in the Queen Anne Stakes, but rallied belatedly for a closely beaten fourth place effort in his first race back since the 2006 Breeders' Cup Classic. George Washington is eligible to improve by leaps and bounds and is one to keep an eye on. He very well could have won the BC Mile last year instead of attempting the Classic and this year will hopefully provide a shot at redemption should he make the trip. Respect.

Marcavelly (20:1 Wynn Future Line) was the hard luck runner up in the race with too long of a name, the Grade II National of Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes at Saratoga. After staging a nice rally in mid-stretch, he ran out of racing room along the rail, took back, and re-rallied to barely lose to Nobiz Like Shobiz at the wire. He was much the best in that race. His previous effort over the Monmouth lawn as a two year old resulted in an easy win, which is quite encouraging. This three year old is loaded with talent, but at this point, he appears a notch below the top contenders. Not tossing yet.

Shakis (35:1 Wynn Future Line) flopped as the favorite in the Bowling Green after a close third in the Manhattan behind Better Talk Now and English Channel with a rough trip down the stretch. He bounced back while returning to a more suitable 1 1/8 distance to break the 34 year old track record at Saratoga over an extremely firm (Have you seen the dirt flying up around the first turn?) turf course. It's unclear if he'll point to the Mile, but expect that 35:1 line to drop quite a bit off that effort. Respect.

$1 Proposed All Stakes Pick 4 Ticket = $60

R7: 1,4,6

R8: 2,8,9,11

R9: 4

R10: 3,4,6,8,10

Race 7 (Bernard Baruch):

#1 Shakis (4/1ML) flopped as the favorite in the Bowling Green after a close third in the Manhattan behind Better Talk Now and English Channel with a rough trip down the stretch. No excuse in his last-expecting a better result today.

#4 Linda’s Lad (8/1ML) is a European Group 1 winner that comes stateside off a light one race 2007 campaign. I’m a strong believer in the relative strength of the Europeans against the home team on this surface and will include this Sadler’s Wells colt in the P4.

#6 Cosmonaut (3/1ML) is classy and consistent, but doesn’t win at the clip one would expect from this runner (6 for 24 lifetime). He dominated a softer Grade III group in the Arlington Handicap after back to back ¾ length defeats in the classy Manhattan and Dixie respectively. He had a terrible trip in the Dixie and was slightly outclassed in the Manhattan. He gets a group he can handle here and is a must use in the P4.

Race 8 (King’s Bishop): Two familiar names from the Triple Crown trail square off in the contentious 7F Grade I. However, I’m looking for some lesser known names on the national scene, improving sprinters, to take this. With the impending single of Street Sense, the inclusion of Hard Spun and Teuflesberg is a poor strategy, especially with their vulnerability today.

# 8 Most Distinguished (5/1ML) took eight races to break his maiden. Some horses take a bit longer than others to mature and he looks to be on the right track since the May 11^th Optional Claiming triumph at Belmont. Zito runners have a tendency to peak at the Spa meet and his running style fits this race. I love the August 17^th drill and he clearly relishes the Saratoga strip.

#9 First Defence (6/1ML) is a Juddmonte homebred out of a brilliant mare, the 2000 Breeders’ Cup sprint runner up, Honest Lady. Injuries have kept his trips to the starting gate to a minimum. His front running 7F victory at Belmont was aided by slow fractions, but the win was visually impressive. He should press the faster early speed types and have a chance to take this. Looking for a peak effort today.

#11 King of the Roxy (10/1ML) is better suited for sprint distances and needed the last off the layoff since the Preakness. Expect much better today despite the difficult post. Could add some value to the P4.

#2 Spin Master (12/1ML) goes postward for Romans and Gomez and is also a nice price play in the horizontal wagers. He regressed off the huge effort in the Matt Winn, but has a decent prep under his belt. I’m not sure his best is good enough in this spot, but with the impending single of Street Sense, which essentially makes this wager a Pick 3, he merits inclusion.

#7 Teuflesberg (7/2 ML) is a hard knocking, talented horse that excels despite the handling of 4 for 189 trainer, Jamie Sanders. Without this horse, she is a mind boggling 2 for 181 this year with some pretty good stock. T-Berg has now run at six different distances this year (at seven different tracks and three surfaces [Dirt, Poly, and Turf]). After this race, Sanders will point him to a 3F sprint over a sandy beach surface in Bermuda if he comes out of it in good order and will then look to the 2 Mile Nordic Derby on a Norwegian fjord should global warming fail to melt the ice by December.

This horse is best suited for races at 6f – 8f, which is where he should remain, on the dirt, for the rest of his 96 race career. He is capable of going gate to wire or laying off the pace, which is a great quality to have as a sprinter. As much as I respect the efforts of this horse, at 7/2ML, I’m tossing him from the P4.

#3 Hard Spun (3/1ML) is a classy triple crown veteran that has fared well against the best horses of his generation. He cuts back to a sprint for the first time since December and gets a pretty talented group of colts. There are no glaring knocks on this horse, but there are enough bonafide improving sprinters here to merit his exclusion from the P4 as the likely post time favorite.

Race 9 (Travers): This race requires very little handicapping. Avoid getting cute/wasting money and single Street Sense. In effect, this makes the Pick 4 a Pick 3, but the tendency in situations such as this is to overhandicap and include horses with no chance.

Race 10 (The Victory Ride):

#8 La Traviata (5/2ML) Named for the famous Verdi opera, the third most performed in North American history. The grand total of operas I have seen or care about is roughly equivalent to zero so let’s get back to what really matters, thoroughbred horse racing. This Johannesburg filly fetched $1.1 Million at the Fasig-Tipton sale in February of 2006. She has freaked in each of her first two starts winning by 13.25 and 5 lengths respectively. She steps up in class today to tackle graded stakes competition in her third career start. Although she is by no means a single or lock to take this, any repeat of her previous efforts is good enough. Respect.

#4 Graeme Six (9/2ML) She ran a sneaky good race in her first Graded effort in the Grade I Test against the monster Dream Rush. There is no such superstar in this group and she is poised to improve off that initial foray to the Graded Stakes ranks. Amoss is an underrated trainer on the national scene. With a pace that should be plenty honest up front, she’s poised for a good trip that suits her style.

#6 Allude (6/1ML) The Orientate filly turned around her suspect form three back at Belmont and looks live in this spot. After a rough start in her last, she rebounded and barely missed in a restricted stakes race over this strip. Although class is a major hurdle, her tactical speed should put her in position for a pressing trip.

#10 Featherbed (5/1ML) Shown steady improvement over a six race career with the exception of an excusable average effort in the slop off a long layoff. The Pletcher trainee is a huge threat with any continued improvement and has shown the track is to her liking.

#3 Russian Gypsy (10/1ML) Although there is plenty of speed in this heat, The Wally Dollase trained Russian Gypsy is a likely front runner with some longshot appeal. The lightly raced filly is second off the shelf and draws a great post for exploiting her early lick. I tend to include many Dollase charges and will do so here at a double digit ML.

A brief piece by Steve Anderson of DRF (Wednesday the 22^nd) quotes John Sadler as reluctant to send Crossing the Line to the BC Mile due to the $300,000 supplemental fee:

http://www.drf.com/news/article/87833.html

"Right now, I'd say we wouldn't put up the money,"

While I’m not sold on his chances, I’d hate to see this horse pass on the race. Perhaps it’s time to alter the requirements for nominating horses to the Cup races. It’s a shame that economics would keep the top horses from running on the marquee day for racing. How sad is it that well heeled horse owners are forced to pass on the Cup because of money? These are some of the wealthiest people in the country and they cannot, and in most cases should not, pony up this kind of money for a single horse race.

The Breeders’ Cup website lays out some rules for early foal and standard foal nominations which stand at a reasonable $500 fee. The late foal nomination triples to $1,500, but still is within a reasonable proportion to the purse money offered for Breeders’ Cup races. Nominating horses of racing age jumps to a $150,000 fee for a horse from a nominated stallion and a $250,000 fee for a horse from a non-nominated stallion. The website also provides these tidbits:

Horses sired by nominated stallions (in the year of conception) but not nominated at any time during their racing careers may be supplemented to the Breeders' Cup World Championships at a cost of 9% of the purse. They cannot be supplemented to the Breeders' Cup Stakes program.

If a horse is sired by a stallion not nominated to any program and is not nominated at any time during its racing career, that horse may be supplemented to the Breeders' Cup World Championships at a cost of 15% of the purse.

Crossing the Line fits into the 15% category, which is a shame. I’m by no means an expert on this confusing nomination process, and perhaps I’m missing something, but it appears to punish the foreign horses unfairly. The Breeders’ Cup after all is named the “World Championships”. In the Mile division alone, the following horses with ten or more points in the division require supplemental fees:

Able Won (NZ)-Crossing the Line (NZ)-Remarkable News (VEN)-Wordly(GB)-Stormy River (FR)-Einstein (BRZ)

Not only does this system punish top foreign horses, but the South American breds all require a 15% fee versus the 9% fee of the Europeans. The modestly bred horse from Oklahoma, Kip Deville, also would owe a 15% fee to enter the starting gate.

Again, I may be missing something here as the nomination requirements are a bit confusing, but the system appears to discriminate against South American, European, and modestly bred horses to an unfair extent. It amounts to a bit of horse “racism” or at the very least, some snobby attitudes.

Hmmm....Do you think Angel Cabrera and Lee Westwood had to pay more to enter the U.S. Open than Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson?

I'm shocked that there have not been more doomsday posts regarding the Polytrack at Del Mar after the Grade IV Pacific Classic. I truly believe the result is more symptomatic of how poor the quality of racing is at Del Mar rather than the surface. Student Council is equally mediocre on all surfaces, including Poly, so this is not a Poly aided longshot winning from nowhere. This is a mediocre horse winning a race that should be downgraded. The surface may have a lot to do with Lava Man not firing his best, but isn't the entire cause of the bizarre result. This was a horrid field:

-Sun Boat: Ran in a $40,000 claimer four races back and went off at 5:1 and finished dead last

-Big Booster: Ran in a $40,000 claimer four races back and finished 5^th at 8:1

-Although speed figures are by no means the be all end all for analyzing a horse race, only 3 horses of the 12 entrants ran a triple digit Beyer in its previous race. I remind you, this is a $1,000,000 race for 3 year olds and up. This is the Pacific Classic at Del Mar, not the Pacific Classic at Portland Meadows

-Salty Humor: 3 for 22 lifetime

-The late Pick 4 was a huge underlay at $2,504

Student Council won this race because he ran back to his typical high 90's beyers in this renewal of the Fonner Classic (99), only this time he actually defeated the field rather than just hitting the board. Maybe Zippy Chippy will take a shot at the Pacific Classic at Del Turfway next year........

Commentary for the BC Mile is an enigmatic exercise given the amount of speculation on what horses will in fact actually run in the race on October 27^th. Historically, some well accomplished milers have skipped the race to take a shot at the Classic (Starcraft, George Washington) or pass on the Cup races all together to stay in Europe.  

 
I would gladly provide a “Top Ten” list or something similar where like Nostradamus, I’m able to predict in order how the Mile will play out. I’ve already griped about the merits of “listing” on the Triple Crown trail, so I won’t completely revisit this topic other than to explain why you won’t see any listing in this space for the BC Mile at any time. By the way….did any of the Top 20 lists produce the winning five cent Icosa-Fecta (20 horses in exact order) in the Derby??

 
Here is my analysis of selected hopefuls in no particular order at this moment in time:

 
Shakespeare (25:1 Wynn Future Line) is an intriguing sort off that insane comeback effort on August 2^nd in an allowance race at the Spa. Closing from last to first in a race with some very nice foes (including Art Master), he looked powerful and well within himself. He will be pointed to the Woodbine Mile for a logically spaced prep race (September 16) before the BC Mile. Regression or something less than an all out effort in the Woodbine Mile would be fitting given that monster effort off the shelf, so even a lukewarm showing in that race would substantiate a trip to the Jersey Shore. It certainly is easy to forget that Shakespeare went postward as the second choice in the 2005 BC Turf, where he ran up the track over the Belmont sod. This race has produced some winners off of long layoffs (Da Hoss) and some off lightly raced grass campaigns (War Chant). Look out.

 
After Market (10:1 Wynn Future Line) is listed as the leading candidate by accumulated points within the division…However, I would be surprised to see him in the Mile based on recent events. He was a scratch in the 1 ¼ Mile Arlingon Million with softer turf conditions than the connections were seeking. According to a Blood Horse article on 8/11/2007, trainer John Sheriffs is hinting at running the Storm Cat colt in the BC Classic. If they pass on the Classic, the Turf is a more likely spot for After Market as his next proposed race is in the 1 3/8 Mile Del Mar Handicap.  

Kip Deville (20:1 Wynn Future Line/15% supplement) is a four year old colt that has cooled off of late after an explosive string of Graded Stakes wins. He took the Grade III Sir Beaufort, the day after Christmas at Santa Anita in a race against a tremendously deep field. Awesome Gem (2^nd) and Zann (3^rd) rounded out the Trifecta. Check out this list of also-rans: Porto Santo, In Summation, Get Funky, Bedlam Bertie, Lightning Hit, Like Running Water, Tent, Crested, and Sartorial. He followed that victory with a win in the Grade I Frank Kilroe Mile over Bayeux, Silent Name, and Porto Santo. His Graded Stakes Trifecta was capped with a win in the Makers Mark Mile at Keeneland over the ultra game Showing Up. Three excellent horses, Bayeux, Sky Conqueror, and Remarkable News, were also-rans in this contentious heat showing he is very tough on his best form. Since that impressive run, Kip Deville threw in two clunkers at Hollywood Park and failed to make much noise in the Oceanport at Monmouth. His recent performance is suspect, but any return to form from earlier in the year puts him in the mix. He could just need a freshening off a busy 2007 campaign. The ownership of Kip Deville will need to pony up the supplemental fee to enter. This is a colt that might have peaked early in the year and may never revert back to that brilliance. Stay tuned.

 
Crossing the Line (30:1 Wynn Future Line prior to the Del Mar Mile/15% supplement) improved to 5 out of 6 lifetime and earned an automatic berth to the BC Mile with his game ¾ length victory in the Del Mar Mile. He was tested for after two consecutive Optional Claiming scores over the weeds at Hollywood Park. The bullet drill in 1:12 and 4/5 over the surface hinted he was sitting on a big one and the betting public made him the 2:1 second choice (M/L 9:2). Michael Baze might have moved the disappointing Out of Control to the lead a bit prematurely after contesting a quick early pace, but there was likely no stopping Crossing the Line today. The final time was scary good, so this guy clearly is a talent to keep an eye on. The relative strength of this field was a bit weak, but you have to admire the consistency of this lightly raced five year old gelding. Not sold.

Continued tomorrow……

This is my last post for the next few weeks, as I'm packing up and moving to the east coast where I can get a decent piece of pizza. A complete BC Mile update is forthcoming.......

There are perhaps a handful of memories over the span of a lifetime that will remain etched in your mind that you will never forget. Some of these recollections are positive, others negative, but nonetheless unforgettable.

While this may strike some as odd, or even sad (probably not so on this site, since we are all horseplayers), something I’ll never in my lifetime forget is the experience I have encountered at Canterbury Park over the past two years.

Three summers ago, I decided to start playing in handicapping tournaments and local qualifiers. While participating in my first HPWS event, I met a friendly guy that was formerly an employee of the track in the IT Department. I fared well in the tournament and earned a birth to Vegas and enjoyed sitting with him.

On the morning of the first tournament day, I was disappointed as I found myself sitting at a cramped table with about 8 other people. I’m actually a pretty nice person, but when it comes to strangers, I can do completely without. Especially when it comes to handicapping….I prefer a quiet environment with a handful of friends. In summary, taking a cue from standardized test lingo, “McCarron is to strangers at a crowded table as oil is to water (or Southern California racing is to quality full fields)”.

A bit peeved at the start of day one, I enter the restroom and actually observe the following conversation from a guy on the phone at the urinal:

Guy on cell phone: "I need you to put some money in my account"

Voice from Guy's cell phone (which I could also hear): "Where do you want me
to get the money?"

Guy on phone: "From the safe"

I love this game.

As I was leaving the restroom, someone taps me on the shoulder. I turn around, and it’s the Canterbury IT dude. I had no idea that he qualified, but was happy to see a familiar face. We ended up sitting together in the “third room” at the HPWS. This room is the farthest from the masses, very quiet, and if you’re lucky, you can get a solid glimpse of the Maven wearing that yellow European “football” jersey he seems to enjoy. I’m trying to determine if there is a pattern to the jersey lineup. Does he wear a red Manchester United jersey on the final day of the tournament ala Tiger?

Anyway, I strike up a friendship with him and later end up getting invited up to the pressbox at Canterbury Park, as he is friends with the track announcer, media director, and paddock analyst. I started sitting up there on a regular basis about two years ago and as a horseplayer, it’s the ideal place.

First and foremost, most of the handful of Pressbox regulars (especially when the track is dark to live racing) is extremely knowledgeable about the game without being arrogant or annoying. We are able to share opinions and split tickets without hesitation. It’s the kind of group that you feel completely comfortable with; people pay each other back like clockwork when tickets fail to materialize and when it’s time to cash, the transaction is instantaneous.

The setup is like a horseplayer naughty dream. The third floor room is perched away from the OTB masses. The room is equipped with a couch, Laz-E-Boy chair, several chairs and tables, two SAM machines, a computer, a stocked fridge, and most importantly, about twenty televisions. We can scan all the tracks with remarkable efficiency given this ideal setup.

All of the regulars have steady jobs, so there aren’t degenerate gamblers up there firing away race after race and complaining about their “bad luck” when losing with that method. We are constantly entertained by a local radio personality that frequents the track and always give each other crap about bad touts from the past. It is truly a unique situation and fantastic group of people. We were actually profiled in a second page sports section article in the Minneapolis Star Tribune. Pretty fun stuff….. 

Yesterday was my last day as a “regular” of the Pressbox. It was tough walking away from such a great handicapping experience, but all good things eventually come to an end. It’s something I’ll never forget.

Contrary to the catchy Del Mar slogan, "cool as ever", the quality of racing really isn't "cool" at all......

Saratoga and Del Mar are often linked as quality boutique meets in serene settings. For the longest time, both have been synonymous with a high quality of racing. They are often described in a similar manner and discussed with the same enthusiasm. An increase of handicapping products is offered for both meets as handicappers look forward to the opening day of each with fervor and vigor.

Clearly, this is an age that Del Mar should no longer be mentioned in the same breath as Saratoga. While the majestic ocean views, crisp coastal air, and style of southern California is still evident, the quality of racing is an absolute joke in 2007. Del Mar is a sad skeleton of its former self. 45% of the races run in the first week of the meet were claimers, compared to 16% for opening week at the spa. Furthermore, the once proud jockey colony of Southern California is now remarkably average (at best). Consider the early Top 10 jockey standings of Saratoga versus Del Mar:

Del Mar:

M. Baze

C. Nakatani

J. Talamo

V. Espinoza

D. Flores

M. Smith

A. Gryder

M. Garcia

R. Migliore

A. Quinonez

Saratoga:

G. Gomez

J. Velasquez

E. Prado

R. Bejarano

J. Castellano

C. Velasquez

K. Desormeaux

C. Borel

E. Coa

R. Dominguez

That list of top jocks at Del Penn National is hardly reminiscent of McCarron, Pincay, Stevens, Delahoussaye, Antley, Valenzuela, and the like. No disrespect to the young talent of Talamo and M. Baze, both are exciting riders with an outstanding future. However, that list from top to bottom is as weak as it has ever been.

To make matters even worse for Del River Downs, countless trainers have complained about the relative difference between the Poly surface in the morning versus later in the afternoon. According to anecdotal accounts, the track is firm in the morning and becomes looser as the day moves along.

There was once an argument about which coast was supreme, especially in terms of summer racing. The only rational current argument is how many light years better Saratoga is in comparison to, "where the surf meets the turf or, as it should be said, where inconsistent rubber, wax, and sand meet claimers".