McCarron

Due to an anonymous contact at the U.S. State Department, I was able to secure a copy of the tape recorded transcripts from a May 7^th encounter at the Oval Office between Calvin Borel, George W. Bush, and Queen Elizabeth:

GW: Hey Calvin, I like nicknames, so I’m gonna call you, “Cal”.

CB: Yessir.

GW:  Cal, Congrats on winning the Louisville Derby. You must be thrilled with winning the most prestigious American race. It’s a great race. Not like the those sissy races they run in France the wrong way.

CB: Yessir, it was my lifelong dream to win the Kentucky Derby. Never in a million years would I have thunk it were possible for me to win this here race.

GW: I heard you are basically illiterate and wanted to personally thank you for your commitment to avoiding pre-marital sex. It’s the best way to prevent diseases.

Unidentified White House Staffer: Mr. President, Mr. Borel has a tough time reading because he is essentially illiterate. I believe you are confusing the terms, “illiterate” and “celibate”.

GW: [giggles like a four year old that took a cookie without his mother knowing]. Cal, I’ve made it clear from day one I have no interest in reading. Don’t you feel bad about that one bit! You aren’t missing a thing!

CB: I ain’t feeling too bad about it sir. Thanks for you concern.

GW: Atta boy slim! So where are you from?

CB: Louisiana, born and bred.

GW: I had a friend that used to work down there, Brownie. He was doing a “heckueva” job down there with the whole Katrina thing. I like Brownie a lot. You’d like to him too Cal, he was a horse guy before I made him the head of FEMA. He didn’t race horses, but he was a show horse guy. The liberals made me fire him because people didn’t have power, food, water, safety, shelter, or any hope for a decent life and they called him names like inept. I was totally bummed, but he’s doing fine.

CB: Yessir, what an awful storm that was.

GW: So, how did you get your start riding horses?

CB: I started on small bush tracks back home at a very early age. I’ve been ridin’ horses all my life.

GW: I don’t own any racetracks Cal, so I’m a little confused.

GW: So tell me little man, what are you planning on doing now that you’ve won the Derby?

CB: I reckon I’ll be doing the same thing I always did-ride horses and enjoy life. This ain’t gonna change me one bit. I turned down a chance to be on Jay Leno because I needed to work some horses for my brother.

GW: Tiny, I’m glad you did. Leno is always making jokes about me. I’m the President of the United States and no one should say mean things about me because I’m always right.  

GW: Tiny, how would like to meet her majesty, the Queen of England?

CB: Ah shucks, that would be just great. Unreal! Me, Calvin Borel, meeting the Queen!

GW: Calvin, her majesty, the Queen of England.

CB: It’s a pleasure to meet you ma’am.

QE: The pleasure is all mine young man. Congratulations on winning the Kentucky Derby. It was a marvelous race, you must be so proud.

CB: Yes Ma’am, thank you kindly.

QE: I’ve been attending the races at Royal Ascot for 265 years. I enjoy it so. I almost enjoy as much as having my Butler make me afternoon tea or when my servants brush my teeth at night.

GW: [barely audible in background speaking to a staffer] I told you she was really old.

CB: Yes Ma’am, I reckon that must be quite nice.

QE: I love the sport of Kings. I have the exclusive rights over all of Dog racing, it’s the sport of Queens you know, but I find the horse races to be so much classier. Dog racing has this strange little wager called a ‘Quinella” that I find very childish. I do recall one year the management team at Biscayne Kennel Club cordially invited me to visit. I had my personal letter writer respectfully decline the offer.

GW: Have you ever been to the horse races in France? They’re sissies! [snickers-the others ignore him like he is a child-it’s best not to encourage him].

GW: So, QEII, Cal, let’s say we head out to this formal dinner. I hope it’s steak tonight, I love meat. The chocolate cake is great for dessert. I told my guy Raul in the kitchen to bring out the chocolate cake since Lizzie is here and it’s a special occasion. Let’s also hope there are no liberals there.

CB: I can only eat six raisins, a carrot stick, and half a race cake, but steak sure do sound nice!

The morning after the Derby is the most introspective day on the horse racing calendar. After all, post Derby handicapping is a significantly easier endeavor than pre Derby handicapping. May 6, 2007 is a day that I feel more gratified than any other Derby “day-after” in my fifteen years of following the race closely.  The validation for my feelings is three-fold:

 
1. Connection to the horse: On the weekend of September 8-10, a group of horse racing enthusiasts from Canterbury went to Arlington to attend a different track upon the completion of the live meet. While the weather failed to cooperate, we managed to witness Street Sense and his third place effort in the sloppy renewal of the Arlington-Washington Breeders’ Cup Futurity. Although Officer Rocket and Gotthelastlaugh won that race in a dead heat, there was something about the horse that compelled two members of the Canterbury contingent to place Kentucky Derby future wagers on Street Sense. There is nothing more gratifying as a handicapper to have picked the Derby winner as a two year old, the October before the race. Nice work fellas.

 
2. Defeating Tyranny: The 2007 Kentucky Derby featured a full 20 horse field. Of this assemblage of horseflesh, five were trained by Todd Pletcher, two by Steve Asmussen, and two by Doug O’ Neill. This means that nine of the total twenty Derby horses were trained by three men that as of Derby Day, started 1343 horses in 2007. The combined number of starters in 2007 spread across the remainder of the Derby trainers was 736, which includes the 315 starters of Northern California legend Jerry Hollendorfer.

Before the race, I found an interesting juxtaposition between the corporate type barn run by Todd Pletcher and the small barn of an experienced and brilliant trainer like Carl Nafzger. It’s hard for me to root for a guy like Pletcher, moving from stall to stall in his expensive imported suit, helping out with the pre race duties in the paddock for five horses. I think of Nafzger as the guy that owns the neighborhood hardware store, Pletcher is Home Depot.

Count this as a huge victory for quality old school connections. Nafzger, an unheralded, yet brilliant trainer always seems to have a target and a plan for his animals. He sets the plan in motion from day one. He knows his horses, and he gets the best out of them. A fixture on the Midwestern jockey scene for years, Calvin Borel has always been vastly underrated on the national scene. Those of us that follow the sport closely all have a story about a longshot that Calvin Borel guided home with a well timed ride. He’s been a rock of consistency forever and will now receive the attention he deserves on a national level.

3. Financial: In my group of horseplayer friends, we managed to cash Derby Future tickets on Street Sense at a big number along with the Derby Exacta, Trifecta, and Pick 4 ending in that race. This was not the biggest hit of any of our lives, but due the circumstances surrounding this horse, its connections, and what it symbolized, I was yelling at the top of my lungs for this horse in the stretch. My apologies to those around us watching the race…..people that truly love this game understand the emotions involved with believing in a horse for reasons beyond financial gain.

You can’t help but be extremely impressed by Hard Spun. If Street Sense weren’t a superstar in the making, Hard Spun takes the Derby in impressive style. After seeing the ½, ¼, and 6f splits, how many people thought Hard Spun would dig in and fight like he did? 22.96-46.26-111.13 as the front runner are fractions worthy of fading to dead last. Wow.

How many of the 19 DRF writers with picks in the Saturday Form correctly touted the Derby Exacta? Zero, although Lauren Stitch and Dave Liftin did have the correct top two in inverted order.

Wow. As of Friday evening, I find these three horses amongst the most underlaid entries I've ever seen in any race in my entire life:

Storm in May: 20-1-Nothing says Derby winner like Leyva/Kaplan

Imawildandcrazyguy: 18:1-This horse was 37:1 in the Florida Derby and finished 6th. 23-1 in the LA Derby and finished 4th. How can he be 18:1 for this race??

Tiago: 10-1-Cannot properly put this into words to describe this underlay

Here is some Derby overkill......I'll probably keep my wagers on the Derby simple with Pk3's and Pk4's and perhaps key Street Sense over 6-8 other horses in a single TRI.

I’m as excited as a kid on Christmas (or Hanukkah or Kwanzaa). What could be better than the Kentucky Derby and opening weekend at Belmont Park? The Kentucky Derby is the single most over handicapped, over analyzed race on the calendar and I love every last excruciatingly thorough detail. Below is my contribution to the body of handicapping literature on the 2007 Kentucky Derby. Good luck, have fun, and enjoy the, “Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports” (this year it will be more like the, “Most Exciting Two Minutes and Three and Three Fifth Seconds in Sports”). 

 (#1) Sedgefield (Leparoux/Miller) 50-1: The son of Smart Strike has yet to win a stakes race, graded or otherwise. Ridden by the best young rider in America, Julien Leparoux, Sedgefield possesses decent tactical speed. He ran a solid race in the Lane’s End, finishing a well beaten second behind fellow Derby starter Hard Spun. Ordinarily adept over the grass, he flopped in his last effort on turf finishing a disappointing 4^th in the Grade III Transylvania at Keeneland.  

Prognosis: This consistent colt appears overmatched. Longshot to crack the Superfecta.

(#2) Curlin (Albarado/Asmussen) 7-2: The most revered horse on the Road to Kentucky, Curlin has won his three career starts by a combined total of 28.5 lengths. His natural ability is evident in the ease of his stride and the way he eats up ground. There is no doubt that this horse is immensely talented. However, he will attempt to buck two longstanding Derby trends: 

1. The last horse to win the Derby without a start at age 2 was Apollo in 1882
2. The last horse to win the Derby with 3 career starts was Regret in 1915

In this era of racing, where horses come up to the Derby with less seasoning and lighter two and three year old campaigns, these two longstanding trends will someday be broken.

Prognosis: While I’m not a huge believer in blindly eliminating horses based on longstanding trends such as those listed above, I do feel that accepting Curlin with odds in the range of 5:2 – 5:1 (which is where he will likely be on Saturday) is an illogical wager in the win pool. There are much easier spots to find a horse in this odds range without a 20 horse field and without bucking 125 year old historical improbabilities. His huge talent may get him past the wire on top (and I’ll be the first to applaud such a marvelous and talented animal should he win), but there are too many question marks for me to endorse in the win position.

 (#3) Zanjero (Bridgmohan/Asmussen) 30:1: This colt out of Cherokee Run is a steady performer, hitting the board in seven of eight lifetime starts. In his three year old debut, he ran a big race off of an eight week layoff and finished a respectable third in the Risen Star at the Fairgrounds. He followed up that effort with two other third place finishes, beaten six lengths by Circular Quay in the Louisiana Derby and a head by Dominican and Street Sense in the Blue Grass. This colt prefers a stalking style and my concern is his lack of wins with the favorable pace scenarios he has encountered. He was perfectly placed for a huge run off of fast early fractions in the Louisiana Derby and still finished six lengths behind Circular Quay. Ditto in the Risen Star when he was beaten handily by Notional despite healthy fractions up front.

Prognosis: Not much of a threat to win the race even under the best of pace scenarios, but could still end up on the board if the pace is extremely hot early. I’m passing on this colt.     

 (#4) Storm in May (Leyva/Kaplan) 30:1: He finished second, beaten over ten lengths behind Curlin in his previous start in the Arkansas Derby. This colt is badly outclassed. One positive: He is the second most experienced colt in the race with thirteen career starts.

Prognosis: Pass.  

(#5) Imawildandcrazyguy (Guidry/Kaplan) 50:1: Please refer to #4 “May, Storm in”. Another overmatched William Kaplan trainee, this colt has two career wins (both at Calder); a Maiden Special Weight and an Optional Claimer. He is technically still eligible for non-winners of three lifetime Allowance company. I wouldn’t select him to win the Guam Derby.

Prognosis: Pass. An underlay at anything less than 75:1.

(#6) Cowtown Cat (Jara/Pletcher) 20:1: This son of Distorted Humor is one of the five potential Derby starters for “Super-Trainer” Todd Pletcher. This versatile colt is a perfect two for two in route races after mixed results sprinting. His four career victories were all at different distances (5.5F, 6.5F, 1 Mile, 1 1/8 mile) and on different racetracks (Belmont, Gulfstream, Aqueduct, Hawthorne) including consecutive victories in the Grade III Gotham and Grade II Illinois Derby. His recent five furlong drill at Keeneland was impressive and he looks to be peaking at the right time.

Prognosis: Cowtown Cat will provide some pari-mutuel value in the exotics pools and is a solid longshot candidate with an outside chance to win the race if others fail to fire. A good price play.

(#7) Street Sense (Borel/Nafzger) 4:1: This Street Cry colt is one of the more exciting young horses to hit the scene in the past few years. A runaway ten length winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill, Street Sense is attempting to buck the historical trend of BC Juvenile Champions flopping in the Derby or failing to even make the starting gate. No BC Juvenile winner has ever gone on to wear the Roses. I’m a firm believer that trends and records are meant to be broken and this is the horse that can break the jinx. His comeback effort in the Tampa Bay Derby off of a four month layoff was nothing short of remarkable. His game second place effort in the most bizarre horse race I’ve ever seen (and I’ve seen a lot of horse races), the 2007 Blue Grass, was also a great effort. He is training lights out at Churchill, a track he positively loves. I have a feeling we have not seen his best to date. His trainer, Carl Nafzger managed Unbridled brilliantly in 1990 and is a consummate pro.

Prognosis: The one to beat in the 133^rd running of the Kentucky Derby.

(#8) Hard Spun (Pino/Jones) 15:1: This son of Danzig is a solid five for six lifetime. His lone defeat occurred over the Oaklawn strip that his trainer, Larry Jones, said he didn’t handle well. He drew off powerfully in his last start, the Grade II Lane’s End at Turfway from just off the pace on a track that was favoring speed all day. The six week gap between the Lane’s End and the Derby is concerning because it was unplanned. In the case of Circular Quay, his layoff was planned and the appropriate training schedule was considered well in advance. I’m a bit concerned about Hard Spun’s handling between starts and his ludicrously fast 5 furlong drill in 57.60 seconds on Monday. It was as impressive as it is troubling. It shows the horse has some serious talent, but it also is too quick too close to the big race. That is the kind of drill you might see a champion sprinter in southern California turn out.

Prognosis: Legitimate threat to hit the board even with the suspect six week gap. Plenty of upside on this Danzig colt, but a lot of unanswered questions still loom.

(#9) Liquidity (Flores/O’Neill) 30:1: The once promising Tiznow colt owns only one single victory out of nine career races and has disappointed after a good effort in the Grade III Sham in his initial three year old race. In his two most recent races, he faded badly in the final 1/8 mile. At this point, there is little to recommend.

Prognosis: Longshot to hit the Superfecta.

(#10) Teuflesberg (Elliot/Sanders) 30:1: The former Nick Zito assistant Jamie Sanders trains this hard knocking colt that is a talented animal much better suited for distances between six and eight furlongs. His front running, sprinter speed should help ensure an honest pace. I admire the tenacity of this colt that runs routing distances on pure guts.

Prognosis: The only scenario that gets Teuflesberg in the Superfecta is if he can somehow grab a completely uncontested lead and hope the track is severely biased toward speed. Even with a perfect setup, he is a tough one to back.   

(#11) Bwana Bull (Castellano/Hollendorfer) 50:1: This son of Holy Bull is based in Northern California and fared well against lesser competition on that circuit for hall of fame conditioner Jerry Hollendorfer. He shipped to Southern California for the Grade I Santa Anita Derby and finished a dull 5^th in a rather weak renewal of this Derby prep. He appears overmatched and would be better served in a different spot.

Prognosis: Longshot to crack the Superfecta

(#12) Nobiz Like Shobiz (C. Velasquez/Tagg) 8:1: Has been steady ever since he broke his maiden by almost eleven lengths last September at Belmont. Four for six lifetime (3 graded stakes wins), this Albert the Great colt lost his other two races by just over a full length combined. The only real knock on Nobiz Like Shobiz is his lack of progression since that smashing debut effort. He has basically run six similar races without getting to the next level. Trained by competent Derby winning conditioner Barclay Tagg, this horse is one that may be overlooked a bit as Pletcher, O’Neill, and Asmussen are more charismatic and media friendly than Tagg. As a brief aside, a doorknob is also more media friendly than Barclay Tagg.

Prognosis: Certainly has the talent to win this race if he shows slight improvement over his last. He could also provide some value in the win pool with the recent hype of Curlin, Street Sense, and the Pletcher contingent. More likely underneath, but the win is not out of the question. 

(#13) Sam P. (Dominguez/Pletcher) 20:1: Todd Pletcher trains 25% of the total derby starters this year and this is his weakest entrant. I’m not sure who or what the horse is named after, but I am a HUGE fan of former University of North Carolina and NBA star Sam Perkins. This colt disappointed as the favorite in his last effort in the Santa Anita derby where he was defeated by a horse that some considered a maiden (Tiago-won his previous race by a DQ) and a sprinter (King of the Roxy). This son of Cat Thief (1999 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner) is two for eight lifetime. If he were trained by someone other than Pletcher, the morning line on him would be closer to 40:1.   

Prognosis: Longshot to hit the board.

(#14) Scat Daddy (Prado/Pletcher) 10:1: Possibly the top hope for team Pletcher, this son of BC Juvenile champion Johannesburg is another consistent, but hardly spectacular performer. Like so many others on this list, he has yet to run a race all that much faster than his auspicious debut. His two recent victories at Gulfstream in the Grade II Fountain of Youth and Grade I Florida Derby were both at 1 1/8 miles, which is a plus. He finished a distant fourth, beaten 15 lengths by Street Sense (Circular Quay and Great Hunter were second and third) in his lone start over the Churchill strip in the 2006 BC Juvenile. He’s training well up to the Derby and comes to the race without huge knocks against him.

Prognosis:  I have never been a big fan of this colt and prefer others although there is no reason why Scat Daddy could not take this, or at least hit the board.

(#15) Tiago (Smith/Sheriffs) 15:1: The surprise winner of the Santa Anita Derby enters this race with only four career starts. After a third place effort in his debut race, Tiago finished second, but was later placed first through disqualification. His next effort produced a 7^th place finish in the return of Great Hunter in the Bob Lewis at Santa Anita (Sam P finished 2^nd). He encountered a troubled trip in that race and came back to win the Santa Anita Derby at almost 30:1. His bullet drill at six furlongs over the Cushion Track at 1:11.40 is very impressive leading up to the Derby. The connections are the same as the 2005 Kentucky Derby upset winner Giacomo.

Prognosis: This lightly raced colt is training well and has come out of nowhere to burst onto the Derby scene. The connections of the horse will erode a lot of his pari-mutuel value as people will recall the 2005 Derby. He is a big underlay at 15:1, but not without a chance at cracking the board if the pace is insane up front and he can navigate through the entire field just like……..Giacomo.   

(#16) Circular Quay (Velazquez/Pletcher) 8-1: This son of the 1995 Kentucky Derby champ (Thunder Gulch) is the winner of three graded stakes races, including a powerful stretch running effort in the Louisiana Derby. Todd Pletcher brings this horse to the Derby off of an unheard of eight week layoff. The steady stream of solid workouts since his last race is encouraging, so his fitness is probably not an issue. More concerning is his close from the clouds running style, which requires a fast pace and some luck. It is especially troubling given the typical traffic issues of a chaotic 20 horse field.

Prognosis: The layoff plus the running style are problematic enough to not recommend Circular Quay for the win despite his considerable talent. He is a threat for the exotics, but needs countless pieces to fall in place to win the race. It could happen, but he looms as a likely underlay on Derby Day.

(#17) Stormello (Desormeaux/Currin) 30:1: Stormello is out of the popular sire Stormy Atlantic. This is an animal that prefers to run on the lead and is ideally suited for shorter distances. He has both a Grade I and Grade II victory to his credit and is definitely a classy sort. He inherited the lead in the Florida Derby and despite relatively sane fractions, was unable to hold on, fading to fourth (beaten four lengths). Currin is attempting to teach Stormello to rate a bit off the pace, which is admirable, but too little too late, and not the strength of the horse. Teuflesberg and Stormello should hit the front together.      

Prognosis: Like Teuflesberg, he will need a ton of racing luck to be effective. Pass.

(#18) Any Given Saturday (Gomez/Pletcher) 30:1: I like the fact that he has never been off the board in his career, but trains up to the Derby without a graded stakes win in six lifetime starts. His lone race at Churchill was a solid effort in finishing a game second as a two year old to the highly regarded Tiz Wonderful in the Kentucky Jockey Club. His three year old campaign included a thrilling stretch battle with Street Sense in the Tampa Bay Derby where he was beaten by a short nose. He wasn’t asked for his best in the Wood, so the dull third place effort while racing wide on both turns is not a cause for huge concern. The sharp 5F work at Keeneland on April 22nd is an encouraging sign. Any Given Saturday is a son of Distorted Humor (sired 2003 Derby winner Funny Cide) from an A.P. Indy mare (Weekend in Indy), so the 1 ¼ distance should not be an issue.

Prognosis: Could contend on the win end with his best effort and should be included in exotic wagers.

(#19) Dominican (Bejarano/Miller) 20:1: All three victories from this son of El Corredor are over the Polytrack surface (two at Keeneland-one at Turfway). His bizarre victory in the Grade I Blue Grass featured crawling fractions early and a mad dash to the wire late, much like a European turf route. Dominican is plenty fit and ran a decent third at Churchill, beaten 6 ¼ lengths by TizWonderful in the Kentucky Jockey Club as a two year old. His pedigree doesn’t exactly scream 1 ¼ miles, but showed some grit at 1 1/8 in the Blue Grass.

Prognosis: His top Beyer figure on dirt is a troubling 90, so I will likely leave him off my tickets. He does have some positives and I cannot completely fault those adding him to the mix.

(#20) Great Hunter (Nakatani/O’Neill) 15-1: This consistent Aptitude colt has only missed the board once in his nine race career and that was in his most recent race, the Blue Grass, where he encountered serious traffic issues in the stretch. This California based horse has run against suspect competition and sports only one career Beyer figure above 90 (a 101 in his initial race as a three year old, the Grade II Robert Lewis). He possesses a quick turn of foot, but his past performances are a bit suspect compared to others in this event.

Prognosis: Could add some value to the exotics, but there are plenty of knocks against this colt.

In a farily predictable, yet unfortunate move, ESPN still has the link to horse racing news in the "holding pen" on their website. The main sports categories are listed on the left hand side of the homepage from top to bottom and read as follows:

NBA

MLB

NFL

NHL

NASCAR

Golf

College Football

Women's Basketball

Fantasy

Soccer

Boxing

Usually this time a year, Horse Racing gets the promotion from the black hole of the ESPN site to the main page. It is currently listed as a link on the far right of the page under the heading, "more +". Here is that list:

Scouts

Tennis

Boxing

College Sports

AFL

Horse Racing

Two days before the Derby and the sports that we love is listed under the Arena Football League and an entire page away from Women's Basketball and sports that are out of season. This is a new all-time low for press coverage of the Derby. At least we're ahead of lawn bowling and chess......

I do appreciate the little news blurb on yahoo!, "Derby Favorite Culin draws post 2". Wow, in depth reporting. It's also sad to watch the pathetic 24 hour ticker tape news on all the cable news channels. I actually saw this on the ticker: "Roadside bomb in Iraq Kills four" followed by "Curlin is Kentucky Derby Favorite"......How about that for perspective?

Hard Spun drilled a blistering 57.60 second 5F work at Churchill today. According to the Daily Racing Form, the next best drill went in 59.40. Local clockers have reported that Hard Spun was outfitted with a muzzle for the workout and failed to catch the mechanical bone.